Event Review- Mayor Steve Fulop at Zeppelin Hall in Jersey City

Believe it or not, there is life after the 2016 Presidential Election in politics. Immediately following that election, the race to replace Chris Christie in New Jersey will take center stage. To be certain, the field of contenders on the Democratic side will be crowded, as Christie is about as popular in New Jersey right now as the flu. Last night I went to see one of the potential contenders at a low-dollar fundraiser he held in Jersey City at Zeppelin Hall.

Steve Fulop puts on a solid event. The fundraiser cost just $20, you got two free drink tickets, and the room was packed to the rims. Fulop himself does a good presentation- it's short and sweet (I don't think he spoke ten minutes), and he spends the majority of his time at the event out working the room, shaking hands and taking pictures with damn near everyone who wanted to do so. The crowd was incredibly diverse, and a bit younger than I'm used to seeing at New Jersey political events. The venue he picked was awesome, very millennial friendly, and had both good food and a good selection to drink. Fulop's speech centered in on his achievements as Mayor, talking about his advocacy for many groups who need it. The guy certainly hit all the right notes. I'm also partial to a shorter speech- you lose people after a while. If it's a fundraiser, go out and shake everyone who donated's hand.

There's a long way to go in the race for Governor in New Jersey, and I hope to see all of the main Democratic contenders at least once this year. Fulop has a great story, but his youthfulness could cut both ways with a primary electorate in an odd numbered year. I took away that he and Ambassador Phil Murphy are probably going to battle for the mantle of being the progressive champion in this race, while he will have to battle over record against Senate President Steve Sweeney. From what I saw though, he's a solid candidate with a fairly large following to start with, and if he can sell his work in Jersey City as a work of progressive art, Fulop will have a good chance at victory.

NL East Predictions

Last season at this time, the question was whether or not the Washington Nationals would win 100 games and the World Series, or just the World Series. Ultimately a season broke out, and the Nats were the biggest disappointment in baseball. It was the New York Mets that walked off with not just the NL East, but the National League Pennant as well, before being splattered by the Royals in the World Series. Of course, this division was a tale of two worlds though, with the top two teams featuring a pennant, an MVP winner, and two no-hitters for another pitcher, while the bottom three teams were all fighting to not be MLB's worst for most of the season. This season doesn't figure to be much different.

Some players are gone that were fixtures in this division. Cole Hamels is gone. Jordan Zimmermann is gone. Both Chase Utley and Ruben Tejada are gone now, a sort of irony I didn't miss. New faces are all over. Ultimately though, I'm not sure the division changes much. Here's my outlook:

1. New York Mets (94-68)- The key to consistency is consistent pitching, and the Mets have that. In De Grom, Harvey, Syndergaard, and Matz, they have four absolute stud starters that are super young. In Bartolo Colon, they have a crafty old vet. When Wheeler returns, their pitching is lethal. They should be able to pitch their way to the top of the division. The knock on the Mets last year was their offense, an offense which they have focused in on since the middle of last season. While they will have their streaky moments, the Mets should get a big boost out of Cespedes and Conforto having full seasons. The key part of the Mets that will decide their season is their bullpen. If they can hold leads, they will probably win a lot of games.
2. Washington Nationals (88-74)- Whichever way this season goes, the Nationals are running out of "golden opportunities" to win the World Series. They have perhaps the best two pitchers even in this stacked division of aces, in Scherzer and Strasburg. On the other hand, behind that the rotation is a little more risky on paper than it was going into last season. The Nats feature the best player in the division right now, Bryce Harper, and hopefully for them, improved health from Rendon, Zimmerman, and Werth. I was really down on the Nats chances a week ago, but they had a good Spring. I still have real questions on whether or not these guys have the heart of a winning team.
3. Miami Marlins (75-87)- And now you've fallen over the canyon-side in this division. Jose Fernandez being healthy and pitching a whole season could dramatically change this prediction. The same could be said for Giancarlo Stanton, if he's in the outfield all season. Dee Gordon would have to be as good as last year. Marcell Ozuna would need a serious bounce back season too. Either way, at least Ichiro should get his 3,000th hit this season in Miami. With all of that said, this team does not appear to have the depth and consistency to really contend, and they disappointed majorly last year. I'm not holding out much hope.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (68-94)- Last season may have felt like rock bottom, but this season won't actually be as dramatically better as one may feel it is though. The Phillies will be a better team, mostly because they will be a younger, hungrier team. Gone are almost all of the aging veterans with large contracts and low productivity. There are still some placeholders, guys holding down spots until better prospects arrive, and that may be the case all season. Either way, the Phillies improved their starting pitching depth over the Winter and should hold up a little better than last season. Don't expect them to be any good though, they did lose 99 games last year. The expectation this season is that they will fight like hell to get out of last, and barely do so.
5. Atlanta Braves (65-97)- 2016 in Atlanta may be what 2015 was in Philadelphia. The Braves are not putting up much of a fight to win. Like the Phillies, they are in re-build mode, and stocking up on good, young arms. It's the right way to go for a team that just couldn't quite get over the hump. The only question is if they are bad enough, early enough to push them into moving any valuable pieces left. This is not a team that cares much about their wins and losses in 2016, and so I see them taking a turn in the basement.

Come See Chelsea Clinton in Philadelphia

For the second time in a row, the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary for President will be a competitive affair. Senator Bernie Sanders is in Pittsburgh today opening his office there, making his pitch for the nomination. Not trying to concede any ground, the Hillary Clinton campaign is making it's own announcement- Chelsea Clinton will do an election eve fundraiser/rally in Philadelphia on the behalf of the campaign. There will be many other events in the state, but very few events with such a personal touch. Tickets are $45, and you can buy them here. I hope you will join me to welcome the former and future First Daughter!

2016 Baseball Season- Game #1- Phillies @ Phillies Futures

Last year it took right down to the final day of the season, but I got to 40 professional baseball games. This year, we're getting a fast start, going to the first game of the season that I physically could, the Phillies "Futures Game" in Reading. Tonight's game will pit the Major League Phillies against their "top" 25 prospects. I haven't been down to Reading now in probably six or seven seasons, so tonight will mark a "return" of sorts.

"Baseballtown" is a great ballpark, and this year marks 50 years of the Phillies having a AA affiliate there. Players like Mike Schmidt, Ryne Sandberg, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, and Dave Hollins have made their way through the ballpark. Tonight hopefully shows us the next generation of stars- Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, J.P. Crawford, Roman Quinn, and Nick Williams, to name a few. These two teams will do battle again on Saturday in Philadelphia, a game I'm not likely to get to.

The Phillies come in off of a good Spring, having passed the magic 15 win mark in Florida. That means absolutely nothing once Monday comes along, but it does have me feeling better about the season. Tonight they send Brett Oberholtzer to the mound, a lefty they picked up in the Ken Giles deal who had a solid season last year for the Wild Card winning Houston Astros as a starter. Oberholtzer will start the season in the bullpen, but tonight is a bullpen game, and a chance to get a look at a lot of pitchers trying to nail down the last spots.

The goal for tonight? Find some of them good Berks hot dogs. I'll stay the hell out of that pool in right, it's too cold yet, but hopefully tonight we'll get a good look at a lot of the top prospects in the system, especially the ones I won't see all season in Allentown.

No One is Stealing The Nomination for Hillary Clinton

Let's be clear here for a second- a candidate needs 2,383 delegates to win the Democratic nomination for President. They need 2,026 to win the elected delegate count. There is no rule saying this must come from the elected delegate count, or that we can't count super-delegates until the convention in July, or anything else. The popular vote has literally no influence on this process, or Hillary would have won in 2008. The Democratic system of nominating a candidate was agreed to before the election began, and Senator Sanders' campaign made no issue with it prior to this year's events.

