NL East Predictions

Last season at this time, the question was whether or not the Washington Nationals would win 100 games and the World Series, or just the World Series. Ultimately a season broke out, and the Nats were the biggest disappointment in baseball. It was the New York Mets that walked off with not just the NL East, but the National League Pennant as well, before being splattered by the Royals in the World Series. Of course, this division was a tale of two worlds though, with the top two teams featuring a pennant, an MVP winner, and two no-hitters for another pitcher, while the bottom three teams were all fighting to not be MLB's worst for most of the season. This season doesn't figure to be much different.

Some players are gone that were fixtures in this division. Cole Hamels is gone. Jordan Zimmermann is gone. Both Chase Utley and Ruben Tejada are gone now, a sort of irony I didn't miss. New faces are all over. Ultimately though, I'm not sure the division changes much. Here's my outlook:

1. New York Mets (94-68)- The key to consistency is consistent pitching, and the Mets have that. In De Grom, Harvey, Syndergaard, and Matz, they have four absolute stud starters that are super young. In Bartolo Colon, they have a crafty old vet. When Wheeler returns, their pitching is lethal. They should be able to pitch their way to the top of the division. The knock on the Mets last year was their offense, an offense which they have focused in on since the middle of last season. While they will have their streaky moments, the Mets should get a big boost out of Cespedes and Conforto having full seasons. The key part of the Mets that will decide their season is their bullpen. If they can hold leads, they will probably win a lot of games.
2. Washington Nationals (88-74)- Whichever way this season goes, the Nationals are running out of "golden opportunities" to win the World Series. They have perhaps the best two pitchers even in this stacked division of aces, in Scherzer and Strasburg. On the other hand, behind that the rotation is a little more risky on paper than it was going into last season. The Nats feature the best player in the division right now, Bryce Harper, and hopefully for them, improved health from Rendon, Zimmerman, and Werth. I was really down on the Nats chances a week ago, but they had a good Spring. I still have real questions on whether or not these guys have the heart of a winning team.
3. Miami Marlins (75-87)- And now you've fallen over the canyon-side in this division. Jose Fernandez being healthy and pitching a whole season could dramatically change this prediction. The same could be said for Giancarlo Stanton, if he's in the outfield all season. Dee Gordon would have to be as good as last year. Marcell Ozuna would need a serious bounce back season too. Either way, at least Ichiro should get his 3,000th hit this season in Miami. With all of that said, this team does not appear to have the depth and consistency to really contend, and they disappointed majorly last year. I'm not holding out much hope.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (68-94)- Last season may have felt like rock bottom, but this season won't actually be as dramatically better as one may feel it is though. The Phillies will be a better team, mostly because they will be a younger, hungrier team. Gone are almost all of the aging veterans with large contracts and low productivity. There are still some placeholders, guys holding down spots until better prospects arrive, and that may be the case all season. Either way, the Phillies improved their starting pitching depth over the Winter and should hold up a little better than last season. Don't expect them to be any good though, they did lose 99 games last year. The expectation this season is that they will fight like hell to get out of last, and barely do so.
5. Atlanta Braves (65-97)- 2016 in Atlanta may be what 2015 was in Philadelphia. The Braves are not putting up much of a fight to win. Like the Phillies, they are in re-build mode, and stocking up on good, young arms. It's the right way to go for a team that just couldn't quite get over the hump. The only question is if they are bad enough, early enough to push them into moving any valuable pieces left. This is not a team that cares much about their wins and losses in 2016, and so I see them taking a turn in the basement.