The Over-Hyped, Faux Story of Pennsylvania's Competitiveness

In 2000, Tom Ridge refused to believe Al Gore had won Pennsylvania. In 2004, George W. Bush ran the same campaign model that won him Ohio and Florida, but John Kerry carried Pennsylvania. In 2008, John McCain tried to resurrect himself as the floor fell in by doing so in Western Pennsylvania. Mitt Romney seemed to have the good sense in 2012 to get the point, but Republicans are saying it again- Donald Trump can win Pennsylvania. They even cite the registration changes above. This will end up like the others.

Pennsylvania is won in Philadelphia's suburbs. Yes, the Western part of the state has trended Republican in recent years, but the population there has dropped. Running a "guns and God" appeal to those voters out there does not win the state for a Republican, in fact it hurts them worse in the Philadelphia region, where people are still moving. While the map above should not make a Democrat feel "good" about things, it's worth noting that most of the registration change is just "Reagan Democrats" actually registering as Republicans, like they vote. It's not new registrants switching. Those people were already in many cases voting Republican. There's no beef in this argument.

In short, Pennsylvania will be competitive, maybe even close, as it always is. One of these days, maybe the Republicans will win it, but if that happens, they probably already won the election. It's worth noting though that elections have actually become more lopsidedly Democratic at the state level. In 2002, Governor Rendell won a large victory. In 2004, Democrats won two out of three state row offices and the Presidential race, only losing for Senate and Attorney General. In 2006, Governor Rendell and Casey won blowouts for Governor and Senator. In 2008, President Obama won a blowout and the Democrats won two out of three row offices. In 2012, President Obama and Senator Casey won fairly comfortable wins, and the Democrats swept the row offices. In 2014, Governor Wolf won easily. In 2015, in a relatively new outcome for off-years, Democrats swept all the state judicial races handily. The only exception in which Republicans did well in Pennsylvania statewides recently was 2010, which was a year they did well everywhere. In other words, the PA GOP hasn't done so well in recent years. Donald Trump is not a particularly strong candidate according to polls, and he doesn't have a really strong campaign. In other words, I don't see him flipping Pennsylvania right now. I don't see why people are giving this story legs.

Check back in November.

A Final Look at the Pennsylvania Primary

Last Tuesday, Pennsylvania's voters went to the polls and voted for candidates for President, Senator, Attorney General, Congress, and State Legislators. The results were actually not overly shocking, and I think told us once again that Pennsylvania is a mostly "status quo" kind of state. Political revolutions and movement politics have some appeal here, but they will generally lose rather clearly. Here are my takeaways from Tuesday's Primary:

1. Governor Wolf and the Democratic Establishment still rule- Hillary Clinton, Katie McGinty, and Josh Shapiro all won clear, resounding victories, as did State Representatives Dwight Evans and Steve Santarsiero in their Congressional races. All of them had the backing and support of Governor Wolf. All of them but Santarsiero had the backing of Ed Rendell. In the races he endorsed in, all had the backing of Senator Casey. This is who we are in Pennsylvania's Democratic Party.
2. Pennsylvania Republicans are more like their brethren in New York and New Jersey than the Midwest- Donald Trump's resounding victory looked little like John Kasich's Ohio victory, or some of the midwest victories of Ted Cruz, and looked a lot more like New York's primary results. Pennsylvania Republicans view the world very similarly to their friends in New York. I'm guessing New Jersey will be quite similar too.
3. Hillary Clinton remains strong in Pennsylvania- Despite all the talk of her being weaker than in the past, Hillary Clinton cleaned house in Pennsylvania. She won in Philadelphia, and it's suburban counties. She won in Pittsburgh and Allegheny County, as well as it's collar counties. She won in the Lehigh Valley, and in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre region. She won in just about every big county except for Cambria, and it's worth noting that President Obama lost their in 2012 and still won the state easy.
4. Republican State Legislators are at least marginally worried- Across the commonwealth, Republican state house members tried to get written-in on the Democratic side. Across the commonwealth, they didn't succeed. It's very hard to get a write-in done on the opposing ballot, sure, but it's impressive that Democrats facing them for the write-in, like David Mattei in Northampton County's 137th District, pulled in over 900 write-ins in easily beating his Republican opponent.
5. Primaries are not resume contests- Joe Sestak was an Admiral, Congressman, and 2010 Senate nominee. John Morganelli and Steve Zappala had almost fifty years of experience as prosecutors. Joe Peters has one of the most impressive law enforcement resumes you'd ever see. All of them lost primaries to people who don't have as impressive of credentials. In case this doesn't drive home the point enough for you, Donald Trump won a primary for President here, without ever holding office.
6. Indictments Matter- A lot of people told me they thought Congressman Chaka Fattah would survive the primary. He didn't. Dwight Evans didn't crush him, but he beat him comfortably on the way to the victory in the 2nd Congressional District. I guess people still want ethical leaders.
7. Geography Matters- John Morganelli was wildly outspent in the Democratic Primary for Attorney General. He won his home county of Northampton County with nearly 3/4 of the vote, he won neighboring Lehigh County with nearly 2/3 of the vote, he won neighboring counties Carbon, Schuylkill, and Monroe, and finished a strong second in several counties near the Lehigh Valley. In other words, geography still matters a lot. 
8. Television Matters- Josh Shapiro and Katie McGinty had the most TV ads in the Attorney General and Senate primaries for the Democrats. Both won clear victories. Sure, TV didn't help Bernie Sanders against Hillary Clinton's quarter-century of good will here, but for the most part, TV works. 
9. The most exciting races were for delegate- I hate to say this, but by about 10:30-11 o'clock, I was watching the races for delegate to the Democratic National Convention closest of all. For a re-cap of how they went, please see #7.
10. The west still votes for the west- John Fetterman and Steve Zappala both didn't win last Tuesday. In fact, both lost by over 10%. Both carried Allegheny County though by over 10%. Both did well in the counties surrounding Pittsburgh as well. In Democratic primaries, Western PA votes for Western PA. It absolutely helped McGinty that she played the margin in Allegheny. You just have to go in knowing that the west will be the west, as frankly will the east.