I'm hearing a lot of complaining though. There are complaints that the "corporate media" is trying to make it look like Bernie can't win by including the super-delegates. They are complaining that the press is covering this race as though Clinton is way ahead, and she's not. They are complaining that the super-delegates aren't listening to them, as though that is somehow a part of this. Basically, there is a belief that this race is being stolen for Secretary Clinton, amongst some.

It's not. Let's step back for a minute here. According to the AP, at this time (an important note, because state conventions for caucus states will change this a little), Hillary Clinton leads the elected delegate count 1,243 to 975. We will put aside the super-delegates for a minute and remind everyone that a 268 elected delegate lead is based on election results, the preferences of Democratic voters. Let's also remember that Barack Obama never held an elected delegate lead of anywhere near 268. In fact, President Obama did not win enough elected delegates to win the nomination, and got the remainder he needed amongst the super-delegates. There are 1,747 remaining pledged delegates out there- around 1,300 of which reside in California, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Indiana, and Wisconsin, all states that Clinton leads in the polls. They will all be apportioned proportionally to the results of those primaries. In other words, even if Bernie gets all of these states to 50/50 splits, if Clinton took home 650 delegates from these states, she'd only need another 133 or so in the Bernie-supporting states to win the elected delegate count. That's a low bar for her. Bernie has to not just catch her in these states, he has to beat her badly in a few of them- and that's just amongst the pledged, elected delegates that the voters got to pick. It's hard to say that Hillary is not the choice of the Democratic Party if she wins the elected delegate count, right?

But let's say you want the super-delegates to change their mind, and back the will of the people- something that some Bernie supporters are directly saying to super-delegates. This is not a requirement of the super-delegates by any stretch, but it's a standard that some want to apply to them. By that standard, Hillary Clinton has a popular vote lead of 2,526,500 according to Real Clear Politics. This number stands to grow if she wins in the states I mentioned above- like the delegate count would- and undercuts the whole argument of "the corporate elites pushing back against the political revolution." If the super-delegates simply follow the popular vote to make their decisions, Hillary wins then too. Again, in order to change that, Bernie must change the status of the race in some of the biggest states in the country.

If Bernie Sanders manages to come back and win the elected delegate count, I absolutely believe and hope that the super-delegates would give him a hard-earned victory. To not do so would destroy the Democratic Party and divide us permanently. While the odds are stacked against that happening, i'll entertain the impossible and say that if it does, we should nominate him. It's not happening right now though, because the voters are not choosing it. This isn't about the corporate elite, the Democratic Party, super-delegates, or anyone else "stealing" the nomination from Bernie Sanders and his political revolution- the Democratic voters are rejecting it, by every standard, and choosing Secretary Clinton. Calling her a corporatist, not a progressive, corrupt, or any other negative term, is not productive to changing anyone's mind, by the way.

With the state of the race as it is, I will just say that I do count the super-delegates- because the current results give no rational reason to assume they will change their mind. If Clinton reaches a combined 2,383 delegates, using both elected and super-delegates, at any time in the next two months, I will personally begin to view her as the presumptive nominee of our party. If something changes in the race, that is fine, but we have the system we have. By no metric is Hillary leading a "rigged" race. She leads 1,243-975 amongst elected delegates. She leads 1,712-1,004 amongst all delegates. By every metric, she is ahead.

Don't mistake this for a call for Bernie Sanders to drop out, his supporters to stop trying, or anything else. As I said above, if Sanders ends up flipping Wisconsin, New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland this month coming up, he may just have a shot to win this yet. If that doesn't happen though, people will have to face the fact that the voters didn't choose it. So for now, the Sanders supporters should get on their phones, call voters, knock on doors, and do anything they can to try and win the nomination- that's their right. Just don't claim the party is taking away the opportunity though.

The White House Makes a Daring Endorsement in the PA Senate Primary

I don't have strong feelings about the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate Primary. I could vote for McGinty, Sestak, or Fetterman in November without reservation against Pat Toomey. Apparently, President Obama and Vice-President Biden have a strong preference:

“I am proud to endorse Katie McGinty to be Pennsylvania’s next United States Senator,” said President Barack Obama. “Katie is a true champion for working families, with a proven record of taking on big challenges and delivering for people. She spent her entire career working to promote clean energy and combat climate change, and worked closely with my administration to implement the Affordable Care Act and expand Medicaid coverage to more than 500,000 Pennsylvanians. I know Katie will take that same tenacity and drive with her to the Senate to ensure affordable, available heath care, to protect Social Security and Medicare, and to uphold and enforce Wall Street reforms.”

“Pennsylvania is near and dear to my heart, and there is no one better to represent its working men and women in the Senate than Katie McGinty,” said Vice President Joe Biden. “As the ninth out of ten children, the daughter of a restaurant hostess and a police officer, she knows what it means to work hard, struggle to make ends meet, and build a better life, one day at a time. Katie’s voice is sorely needed in the Senate to advocate for equal pay for women, a raise in the minimum wage, college affordability, and a quality education for every child. I am thrilled to endorse Katie McGinty because she’ll be there for Pennsylvania’s middle class families, day in and day out.”

It is quite a statement to have the President and Vice-President endorse McGinty. McGinty is losing pretty badly to Joe Sestak in primary polling. She needs to win the undecideds by a large margin, meaning they need to do a lot more than just a press release endorsing her. McGinty will need physical support, in the form of ads and campaign stops, from the White House.

I have no problem with the President and Vice-President weighing in on the next U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, both served in that institution and are probably following the race. What's daring isn't that they did this endorsement, but the perceived commitment that it brings to the race moving forward. Katie McGinty will have a tough road ahead to the nomination. The White House has married itself to driving her there.

The Phillies Roster, 3/29

The Phillies have kept busy in the past few days. Gone to the minors are Adam Morgan, Luis Garcia, Elvis Araujo, David Lough, and Ryan Jackson. Out of the organization is Edward Mujica. What's the roster look like now?

• The Rotation- Jeremy Hellickson, Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vince Velasquez are all in the rotation, barring injury. There are no other starters in camp, and the decisions seem made. Adam Morgan, David Buchanan, Alec Asher, and Severino Gonzalez all appear to be sticking around on the 40 man roster for now, but in the minors. Matt Harrison will head to the 60-Day DL as well here.
• The Line-Up- Cesar Hernandez appears set to lead-off and play second base. Odubel Herrera is a lock to hit high in the order and play center. Maikel Franco appears ready to break out in a big way this season at third base. Peter Bourjos looks set to play in left to start the season. Freddy Galvis will be our shortstop early on. There appears to be a platoon at first base- Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf. There also looks like a platoon is coming in right field between Tyler Goeddel and Wil Venable. Finally, behind the plate I expect Cameron Rupp and Carlos Ruiz to share the load.
• The Bench- This leaves two spots on the roster. Andres Blanco has won one of them already. While it is possible that Venable could still lose out on a spot, it's likely that he has one, and this is a fight between Emmanuel Burriss and Cedric Hunter. Because of his versatility, lower long-term value, and good Spring, I believe Emmanuel Burriss will win the last spot. Cody Asche will start on the 15-Day DL, while Aaron Altherr will start on the 60-Day DL. Jorge Alfaro, Darnell Sweeney, Taylor Featherston, and Roman Quinn will occupy 40 man roster spots in the minors, for now.
• Bullpen- It appears that David Hernandez, Brett Oberholtzer, Jeanmar Gomez, and Dalier Hinojosa are the locks. That leaves James Russell and Daniel Stumpf on the left-handed side, and Andrew Bailey, Ernesto Frieri, and Hector Neris to battle on the right-handed side. I believe that Daniel Stumpf is the safest bet of the bunch, because as a Rule 5 guy, the Phillies have to keep him or give him back. I think the Phillies will also add Ernesto Frieri after a late-Spring surge, as he can opt out this week, and they could use a power arm late in games. That leaves one more spot. Neris has options, but a roster spot, complicating the decision on him. Bailey pitched well early in camp, but has fallen off a bit, and Manager Pete Mackanin has been critical of his command and velocity of late. James Russell has been solid, and the Phillies have stated a willingness to carry three lefties. I'm betting on James Russell for the last spot. The Phillies will 60-Day DL Mario Hollands, while Colton Murray, Edubray Ramos, Jimmy Cordero, Luis Garcia, Elvis Araujo, Hector Neris, and Michael Mariot will be on the 40 man roster, but in the minors.

