Here's a look at what lies ahead in the next two weeks:
Democrats:
March 5th- Saturday marks the Kansas and Nebraska Democratic caucuses, and the Louisiana Primary, all of which combines for 126 delegates. One would guess that Clinton is likely to dominate in Louisiana, a primary that will have a heavier African-American population voting for it's 59 delegates. Sanders will have to contest the two caucuses on the Great Plains, and will need significant victories that at least rival his Colorado and Minnesota wins from Super Tuesday, if not exceed them.
March 6th- The Maine Caucus and it's 30 delegates will be contested on Sunday. Given the geography, one would favor Bernie Sanders here, but Massachusetts should at least give some pause to that line of thought. Again though, Bernie will need a substantial win here to turn the tide of this race.
March 8th- Michigan and Mississippi will contest their primaries next Tuesday, accounting for 147 and 41 delegates, respectively. Clinton should clean up in Mississippi, however Michigan could be competitive. One would expect her to be favored in Michigan, but Bernie absolutely needs a victory in this state in order to stem the tide of this race. A Clinton sweep on this day would push the narrative of this being over.
March 12th- The Northern Mariana Islands Caucus and it's 11 delegates will be contested on this Saturday. I don't see it changing the trajectory of the race much.
March 15th- While not as dramatic as the Republican side, thanks to the proportional delegate rules, this is the big date that Sanders really needs to change the direction of the race on. Florida (286), Illinois (182), Ohio (159), North Carolina (121), and Missouri (84) are all on the calendar for this Tuesday. Clinton is probably a fairly substantial favorite in North Carolina, and a more prohibitive favorite in Florida. I'd pick her to win in Illinois and Missouri, but Bernie will compete in these for certain. Ohio is the one Bernie is probably best positioned to win, however it is a state she was fairly strong in during the 2008 process. He will absolutely need a good day, possibly to win three states, in order to prevent inevitability from setting in.
The bottom line here is that Sanders will need a really good two weeks to prevent this race from basically ending. If Clinton pulls out 40% of the 1,187 delegates in the next two weeks, she will be sitting at 1,527 delegates, just 856 delegates from the nomination. Bernie needs more than 60% of the delegates to change the math.
Republicans:
So you're a Republican who wants to stop Donald Trump? First and foremost, he does need 918 more delegates to add to his 319 he has. That seem good to you? The problem is, of course, that the race really hasn't changed that much. Yes, Trump needs about 51.67% of the remaining delegates, but he is on pace to do it. The other contenders need a percentage of the remaining delegates that is simply unachievable. Any chance of preventing him from winning the nomination begins in the next two weeks:
March 5th- Saturday provides opportunities to Cruz and Kasich, but not much for Marco Rubio. Caucuses in Kansas (40), Kentucky (46), and Maine (23), and the Louisiana Primary (46) are all on the calendar. Trump is likely the favorite in Kentucky, and possibly in Louisiana too, though Cruz may hang in there. Cruz can take a good run at Kansas, while Kasich should go for a win in Maine. While these don't seem like huge events, at this point they all are.
March 6th- Puerto Rico and it's 23 delegates are at stake here. If Marco Rubio wants to make an electability with Hispanics case, one would think he'd play for this. I don't have a good read though on who will come through here.
March 8th- Hawaii (19) and Idaho (32) are both caucuses next Tuesday, while Michigan (59) and Mississippi (40) are primaries. One would think that Mississippi is fertile ground for Trump. Cruz could certainly compete in Idaho with Trump, while Kasich virtually has to compete with Trump for Michigan. It's hard to get much of a read on Hawaii, given how different it is than everywhere else.
March 12th- The 19 delegates of the District of Columbia's GOP convention will be at stake. One would think that with so much of official Washington there, Rubio has to win, right?
March 15th- This is the D-Day of any attempt to stop Trump. Florida and it's 99 delegates are the big prize, a winner-take-all battle that is likely to be about Trump and the home-state Rubio, though Cruz could spoil things here. Ohio and it's 66 delegates are the next biggest, winner-take-all battle on the night, and Kasich must beat Trump in his home state to stay relevant. The Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses and their 9 delegates are also winner-take-all that day, though I have no read on how this will go. Illinois (69), Missouri (52), and North Carolina (72) are all on this day, but they are proportional. One would guess that Rubio could fare decently in all three of these states, while Kasich could make Illinois and Missouri into battlegrounds, but one would pick Trump to be the winner probably across the board.
Republicans need to beat Trump everywhere they can, but especially in the winner-take-all states to have a shot at stopping him. Even if they do, he's likely to pick up enough delegates to keep a healthy lead heading towards a convention. While there is thought that they could take the nomination from the Donald on a second or third ballot, I have real doubts about the feasibility of that.
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