Coming into tonight, the delegate math for the GOP:
- Donald Trump 680 Ted Cruz 424 John Kasich 143. 1,237 are needed for victory.
On the Democratic side:
- Elected Delegates- Hillary Clinton 1,163 Bernie Sanders 844
- Super Delegates- Hillary Clinton 467 Bernie Sanders 26
- Overall- Hillary Clinton 1,630 Bernie Sanders 870. 2,383 are needed for victory.
So, about tonight-
REPUBLICANS:
Arizona has 58 delegates that will all go to the winner. Utah has 40 delegates, and they will be split up proportionally, unless the winner hits 50%. On this night, the only drama will be whether or not Ted Cruz hits 50% in Utah. Donald Trump will win Arizona by double-digits according to the polls. Ted Cruz will win Utah handily according to the polls. In some polls, he tops 50%. In others he doesn't.
On this odd day, John Kasich is the best friend Donald Trump has. Trump could potentially be in a real battle in Arizona if this was a one-on-one race with either candidate, though it's Cruz who sits in second right now. In Utah, Cruz would almost certainly top 50% tonight if Kasich was not in the race. Donald Trump could capture 58 or more delegates tonight, thanks to the fact that Kasich remains in the race today.
My expectation is that Trump wins Arizona and Cruz wins Utah in the mid-40s. As a result, I see Donald Trump winning 69 delegates tonight. I see Ted Cruz winning 25. I see John Kasich winning 4. That would make the math Trump at 749, Cruz at 449, and Kasich at 147. It is worth noting that this is the end of the race for the month of March, and that we will reconvene this race on April 5th in Wisconsin, part of a month where the GOP will award 346 delegates, 172 of which on April 26th. The process really slows down now on the GOP side.
DEMOCRATS:
Tonight offers Bernie Sanders a chance to "right the ship." He should win Utah and Idaho. In Utah, his lead isn't a lock though. He's going to get blasted in Arizona though, according to the polls. If he's really going to turn this race around, he needs a delegate-win night. He also needs momentum that only really Arizona can give him.
Arizona has 85 delegates tonight, and if Clinton really wins by 20% or more, she might win the delegate count tonight even if she loses the other two. Utah provides 37 delegates and Idaho provides 27, and Sanders needs as many of them as he can get. It is worth noting that in 2008, Clinton lost an absolute landslide in Idaho that netted President Obama a bigger margin than California gave Hillary in the delegate count that night.
My expectation is a blowout for Clinton in Arizona, a blowout for Sanders in Idaho, and a ten point win for Sanders in Utah. Split the delegates 21-16 for Bernie in Utah, 17-10 for Bernie in Idaho, and 51-34 for Hillary in Arizona, based on the polling. Under that math, the night goes 77-72 for Clinton, and the elected delegate math is 1,240-916, once all of the delegates are split out, roughly. Overall, it will be 1,707-942. The trajectory of the race is unchanged.
The Democrats aren't done for the month though after this. On Saturday, Alaska (20), Hawaii (34), and Washington (118) are up for grabs. Bernie is probably favored in them all, but the delegates are proportional again, so expect Clinton to progress towards the magic number anyway. She could be approaching 1,800 going into April, a month where 867 delegates are on the line. In other words, she could clinch the month, possibly next month. While the odds aren't great of that, April 26th would be the day, with 462 delegates that day.
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