All of this leaves one small problem- 41 players would have to be on the 40 man roster to make this team look this way. Could the Phillies send Stumpf back? Sure. Given their desire to stockpile younger arms though, that doesn't make the most sense at this stage. One would expect they will try and get through the season with him. Expect that Buchanan, Gonzalez, Featherston, Mariot, and Garcia all are the players on the hot-seat, assuming the Phillies don't trade someone out to a team in need. If the Phillies 60-Day DL Harrison, Altherr, and Hollands, they will only need to Designate For Assignment one more player to keep to 40 players. It's also worth noting that Bailey (May 1st), Russell (June 1st), and Frieri (Thursday) all have opt outs in their contract, and that Burriss would be the likely odd man out when Asche returns, and he does not have option at this time, meaning a 40 man spot could come open by May.

Elect John Morganelli

No Empathy for the "Bernie or Bust" Crowd

This is too much.

I support Hillary Clinton for President. If Bernie Sanders defeats her and wins the nomination, I will vote for Bernie Sanders in November with no reservations. No, I don't think he can win the nomination. Yes, I would be on board immediately if he does.

When you line up either candidate against Donald Trump, there is no way you can support one but not the other. Neither wants to build a wall. Neither degrades women in public. Neither wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Neither is calling for a ban on Muslims. Against Ted Cruz, it's not really any different. Hillary and Bernie are closer to each other on the issues than they are to Trump and Cruz. Can you find some exceptions to the rule? Yeah, I'm sure you can. Overall, am I right? Yeah, I am.

When someone says they will never vote for Hillary Clinton if she's the nominee, or that they would back Trump, I stopped begging them not to. I'm not going to reward immature political thought. If you believe in Bernie's plans to regulate the banks, make health care universal, or make college more affordable, the second best candidate on those issues for you is Hillary Clinton.  If you support Hillary on equal pay for women, gun control, and access to abortion rights, the candidate closest to your position after her is Bernie Sanders. If you're going to threaten to vote Republican, sit home, or vote for Green Party nominee Jill Stein because you don't get your way in the primary process, no one should treat that as a rational position. That's the equivalent of a toddler stamping their feet because they want candy before dinner.

Eight years ago, I was not happy when then-Senator Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination. I preferred Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and even John Edwards at one point. I became fully committed to Senator Obama's cause only after Sarah Palin came on the scene in August of 2008. I pulled it together, voted for him, and even attended his inauguration then. Eight years later, I am happy to say that President Obama has exceeded every expectation I had. He has advanced many of the causes I care so much about. Was he my preference? No. Would I have picked him over Dodd, Biden, or Clinton if I could do it again? Probably not. Am I glad that I pulled it together and voted for the person I agreed with more? Yes, I am. The world is better off for it.

If you want a President who generally agrees with President Obama more than Donald Trump, you have to vote for Clinton or Sanders in November. If you want a more progressive Supreme Court, a President who protects this President's legacy, and a better Congress than we have, you have to support the candidates who are closer to your beliefs. Can you fight hard for your candidate through the end of the primaries? Yes, you should. Just be ready to be one team when we get to June. I certainly will support either.

For this reason, I'm not interested in appeasing the "Bernie or Bust" crowd right now. If someone says they won't vote for Clinton, I tell them don't. I remind them though that they are essentially voting for Donald Trump. You usually get the "she's the same" garbage then, which is fine, because it's so ridiculous. We have elections. One candidate gets to win the nomination. That's it. There is no negotiating that. We have a system, it is carried out, and someone wins it. It's not necessarily true that someone has to "lose" the process (they can have huge input on the platform, the rules, the speakers, and other matters), and the other candidates can influence the future of the party. I suspect Bernie will be important in all of those matters. He's earned that. Some of his more abrasive supporters should embrace that, rather than make ridiculous and immature threats.

Let's Get Real About Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders wasn't supposed to be here. We all know that he was not supposed to even be competitive for the Democratic nomination. The Vermont Senator tells us over and over again about how he was down 70 points, and now he's competitive. We get it. He's done very well in the face of long odds. Hillary did have the establishment support. The media didn't want to initially give Bernie fair coverage. All of that is true, but he isn't going to be the Democratic nominee.

I think Bernie has run a better campaign than Hillary Clinton. I have some friends on that campaign, and they are all really good at what they do. This isn't about staff though. This is about getting elected President. It's about math. On those metrics, Hillary Clinton has simply won this race. Sure, Bernie has moved her left on the issues, and sure, he has put his top issues front-and-center in the Democratic nomination fight. Those are the only metrics on which he has won. No, regardless of what some half-baked Huffington Post writer puts out about Hillary needing to drop out, the truth is that she is on her way to victory.

First off, despite how it may feel to some Bernie supporters, Saturday did not change anything. After all the delegates are apportioned, Bernie will have picked up less delegates for three blowout wins on Saturday than Hillary picked up for Florida. Most of his victory will be erased by New York on April 19th, by itself. She holds double-digit leads in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland, and has recent leads of note in Wisconsin and California. While Bernie cites his one national poll lead last week, he's getting beaten pretty badly in all the rest. If we wanted to treat this as a national primary instead of a state-by-state contest, Hillary holds a commanding lead in the "popular vote," which is meaningless to who wins, but shows us the will of the public. What does matter, the actual delegate count, is actually more lopsided for her. Hillary leads amongst elected, or "pledged" delegates, amongst super-delegates, and frankly, any way you want to look at the delegates. While the "Bernie beats Trump worse" argument is completely bogus since no one is going negative against Bernie right now, Hillary still beats Donald Trump by double digits. By every single real and imaginary metric out there, Hillary Clinton is winning this race. She will continue to win this race. With 1,747 delegates left, and 1,218 of them being in the states I listed above, Bernie is not making up a 268 delegate deficit as of today.

I'm not saying Sanders should drop out, concede, or anything else, or that he won't win more states and have good days. Bernie Sanders should run as long as he wants to and can pay his staff. He should stack up delegates, make demands on the platform, and push the party towards what he wants it to be. This is his moment in the sun, and he's earned it. He's just not going to be the nominee though, and I'm kind of tired of hearing complaining about it. No, he wasn't cheated in Arizona (as some Twitter conspiracists claim). No, he's not winning. No, "Bernie or Bust" is not principled (nor would "Hillary or Bust" be), it's stupid. We hold a primary to come to a winner. Did Hillary have advantages? Yes. Political campaigns do not happen in a vacuum, so someone always will start out ahead. It didn't stop Barack Obama in 2008. When the race is nearing it's end, it's immature and counter-productive to say "I won't vote for the other candidate in November" because you are unhappy with the results. Do you really want Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as President? Do you think that Bernie Sanders wants Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as President? Do you think that Hillary is "just like" Donald Trump or Ted Cruz? I mean, I get it, you'll say she is in some way shape or form, but you can't say her policies match their's in a serious way. That's stupidity at the highest degree.