Thoughts on Tuesday's Presidential Primary

In case you didn't want to believe it, Pennsylvania's Democratic Primary voters once again proved their taste for stability and known quantities on Tuesday. On a night that went very well for the party's chosen candidates, Hillary Clinton crushed Bernie Sanders in Pennsylvania, 56-44%. She won in Philadelphia, she won in Pittsburgh, she won in the Philly suburbs, the Lehigh Valley, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area, and almost every other population center. She walked away with a net-gain of over 20 delegates from the Keystone state.

What happened? Well, Democratic Pennsylvanians liked Hillary eight years ago, and they like her now. That's most of the story. She does have some problem spots- i'm looking at her loss in Cambria County most specifically- but she remains popular here, and she held her ground. It is worth noting that she clearly did better amongst African-Americans in Philadelphia than eight years ago, and similarly didn't do as well with blue-collar white voters in the state, but there's no sign that lasting damage was done to her in Pennsylvania. If anything, she starts this state stronger than President Obama did eight years ago as the nominee. For the record, President Obama won the state easily, twice.

In short, the norm held in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton did what she was expected to do. Now it's on to November for the potential 45th President.

Thoughts on Tuesday's Senate Race

Katie McGinty really never had a lead in the polls for the U.S. Senate race. At one point, she was way behind Joe Sestak, and appeared to be done. Today, she's the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate. How'd it happen?

Let's start with the obvious- Tuesday night's Democratic Primary was the ultimate "establishment" night. McGinty had the endorsements of President Obama, Governor Wolf, Senator Casey, former Governor Rendell, and virtually everyone of note within the party. Joe Sestak and John Fetterman both had none of that. The DSCC and other outside groups spent a minimum of $2 million helping McGinty beat Sestak. There was even money spent on Fetterman, once it was clear that he was cutting into Sestak's totals.

It's not fair to say that was the only factor though. Katie McGinty was not a very good candidate at all when she finished last in the 2014 Governor's primary, or even when she started this U.S. Senate race. She became a very personable, likable figure as the race went on. She improved as a public speaker, her message became sharper, and she became a very disciplined candidate. Her ads over the final month were outstanding, and she clearly won the ground game in the big cities too. Katie McGinty won this race, and she deserves the credit for that.

While McGinty did win by 10%, there is more work to do. She did not carry Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), Delaware County (Sestak's home), and Northampton County (Easton), amongst the Democratic-leaning counties around the state. She must improve her standing in the Lehigh Valley, the home of Senator Toomey, so as to not allow him to run a huge margin there. She also has to run a winning number out of Allegheny, if he wants to win.

I supported McGinty in this primary and i'm glad she won. Obviously there are some hurt feelings after this race, but hopefully folks who supported Sestak and Fetterman will eventually come around to her candidacy. Only time will tell if she can hold her momentum through November.

Under Three Weeks Out From the 4/26 "Super Tuesday," Some Reality on the Presidential Race

On April 26th, voters here in Pennsylvania will go to the polls and vote in races for President, Senator, Congress, state row offices, and state legislative races. The Presidential primary is starting to get a lot of attention, and a lot of misinformation is being spread to "heighten the drama" on the race. Let me put some of that to rest.

