Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Eventually: Nominee Hillary

Eight years after America elected it's first African-American President, we are on the brink of history- nominating a woman from a major party for the first time in our history. Hillary Clinton moved a step closer to the Democratic nomination last night, sweeping all five primaries and expanding her delegate lead. She won huge in Florida and North Carolina as expected, but she surprised with an easy win in Ohio and closer wins in Illinois and Missouri.

Clinton's lead is now insurmountable. By no means does Bernie Sanders need to drop out, and she has not clinched the nomination yet, but Hillary Clinton locked up this nomination, barring a bizarre change in this race. Clinton has 1,094 elected delegates as of last night, and 1,561 if you add in the Super Delegates. With 2,383 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, Hillary needs just 822 delegates (or 1,289 if you don't count super delegates). Bernie Sanders, by contrast, has 774 elected delegates, or 800 overall. With 2,406 remaining delegates, Hillary Clinton needs to win just over a third of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. Barring something catastrophic, she will do that.

The Democratic race is not over today. It might not be for a month or two more. The result is now clear though. Unless something happens to Hillary Clinton's candidacy that dramatically changes the race, she will eventually win the nomination. She will be the Democratic candidate for President. She can do it purely on elected delegates by winning 53.7% of the remaining delegates. She can do it by combining elected and super delegates by winning just 36.7% of the remaining delegates. Either way, she will get there, and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2016.

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