Elections have winners and losers. Sometimes there is gray area on whether or not someone "lost," but there is always a winner. Hillary is going to be that winner. Let's leave it at that.

The Day After Easter

Holidays often start early in the Wilkins family. By early, I mean Easter Sunday mass is at 8 am type of early. Of course, our church's mass was something like 45 minutes, and by 9 am I was at my grandmother's, making a plate of the food we just had blessed. The net effect of both the food and the time is still dragging on me this Monday morning.

I really would have liked/needed to sleep in either yesterday or today, but neither was an option. So of course, today I'm dragging like I worked all weekend, and I didn't. This is life, I guess, but it's a part I'd like to see changed. Getting up at 6:30 for church on a holiday just kind of breaks up the day all wrong.

Then, there is the food. It's too damn good. Meats, cheeses, pickles, eggs, you name it. There's a lot of food in the basket they blessed. The hot kielbasa is just too good to pass on, and I end up eating a breakfast/brunch that is far too large. Then of course, our older relatives all need the day over early, so we ate dinner around 1:30 yesterday. As you can imagine, that leaves you hungry the next day. Very hungry.

Holidays are fun, seeing family is a blessing. The food is good, and I'm glad I went to church. The next day is less fun. It's not something that "feels" good. In fact, I just kind of want to be back in bed right now.

The Phillies Roster and the Final Week, 3/28

Let's be clear here- we know what spots are still open on the Phillies. The fifth starter fight could be decided today, and if not it will be soon. They have two open spots, probably on their bench, with at least one needing to be an outfielder on some level. Then they have three undecided bullpen spots. Basically 19 spots are filled:

• Jeremy Hellickson, Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton, and Jerad Eickhoff are all in the rotation.
• Cameron Rupp and Carlos Ruiz will be the catchers.
• Ryan Howard, Darin Ruf, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Maikel Franco, and Andres Blanco are coming north as infielders.
• Odubel Herrera and Peter Bourjos have starting outfield spots, while Tyler Goeddel has an outfield spot of some kind. 
• Dalier Hinojosa, David Hernandez, Brett Oberholtzer, and Jeanmar Gomez seem like bullpen locks. 
• Cody Asche will start on the 15 day DL. Aaron Altherr and Matt Harrison are headed to the 60 day DL. Mario Hollands will be on the DL, it's just a matter of which one.
• Jorge Alfaro, Roman Quinn, Taylor Featherston, David Buchanan, Severino Gonzalez, Alec Asher, Jimmy Cordero, Colton Murray, and Edubray Ramos are on the 40 man roster, but in the minor league camp now. Counting Asche, the Phillies have at least 10 spots on the 40 man filled with players who will not break camp with the team, possibly 11 depending on which DL Hollands goes to.

The Phillies have two 40 man spots available for certain, possibly three if Hollands is put on the 60 day DL. Beyond that, they would have to make cuts. The battles for the spots are:

• Starting pitchers- Vince Velasquez and Adam Morgan are battling down to the final week. Both have a 40 man spot, making this a simple preference call for the front office. My sense is that they want to pick Velasquez, though Morgan has thrown really well. Count this as Velasquez, and shift Morgan as the 11th player on the MLB roster sent to minor league camp. If it goes the other way, that doesn't wildly change the overall roster composition, as they take up the same spots.
• Outfield/Bench- The Phillies have two spots to fill amongst their position players and several options to do it with. Darnell Sweeney is still in camp and has a 40 man spot, though I think the Phillies would prefer to see him play every day in AAA over the bulk of the season. Still, he's an option because he has options and versatility. Non-roster invitees Cedric Hunter, David Lough, Emmanuel Burriss, and Ryan Jackson are still in camp too. For me, Hunter and Burriss stand out, one for his potential upside in a platoon with Goeddel (Hunter), and the other for his versatility (Burriss). If the Phillies are committed to giving Hunter regular plate appearances, I prefer him, but I doubt that. I would prefer to see them keep Sweeney and Burriss as a result.
• Bullpen- There are a lot of guys in the mix yet. Elvis Araujo, Luis Garcia, and Hector Neris are all "incumbents" from last year, of sorts, but all have options and work to do. Lefty David Stumpf is a Rule 5 pick, and therefore likely a favorite to make this team. That leaves the Phillies with Michael Mariot on the 40 man roster, who is likely headed to the minors with the first three. The Phillies would have two open spots on the 40 man, and two in the bullpen if Stumpf is on. Non-roster righties Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri, and Andrew Bailey, and lefties James Russell and Bobby La Fromboise are still in camp competing for these spots. My sense is that Mujica is a favorite here. If Mujica is making the team, that leaves one or two spots, depending on Stumpf. Bailey has out-pitched Frieri overall, but it's much closer in the last week. Both lefties have thrown well, but would require a roster spot they don't currently have. I would guess that Mujica, Stumpf, and Frieri will win the initial spots, while Bailey and Russell go down until their out-clause dates or an opening occurs, and La Fromboise goes down awaiting how Stumpf does in the bigs.

Under this scenario, Velasquez, Sweeney, Burriss, Mujica, Stumpf, and Frieri come North to fill out the 25 man roster. Morgan, Araujo, Garcia, Neris, and Mariot join the nine other players in minor league camp with 40 man spots. The Phillies round out this roster with Asche on the 15 day DL, eventually coming up and replacing Sweeney.

Saturday's Bernie Wins Didn't Change the Race

Bernie Sanders had a great Saturday. In fact, he had about as good of a night as possible. His "small" victory was the Hawaii win with 69%. I'm not sure if this is a sign of Clinton's weakness or the left's idealism, but either way, there should be some genuine concern from pro-Clinton folks about a candidate who seems well on her way to the nomination getting beaten this badly, this late in the process. Even if we dismiss this as a demographic driven event, it is still one that should be very concerning if you want to see Hillary Clinton win this election. All of that aside- Bernie had a great night. He won with astronomical margins in three states on one day.

Now, the bad news for Bernie- no, the race did not change on Saturday. Hillary entered the day with a 303 elected delegate lead (we'll not add in super-delegates at this point in the conversation). As of now, she has a 268 delegate lead, 1,243-975. Bernie Sanders gained 35 delegates in the three smashing wins. Now, as they were caucuses, and in the case of Washington State specifically, some of the delegates from these wins will be apportioned later. Bernie is expected to end up gaining another 25-35 delegates in May or so from these states. In other words, he may narrow her elected delegate lead to close to 230 or so, after these states are entirely counted. There are roughly 1,747 remaining delegates, meaning Bernie needs a 990-757 or better type of split. He needs about 56.7% of the remaining delegates. That may seem possible to you right now. The reality is that it's unlikely.

Let's look forward on the calendar for a moment. Next up on the schedule is Wisconsin and it's 86 delegates, followed by Wyoming and it's 14, followed by New York and it's 247, before a massive 384 delegate day on April 26th that will include Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Can Sanders make up ground during April with that calendar?