• Hillary Clinton still holds a very large lead amongst pledged, or elected delegates, 1,280-1,030. That is a margin of 250, with 1,661 delegates remaining. Sanders will still close this gap a little bit next month when Washington finishes it's delegate allocation. Even then, he will remain substantially (like 220-225 delegates) behind. 
• Hillary leads Pennsylvania by either a solid margin, or a blowout. In the Harper Poll this week, she lead 55-33%, a blowout. There are just 12% undecided in that poll. In Quinnipiac's new poll it was closer, with Clinton leading 50-44%. That poll showed few undecideds though (6%) and that 80% had made up their minds. My guess is that it's actually between the two, with Clinton around 52%, and Sanders around 40%-ish. 
• Sanders does not have a single super-delegate from Pennsylvania at this time, that i've seen. No one is switching.

With all of that out of the way, Clinton leads the delegate count 1,749-1,061. Clinton needs 634 more delegates to win.

Vote John Morganelli for PA Attorney General

The White House Makes a Daring Endorsement in the PA Senate Primary

I don't have strong feelings about the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate Primary. I could vote for McGinty, Sestak, or Fetterman in November without reservation against Pat Toomey. Apparently, President Obama and Vice-President Biden have a strong preference:

“I am proud to endorse Katie McGinty to be Pennsylvania’s next United States Senator,” said President Barack Obama. “Katie is a true champion for working families, with a proven record of taking on big challenges and delivering for people. She spent her entire career working to promote clean energy and combat climate change, and worked closely with my administration to implement the Affordable Care Act and expand Medicaid coverage to more than 500,000 Pennsylvanians. I know Katie will take that same tenacity and drive with her to the Senate to ensure affordable, available heath care, to protect Social Security and Medicare, and to uphold and enforce Wall Street reforms.”

“Pennsylvania is near and dear to my heart, and there is no one better to represent its working men and women in the Senate than Katie McGinty,” said Vice President Joe Biden. “As the ninth out of ten children, the daughter of a restaurant hostess and a police officer, she knows what it means to work hard, struggle to make ends meet, and build a better life, one day at a time. Katie’s voice is sorely needed in the Senate to advocate for equal pay for women, a raise in the minimum wage, college affordability, and a quality education for every child. I am thrilled to endorse Katie McGinty because she’ll be there for Pennsylvania’s middle class families, day in and day out.”

It is quite a statement to have the President and Vice-President endorse McGinty. McGinty is losing pretty badly to Joe Sestak in primary polling. She needs to win the undecideds by a large margin, meaning they need to do a lot more than just a press release endorsing her. McGinty will need physical support, in the form of ads and campaign stops, from the White House.

I have no problem with the President and Vice-President weighing in on the next U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, both served in that institution and are probably following the race. What's daring isn't that they did this endorsement, but the perceived commitment that it brings to the race moving forward. Katie McGinty will have a tough road ahead to the nomination. The White House has married itself to driving her there.

Elect John Morganelli

The Republican Rise in Registration Means Nothing in Pennsylvania

The colors might be backwards, but you get the point.

I love when I get stupid political e-mails. Especially from Republican campaigns (disclaimer: I take myself off of Democratic ones). I really like when I get an email that excitedly tells me that "62,828 Democrats have changed their party registration to Republican this year!" I understand that PA GOP Chairman Gleason had a tough year last year, and that he wants to excite his base- I can't blame him for that. Don't buy too much into that though. It's sort of a bogus statistic.

1. The Democratic registration advantage was about a million as of last year. Don't get me wrong, they should be happy they are gaining on that. Still- 62,828 isn't the kind of dent into 1,000,000 that they'd like it to sound like.
2. About 25-30,000 Republicans have switched over to Democrat as well- further watering down the progress of the GOP.
3. Pennsylvania is almost like a southern state in that there are a lot of registered Democrats outside of the eastern part of the state who haven't been voting Democratic for decades now. In short, those people have been gone from the Democratic Party for a long time, now Democratic candidates won't waste their time trying to fool themselves into believing they can reach them.
4. Much of the GOP's progress is in southwestern PA, which has been voting more and more Republican from 2000 onward. Since John Kerry and Al Gore carried much of the region, and the 2006 mid-terms produced Democratic victories, Democrats have been crushed in that region. It makes sense that a region that used to be Democratic, but is increasingly not in November elections, would finally switch over it's registration with a big primary coming up.

None of this is to say that Democrats should be excited to see Republicans swell their ranks- we shouldn't. It's more so to say that it's not the big deal that the press is making it sound. Democrats handily carried the state for President, Senate, Attorney General, Auditor General, and Treasurer in 2012 while losing these same voters pretty handily. The bigger problem these voters moving right has caused is in Congressional and state legislative contests, where Democrats can't possibly win with the current geography. Democrats win a hand full of towns, and they win them very handily, and it's enough to carry the state. It's also very easy to pack all the Democratic voters into a few districts then, and never worry about them again. 