Back in February, a Marquette poll put Bernie up by a point, but a more recent Emerson poll put Clinton up six. Let's assume that Marquette ends up being right for a moment, a rather biased assumption- Bernie may end up taking a 44-42 split of the elected delegates under that scenario, a gain of about two delegates. Wyoming on the other hand is more fertile ground for him. With 14 elected delegates, Bernie may win a split around 11-3 or 12-2 out of there, if his margin is similar places like Idaho, Washington, or Utah. Let's say he nets 12 delegates in those two states, and cuts the eventual margin to about 220 delegates. That is basically the end of the line. In New York, Hillary holds a lead of 48% in one poll, and the RCP average is 34.5%. Let's say she ends up winning by 15% in New York, a great outcome for Bernie, she would still come out around 140-107 in the pledged delegate count there, re-extending her lead to about 250 delegates, just amongst pledged delegates. A lead of about 250 delegates, now with around 1,400 pledged delegates to go is a much taller climb for Sanders- he'd have to win 825-575, or about 58.9% of the remaining delegates. The problem for him is that April 26th does not look good for him. Pennsylvania is currently giving her leads averaging out to 27.5%, meaning she may very well win the 189 elected delegates 60-40, or 113-76. Maryland is also giving Hillary Clinton a 30% type of margin in polling, meaning she may win their 95 elected delegates 60-40, or about 57-38. Those two states alone would pad her margin by 56 delegates, putting her back around 300 delegates up. Even if he won Delaware (21), Connecticut (55), and Rhode Island (24) by a 60-40 margin of 60-40, Hillary would hold a lead of about 286 delegates at that point, with 1,016 delegates remaining. Bernie would need at least a 651-365 split, or 64.1% of the remaining delegates, to tie. At least.

There are  302 delegates between April 26th and June 5th. Indiana's 83 go first, and if we want to be charitable, maybe Bernie matches Michigan and pulls out a 42-41 type of win. Maybe. Clinton probably also does no worse than a virtual draw in Puerto Rico, with it's 60 delegates. Let's say Sanders ends up with an impressive ten delegate pick up in those two, but wins the 159 delegates from Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and the Virgin Islands by the necessary 64.1% margin, 102-57. He would gain 55 delegates in the process, and be down by a 231 delegate margin with 714 to go. He would need to win the remaining delegates 473-241 to win. He would need 66.2% of the remaining delegates to win the elected delegate race.

On June 7th, California (475), New Jersey (126), Montana (21), New Mexico (34), North Dakota (18), and South Dakota (20) will cast votes for 694 delegates, before Washington, DC votes for 20 more. Can he win 66.2% of those votes? Let's put this to be fast- no. Hillary holds a 9% lead according to RCP's average in California, and 7.2% in HuffPo's average. Let's say he actually narrows California to a tie, and wins the delegate count 238-237- that alone makes it impossible for him to win the race. In New Jersey, RCP has Clinton up 31%, while HuffPo has it at 25%. At best, he narrows that to about 10%, or a 69-57 split. That puts her lead at 242 delegates, with 93 left, which is insurmountable. Giving him a 68-25 split there, she wins by 199 delegates. If she in fact wins the 4,051 by about 200 delegates, she will have about 2,125 delegates to Bernie's 1,926. Bernie can only change that if he can dramatically change the current polls in New York, New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania, and Maryland- big, diverse states that mostly have closed primaries. Given that we put every single race breaking at least towards him here, he'll be very fortunate to keep her to 2,125 in the end. If he does though, she would be 258 delegates short of the win, which brings me to....

Super-Delegates. They are a reality of life here. She has 469 of the 714 right now, while he has 29. There are currently 216 undeclared super-delegates out there as well, but frankly if she wins the final tally by 199 delegates, I don't see that as even mattering. If she wins 2,125, my current projection, she would get to 2,594 with her current "supers." That's about 211 more than she needs to win. If the super-delegates listened to "the will of the people" and matched the popular vote, she would win 375 of the 714 super-delegates though, and would still have 2,500. There's no reason to believe that will happen though, as she's more likely to end up with over 600 of the super-delegates, as the rules say they can vote their own will. In other words, look for her to finish with about 2,750 delegates or so, on the low end. The reality is, there's no reason to think the super-delegates won't continue their march towards her, or that he will do better than the elected delegate split I gave him above.

Let's say it happens though- let's say Bernie does change the race. Maybe it's a surge in Pennsylvania, or a huge win in California, or a rise in New York or New Jersey. Let's say he makes up not only the 199 deficit, but ends up winning the elected delegate count by a hand full. In my view, if that somehow happens, the Democratic Party should nominate him, as she will be in a free fall. My opinion is not binding on anyone though. It is likely that even then, he will not win the nomination. Give him a 100 delegate swing, and an elected delegate win of 2,026-2,025. Is he going to be able to get to 2,383 with super-delegates, needing 357 super-delegates? He has 29 right now, and would need 328 more. I don't see that happening. He is not popular with the party leaders. He would likely need to win all of the remaining elected delegates by about 450, both over-turning her lead and giving himself a safe-padding. That is winning by damn near 25% the rest of the way, coming from a current position of being down large margins in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and even in California.

I see no way that Bernie Sanders wins the nomination, even after his huge wins on Saturday. I expect that she crosses the 2,383 threshold on June 7th at the latest, coming into the night under my calculations about 149 total delegates short. It is highly unlikely to happen in April, but it's possible, and there are opportunities to end the race in May for her. I suspect that Senator Sanders will run until June no matter what, and that is certainly his right. He has the money to do it, and he has supporters willing to fight for him.

The main point of all of this is this: not all major events matter. Bernie Sanders scored a crushing victory over a favored front-runner for the Democratic nomination in three separate states. That is an event worth us recognizing. It also didn't change the race. There are only a few opportunities to change the race, and frankly none of them is coming up for a little while yet.

Christ is Risen

Pope Francis' homily:

“Peter ran to the tomb” (Lk 24:12).  What thoughts crossed Peter’s mind and stirred his heart as he ran to the tomb?  The Gospel tells us that the eleven, including Peter, had not believed the testimony of the women, their Easter proclamation.   Quite the contrary, “these words seemed to them an idle tale” (v. 11).  Thus there was doubt in Peter’s heart, together with many other worries: sadness at the death of the beloved Master and disillusionment for having denied him three times during his Passion.

There is, however, something which signals a change in him: after listening to the women and refusing to believe them, “Peter rose” (v. 12).  He did not remain sedentary, in thought; he did not stay at home as the others did.  He did not succumb to the sombre atmosphere of those days, nor was he overwhelmed by his doubts.  He was not consumed by remorse, fear or the continuous gossip that leads nowhere.  He was looking for Jesus, not himself.  He preferred the path of encounter and trust.  And so, he got up, just as he was, and ran towards the tomb from where he would return “amazed” (v. 12).  This marked the beginning of Peter’s resurrection, the resurrection of his heart.  Without giving in to sadness or darkness, he made room for hope: he allowed the light of God to enter into his heart, without smothering it.   

The women too, who had gone out early in the morning to perform a work of mercy, taking the perfumed ointments to the tomb, had the same experience.  They were “frightened and bowed their faces”, and yet they were deeply affected by the words of the angel: “Why do you seek the living among the dead?” (v. 5).

We, like Peter and the women, cannot discover life by being sad, bereft of hope.  Let us not stay imprisoned within ourselves, but let us break open our sealed tombs to the Lord so that he may enter and grant us life.  Let us give him the stones of our rancour and the boulders of our past, those heavy burdens of our weaknesses and falls.  Christ wants to come and take us by the hand to bring us out of our anguish.  This is the first stone to be moved aside this night: the lack of hope which imprisons us within ourselves.  May the Lord free us from this trap, from being Christians without hope, who live as if the Lord were not risen, as if our problems were the centre of our lives.

We see and will continue to see problems both within and without.  They will always be there.  But tonight it is important to shed the light of the Risen Lord upon our problems, and in a certain sense, to “evangelize” them.  Let us not allow darkness and fear to distract us and control us;  we must cry out to them: the Lord “is not here, but has risen!” (v. 6).  He is our greatest joy; he is always at our side and will never let us down.

This is the foundation of our hope, which is not mere optimism, nor a psychological attitude or desire to be courageous.  Christian hope is a gift that God gives us if we come out of ourselves and open our hearts to him.  This hope does not disappoint us because the Holy Spirit has been poured into our hearts (cf. Rom 5:5).  The Paraclete does not make everything look appealing.  He does not remove evil with a magic wand.  But he pours into us the vitality of life, which is not the absence of problems, but the certainty of being loved and always forgiven by Christ, who for us has conquered sin, death and fear.  Today is the celebration of our hope, the celebration of this truth: nothing and no one will ever be able to separate us from his love (cf. Rom 8:39).

The Lord is alive and wants to be sought among the living.  After having found him, each person is sent out by him to announce the Easter message, to awaken and resurrect hope in hearts burdened by sadness, in those who struggle to find meaning in life.  There is so necessary today.   However, we must not proclaim ourselves.  Rather, as joyful servants of hope, we must announce the Risen One by our lives and by our love; otherwise we will be only an international organization full of followers and good rules, yet incapable of offering the hope for which the world longs. 

How can we strengthen our hope?  The liturgy of this night offers some guidance.  It teaches us to remember the works of God.  The readings describe God’s faithfulness, the history of his love towards us.  The living word of God is able to involve us in this history of love, nourishing our hope and renewing our joy.  The Gospel also reminds us of this: in order to kindle hope in the hearts of the women, the angel tells them: “Remember what [Jesus] told you” (v. 6).  Let us not forget his words and his works, otherwise we will lose hope.  Let us instead remember the Lord, his goodness and his life-giving words which have touched us.  Let us remember them and make them ours, to be sentinels of the morning who know how to help others see the signs of the Risen Lord.  

Dear brothers and sisters, Christ is risen!  Let us open our hearts to hope and go forth.  May the memory of his works and his words be the bright star which directs our steps in the ways of faith towards the Easter that will have no end.

For Me, It's Always National Puppy Day

Yesterday was National Puppy Day, which is awesome, because I love dogs. They are very loyal, loving animals, and you can't go wrong with one, if you take the time to raise it right. Don't tell me a breed is bad, I'll show you an equal number of bad owners. Don't tell me you have a better friend than a dog, you don't.

For me, every day is "National Puppy Day." My three dogs, Lizzie (14), Sweetpea (9), and Nugget (3) are all the best. When I get sick of dealing with political people, or just people in general, I can always find interested friends in my dogs. So, today, I will celebrate them, a day late, because it's always a good day to celebrate your dogs.

An Album I Can't Wait to Hear

Started Mixing the new record today!@nigelgod at the helm pic.twitter.com/DlbZUCMi3n

— Chad Smith (@RHCPchad) March 21, 2016

Ok, I really can't wait.

Last month, frontman Anthony Kiedis revealed the band was “in the home stretch” of finishing the record. “We had written two dozen songs before we got with him. [Danger Mouse] is like, ‘Let’s keep a few of those, but let’s go write all new songs in the studio,'” Kiedis explained during a recent appearance on Steve Jones’ radio program. “We’re looking at each other like, ‘Dude, we kind of already wrote the songs, bro.’ He’s like, ‘No, I like to write new ones in the studio.’ So, in honor of accommodating this new process, we wrote all new songs, and it’s a good thing we did.”

The as-yet-untitled LP serves as the follow-up to 2011’s I’m With You and marks the first Red Hot Chili Peppers’ release not produced by Rick Rubin since 1989’s Mother’s Milk.

So, the first thing is that I'm excited to hear the work the Chili Peppers put out after five years away. I'm also excited to hear the difference in sound with Danger Mouse and Nigel Godrich. The part though that most catches my imagination is that this is the first album without Rick Rubin since "Mother's Milk." They made virtually all of their multi-platinum best-selling albums with Rubin over a stretch that covers a quarter-century. Rubin is one of the great producers of his time. The Red Hot Chili Peppers are rock n' roll icons. They've been away for five years. What will this album sound like? Will it be as good as we expect from them? I expect so. I think so. I can't wait to hear this now.

Post-Tuesday Presidential Primary Delegate Update

Tuesday's results are now tabulated. For the Republicans, this means Arizona and Utah are now in the math. For the Democrats, it means Arizona, Utah, and Idaho are in the math. Here's the updated Democratic numbers:

• Elected Delegates: Hillary Clinton 1,223 Bernie Sanders 920 (Clinton +303) 
• Super Delegates: Hillary Clinton 467 Bernie Sanders 26 (Clinton +441)
• Overall Delegate Count: Hillary Clinton 1,690 Bernie Sanders 946 (Clinton +744)

Clinton needs 2,383 delegates to win the race. She is 693 away, overall. There are 2,129 remaining delegates out there. She needs about 32.55% of the remaining delegates to win. While the Sanders supporters out there like to dismiss her super delegate lead, they are part of the process, and as a result she should reach 2,383 by June. Sanders must make up the 303 delegate deficit he has amongst elected delegates, plus enough more to convince elected party leaders to switch over. I don't see that happening at this stage. She has several wins ahead of her yet. If Bernie's going to make up the margin, that will have to begin this Saturday with a big win in all three of Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska. 

And for the GOP:

• Donald Trump 739 Ted Cruz 465 John Kasich 143 (Trump +274)

Nothing has changed since yesterday here. Donald Trump needs 1,237 delegates to win, and there are 944 more available. Trump is now 498 away. Trump must win 52.75% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. While that is not an easy number, no other candidate has any pathway to win on the first ballot. MSNBC is reporting that Trump will sit at 755 once all results still out are counted (seems high to me), which doesn't wildly change the math at all. The bottom line is that Trump is either going to get the nomination, or come the closest by a lot. If he falls short by a small margin, it would seem very difficult to get all the other delegates to agree on any other candidate in order to win. That may be true even if he falls 200 delegates short. I can see a possibility for Cruz to get there, but it will be hard.

Stay Classy, GOP...

Washington DC is booming. Tower cranes everywhere. Being built on the backs of US taxpayers. DC needs a recession. pic.twitter.com/BcE8kRPfUq

— Rod Blum (@RodBlum) March 21, 2016

I mean, for real? This guy actually put this out on the internet? Congressman Blum actually says Washington, DC needs a recession? I mean, I say lots of unflattering things about Washington, but I don't hope for a massive loss of jobs on any group of people.

This is what happens when a political party's rhetoric gets too crazy. Yes, they don't want big government. That's one thing. Saying a whole city should suffer as a result is another. It's a natural next step for ignorant people and crazies obviously- but it should never come out of a Congressman's mouth.

Police Raids, Torture- Maybe the GOP Can Just Call for a Concentration Camp Next

Everyone who watched the terror in Brussels yesterday was horrified. The senseless death and pain inflicted on the public by the monsters of ISIS deserves a tough response. While that may not mean another ground war in the Middle East (in fact, it shouldn't, at least if we're fighting it), all decent people should join together to destroy ISIS.