Bottom line is, congratulations to the GOP on it's gain of around 35,000 voters after accounting for those they lost. It doesn't change the math on the state much, or the fact that Pennsylvania is down to about 81% white now, and dropping fast. They cannot win with the current coalition they have.

I've Been Off Wasting My Time on Petitions

I've been writing a lot less lately. That's because I've been very busy. I had a collection of clients this year that I needed to get on the ballot for the 2016 primary. All of them filed enough signatures and should be appearing on the April 26th ballot. It's a long, tiring process, and frankly it's mostly a waste of time. We make candidates gather up signatures from "qualified" voters (those in their party), get the petitions notarized, and turn them in three weeks later. What does that prove? To the proponents, they say it shows minimal support. I don't agree.

Frankly, this is an exercise in asking your volunteers to do something that won't end up helping you much. If you are in Philadelphia or some other areas though, there are no volunteers, and you pay people off of Craigslist, the street corner, or God knows where else, and hope they do the job for you. I'm not sure either of these prove you have real support. They certainly don't have much meaning for the election. Still, we do this every year, because we have to.

I don't really see the point of this, I have to admit. I do it, because candidates need it, and it pays some bucks. I even volunteer for a few (they get a lot less). Petitions are pointless though. Pennsylvania should eliminate the process and have a flat fee to be on the ballot. You'd eliminate real lunatics with the fee, and you'd skip this huge waste of time.

My Current Democratic Primary Endorsements

On April 26th, Pennsylvania will vote in the 2016 Primary. I will be amongst the many voters casting ballots for President, delegates to the convention, U.S. Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor General of the commonwealth, and state legislative seats. Right now, here are some of the candidates I support:

President
I support Hillary Clinton. I've talked about why at length. You have to vote separately for delegates, so for now I'll reserve comment on that.

U.S. Senate
I'm leaning towards supporting Katie McGinty at the moment, but I do like things about Joe Sestak and John Fetterman. McGinty is the governor's endorsed candidate, worked in the Clinton Administration in Washington and Governor Rendell and Wolf's here, and has a solid team.

Attorney General
I'm backing Northampton County's District Attorney, John Morganelli. He's tough but fair, has the most experience of the field, and has represented our area well. None of his opponents match his qualifications, and none of them have his ability to appeal to centrist Democrats and Republicans that can be key as voters drop off down the ballot.

Treasurer
My understanding is that this race is now just between Joe Torsella and Albert Baker Knoll. I like both a lot, so far. I'm going to let this one play out a little longer before leaning in either direction.

Auditor General
Eugene DePasquale is the incumbent, he's doing a great job, and he should be re-elected.

PA-17
I will be voting for Congressman Matt Cartwright against Wilkes-Barre conservative Brian Kelly.

How I Plan to Vote at State Committee, as of 1/6

In 17 days, the Pennsylvania Democratic State Committee will meet in Hershey to vote on our 2016 endorsements for statewide office. This year's primary will include races for President, Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor General. I have no advance knowledge on whether we will vote on all of them, some of them, or none of them. With that said, here's my current plan:

• President- I will be supporting Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Primary, and at state committee if we vote on the matter. I like Bernie Sanders a lot, but I do not believe he would be as good of a general election candidate, and I believe she would do a great job in office.
• Senate- This is the one race in which I am currently undecided. Katie McGinty seems to be the establishment pick for the job, and she seems fine to me, but i'm not convinced yet. Her not-so-hot performance in the 2014 gubernatorial race is still fresh on my mind. Joe Sestak is the perfect candidate, on paper, but I was around for his 2010 run, and it left me with doubts that need answering. As for John Fetterman, he intrigues me right now. I just have my doubts about his viability in a statewide race, and about his current experience as a small town mayor. I like them all infinitely more than Pat Toomey though.
• Attorney General- I will be supporting local and extremely qualified District Attorney John Morganelli for this job. This is not to say that I dislike any of the other three candidates, all of whom have wonderful plans and aspirations for the job. I just feel that at this time, we need an experienced, qualified, frankly non-Kathleen Kane type of candidate to fill the job moving forward. This is a law enforcement job, and sometimes that puts the position up against our values and hopes, but I trust the position most in the hands of a veteran prosecutor for the next four years.
• Treasurer- I remain open on this race, but at the moment I plan on supporting Joe Torsella. With the new endorsement of former Governor Ed Rendell, and with his impressive fundraising totals so far, I feel comfortable giving Torsella my backing. I'm not closing the book yet on his opponents, both of whom seem qualified and capable, but I'd have to hear how they plan to win.
• Auditor General- I'll be backing incumbent Eugene DePasquale. He's done a good job.