We also should not abandon our values. We have a free and open society. The minute America abandons that for the sake of safety, we're just not the same people. We become not much better, frankly, when we start targeting innocents in any group of people, for the purpose of making others feel safe. Here's the truth- America is a very safe place, but there will always be exceptions to the rule. I ride in subways in New York, in Philadelphia, in Washington, and I know the risks associated with that. I do not want us to infringe on the civil liberties and human rights of others to make me .01% safer from the frankly impossible to totally prevent events like we saw in Paris and in Brussels. There will always be crazies. They will always commit harm. We will always be disappointed to see this. I think our government does a very good job preventing as much of this as possible. I'm fine with their current efforts.

Ted Cruz apparently is not though. He's a Presidential candidate, but he called for police to patrol and secure "Muslim neighborhoods." This disgusting suggestion of engaging in strong-man, "big brother" tactics across the nation are beneath a Presidential candidate. The good Muslim-Americans in Orange County, Dearborn, Brooklyn, and other places are not criminals, and do not deserve to have their civil rights infringed on by a megalomaniac like Cruz. This suggestion is beneath our nation.

But.... Donald Trump had to one up that. He accused British Muslims of not reporting suspicious activity, agreed with Cruz, and then said we need to go back to waterboarding suspected terrorists. Basically, Donald Trump called for us to use torture. This is obviously illegal, stupid, and doesn't work. He wants to do it anyway. Because of course he does, he's Donald Trump.

Since the GOP candidates are trying to one-up each other with crazy xenophobic statements about Muslims, I guess we can expect someone to call for "internment camps" like we used during World War II for Muslims, or maybe full-blown concentration camps after that. This kind of red-meat feeding to the masses of ignorant voters these two are attracting to the primary polls is well beneath the standard of such past Republican Presidents as Lincoln, Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and even Reagan and the Bush duo. The Republican Party should be embarrassed to have these men running for their nomination.

An Updated Look at the Presidential Race

Last night was a good night for Donald Trump. It was also a good night for Ted Cruz. Hillary Clinton did just fine last night, but Bernie Sanders had a nice night too. It was not a decisive night, not like last Tuesday. It kind of left both races in flux.

Donald Trump won "winner-take-all" Arizona, and it's 58 delegates last night. He took a huge step towards winning the nomination in the process. Ted Cruz had to win Utah, and he did, but he went a step further. By winning with 69.2%, Cruz got all 40 delegates from Utah. While Trump won the delegate count for the night, Cruz can claim some momentum going into Wisconsin. The only loser on the night was John Kasich, who won zero delegates last night. His dream of a "brokered-convention" is looking more bleak today. The current delegate count:

• Donald Trump 739 Ted Cruz 465 John Kasich 143; 1,237 needed for victory (Trump needs 498).

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders certainly won the night, but not by the kind of margin he needs. Bernie won Utah by a 79.7-19.8%, at this hour (still 19% out). He also won Idaho by a 78-21.2% margin. Hillary Clinton did win Arizona by a healthy 57.8-39.8% margin (at this hour as well, 3.5% still out). At this hour, Bernie Sanders won last night by 9 delegates, with a few more to be awarded. That's a bit better than I expected, but I also expected him to finish about 20% lower than he did in both Utah and Idaho. So while Hillary did not win the night by 5, as I predicted, the overall result is not a huge change. By winning with 80% instead of 60% in two states that favored him to begin with, Bernie Sanders changed the math by a net of 14 delegates. If he wants to win, he'll have to do that a lot more, and win some of the big states out ahead pretty handily. Even so, he had a very good night, and is happier to win by 9 than lose by 5, i'm sure. The delegate count, at this hour:

• Elected Delegate Count- Hillary Clinton 1,214 Bernie Sanders 911 (Clinton +303)
• Super Delegate County- Clinton 467 Sanders 26 (Clinton +441)
• Overall Count- Hillary Clinton 1,681 Bernie Sanders 937 (Clinton +744); 2,383 needed for victory (Clinton needs 702 additional delegates).

On Saturday, the Democratic race continues in Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington. The Republican race continues in Wisconsin next month.

Baseball and Cuba

Yesterday was a historic day in Havana. The past few days have been, to be honest. For the first time since the Coolidge Administration, an American President was in Cuba. Yesterday, that trip wrapped up with a baseball game. The Tampa Bay Rays played the Cuban National Team in front of both Presidents, a huge crowd, and MLB brass. For a moment, sports doubled as diplomacy.

First, the obvious- I support a normalization of relations with Cuba, if changes are made. The embargo and silence between the two countries has not worked. Nothing changed in Cuba for anyone but the common people who saw their lives get worse. It was time for a change.

So what does yesterday's game mean? Not much in the immediate term. The hope is that five years from now, Cuban players will be able to play in America without defecting. Of course, for that to happen, Cuba has to make some serious changes. I can see a scenario where within a decade, a AAA Marlins affiliate is in Havana, or the Rays are even moved there. All of that is still really premature though. For yesterday, it was what it was- an exhibition game. It isn't as big of a step as it felt like, and yet it could lead to better things ahead. Before that can happen, Cuba will have to grapple with forgiving the defectors and allowing MLB players more freedoms than they want to currently grant. They will probably have to deal with their human rights record as well, and treat dissidents with some level of freedom. Congress will have to lift the embargo, and travel restrictions will have to be lifted. Even beyond all of that, the Cuban government would have to accept MLB's CBA as binding as well, even to have minor league ball. Many things still have to happen.

Forget all of that though, for a moment. An American President watched a baseball game in Havana yesterday. Matt Moore pitched against the Cuban National team. Evan Longoria played in a place we don't send MLB players. Yesterday was a historic day.

Boy, I Wonder Why Barletta Would Endorse Trump

Any objective person who watched would tell you Lou Barletta's time as Mayor of Hazleton was not a success. Barletta left office popular though, finally winning for Congress on his third try, and then re-districted himself into a safely Republican seat. While he remained popular in Hazleton all along, it took a Republican tsunami in 2010 to actually get him promoted. How does a failed Mayor stay popular and get a promotion though? Well, scapegoating the incoming Dominican population was a big part of Barletta's pathway. Before the "Arizona immigration law," Barletta was passing an ordinance to deal with an alleged illegal immigration problem, striking fear into the Latino community. His down-scale economic, white base was willing to overlook the lack of jobs and poor quality of life under his leadership, so long as he scapegoated Latinos.

Of course, in line with his brand of politics and right on cue yesterday, Congressman Barletta endorsed Donald Trump yesterday. Of course he would embrace building a wall on our Southern border. I'm sure that Lou is fine with banning Muslims from entering the country too. It's the only political brand that he can embrace.

My Dog Learns Better Than the GOP

Meet Nugget. Nugget is a two or three-year old pug. He's generally a good boy, but he has his moments where he's not as good. When he's not good, we yell at him. He gets upset that he was bad, and he stops being bad. Hence, I can say that Nugget is a good boy.

The GOP could learn a lot from my little Nugget. He has fun, he likes to enjoy himself, but when he's bad, he stops being bad. The Republican Party's response to their failings in the Bush Administration was to turn loose their craziest forces in the Tea Party. When they unleashed those crazies, they started rambling about "taking their country back" and the President being a Muslim. As the crazy talk about the President not being a resident went unanswered by the GOP base, they were more emboldened, and they pushed their 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney, to adopt much of their crazy rhetoric. Mitt Romney, like John McCain before him, lost.

The GOP's activist wing pushed Romney too far to the right, and made an electable candidate into a loser. Much of the same thing happened to McCain, who selected Sarah Palin as his running-mate to appease those folks. One would think that after 2008 and 2012, the GOP may have tried to sound more reasonable this cycle. They did not. Now, they have Donald Trump beating down the gates for the nomination. They have Ted Cruz chasing him. Nobody else really has a chance to win the GOP nomination. After previously forcing two previously-labeled moderates to adopt crazy conservatism to win the nomination, now the GOP's base is demanding a nominee who is as nuts as them. Clearly, they learned nothing.

When my dog does something that doesn't turn out well for him, he usually stops doing it. It doesn't mean he doesn't want to do that bad thing, it means he knows it's a bad idea. In other words, he has some intelligent thoughts. That's more than I can say for sure about the GOP.

My Favorite Posts on this Blog

A few favorites of mine over the first 500 posts:

1. Confessions of a Political Road Warrior- Kind of a look into my professional world.
2. I Want Hillary's America- Why I support Hillary Clinton to be our next President.
3. On the Chris Dodd Campaign- I talk a bit about my time with Senator Dodd in Iowa.
4. I'm a Crappy Millennial- Self-explanatory.
5. Eight Years Later- Ohio Primary Night- A look back at my time with Hillary in Ohio. 
6. Donald Trump is America's Worst- I finally let loose on the likely GOP nominee.
7. My 2008 South Carolina Experience- A look back at my time with Hillary in South Carolina.
8. Memories of Fall Classics Past- A look back at my two World Series games.
9. The GOP Gets What it Deserves With Trump- Why the GOP can't complain about Donald.
10. 200th Post- Some Thoughts on American Life- A manifesto, of sorts.
11. I Love Easton- But Here's My Updated Bucket List- Where I want to go.

Rich Wilkins at 500 Posts

Today, "No Cream, No Sugar" turns 500... posts old. If you read me regularly, you know what I write about and what I like, but maybe not much about me. I'm 32. I live in Palmer Township. I went to Easton Area High School and Moravian College. I've done a tiny bit of graduate work at Penn State too. I'm a Democratic State Committeeman from Northampton County, an elected township auditor in Palmer, and a political consultant by day. I have a partial season ticket plan to the Phillies and the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, their AAA affiliate. I went to 40 professional baseball games last year, and plan to go to more this year. Since I write about that stuff a lot though, maybe it's not a surprise to you. So today, we'll try to give you some new stuff.

Great-Grandma's old house

As I said, i'm 32- born on May 11th, 1983, around 7:30 am, at Warren Hospital in Phillipsburg, NJ. I'm Richard Thomas Wilkins III, officially, but you can call me Rich. My background is European mutt- 25% Slovak, 25% German, 12.5% Polish, 12.5% Hungarian, 12.5% British, and 12.5% Italian. Exactly zero of those have anything to do with the name Wilkins though, which was a creation at Ellis Island. Joseph Wilczynski and his brother came over to Ellis Island and were admitted to America, but his brother's last name seems to have been changed to Wilkins once there. Joseph was naturalized as Wilczynski in Belvidere, but seems to have later changed his name to Wilkins too. So no, it's not British.

The house above was the home of Julia Kravchak, my great-grandmother, also an off-the-boat immigrant from then-Czechoslovakia. Her and her husband John (who died long before I came around) came over and settled down in Brainards, a tiny village in Harmony Township, NJ. She was a poor immigrant who spoke broken English her whole life, but she worked hard, raised a family, tended to her farming, and lived alright. She is a huge part of my personal politics today, and why I identify with the Democratic Party- not so much because of her, but because the Democrats represent people like her in 2016.

But enough about background....

I hate suits and ties. I don't drink craft beer really. I like fried food. I think my hometown is the best place ever. I'm suspicious, if not downright antagonistic towards people who were born with a silver-spoon in their mouth, and intellectuals who live off in a pie-in-the-sky world. Yet, I went to a private college, can blowout any standardized test I wish to take, and love spending my time in Manhattan. I'm super-suspicious of anyone living in Washington, DC. No, I don't hunt. I have gone fishing, but i'm not all that good at it, and generally believe in throwing the fish back. Country music ain't my thing, and i'm a big fan of pop culture- but not of Beyonce. I got into politics in no small part because of the Iraq War, but i'm not 100% anti-war. I'm complex. Like any other person is. It just took me a long time to realize other people were too.

I take my coffee black, and I love an Italian hoagie from Wawa- though I also realize now that I like Quickchek and Sheetz a lot too. I drink both Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts, and though I can taste the difference, have no preference between them. I love Italian food, but I love all the Mediterranean foods. I love Chinese food too, and just about anything with seafood in it. Indian and Middle-Eastern food is also great to me. Oh, and fry me anything, I'll try it.

Yes, obviously i'm a huge Phillies fan- 26 years a season-ticket holder now. I'm also a huge IronPigs, Fightin' Phils, Threshers, BlueClaws, and CrossCutters fan, because they're Phillies teams. After the Phillies and baseball though, i'm a Sixers fan next. I love the Sixers. Sure, they last won a title when I was a month old, but that beats everyone but the Phillies. I like the Eagles, I really do, but I'm sick of the over-hyping of Philadelphia fans. I basically just hate the other 31 NFL teams a little more than the Eagles, and so I stick by my team. I hate the NFL though, other than 60 or so game days a year- I wish they'd actually take an off-season. As for the Flyers, I remain a fan, though having Sarah Palin drop the puck Opening Night made me reconsider for a bit. Like the Eagles, the Flyers just always strike me as overrated in Philadelphia.

What about college sports though? I grew up a Notre Dame football fan and a Syracuse basketball fan. I picked up Penn State along the way, and Lehigh's wrestling team. I went to a D-3 school, so I like the teams I like, but i'm not as rabid as others about it.

What else is there to know about me? I used to play the drums, I'm getting started again. I used to lift weights every day, and my lifetime high max bench was 325. I should get back into that. I wrestled from 1st to 11th grade. I ran track and cross-country in high school, and my best mile time in a race was 4:52. I won seven varsity letters at Easton High School but basically quit all sports cold-turkey in 2002, when I got mono. I'm a brother of Omicron Gamma Omega at Moravian, and I served as the Vice-President of the Class of 2006.

I take the most awkward pictures with politicians, ever. It doesn't matter if you're talking about a decade ago or two weeks ago. I just do. I guess I do better with World Series trophies, thank God.

....Aaaaaaannnnnddddd cardboard cutouts of politicians.

I'm a pretty happy guy though. I'm in good health, in fact I haven't been this light since I was in high school. I see the people I want to see, I enjoy my work. I write here. You get to see this everyday. Hopefully this gives you a better look at me. There's actually a person writing here. I try to mix in some personal posts, but frankly they come off to me as just another opinion piece. I give you enough opinions. Here's a very different look today.

And there's a dog- three of them. Three very happy animals. Shout out to all the good dogs out there. May your days be filled with happiness, may you find these posts either entertaining or enlightening- or both. Oh, and go adopt a dog. They're great.

In closing, the reasons to blog have changed a lot over the years. When I started blogging, it was to have a voice, to "stand out" in a very "top-down" political culture where we are expected to "wait in line," and I wasn't doing it. Today, I don't care about any of that. I write to hopefully inform people, and to formulate my own thoughts into an organized manner. It's my outlet, and I hope it's helpful. I'm looking for ways to spice it up and change it a bit, but i'm not looking to stop anytime soon. Thanks for reading.