Math is Math: Hillary is Probably Going to be the Democratic Nominee

When I went to bed last night, Hillary Clinton lead the Democratic delegate count 1,052 to Bernie Sanders' 427. That is a difference of 625. She leads overwhelmingly amongst the hated and controversial "super-delegates," but she also holds a fairly substantial lead amongst elected delegates as well. She must win 1,331 more delegates to clinch the nomination, be that through elected or committed super-delegates. She has roughly 35 states, including the large ones of California, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio in front of her. The odds are that Hillary Clinton is on her way to the nomination, and that may become abundantly clear within the next two weeks if Sanders doesn't score some major wins.

None of this is to say that Bernie Sanders should drop out of this race- I don't really think he should. He has a good message, and frankly could become a useful foil against Donald Trump in the early months of this race. He's run a great campaign, he should be proud of the way he put issues on the board, and I don't think he's hurting her, the party, or the broader left at all. Bernie Sanders is raising huge, historic sums of money right now, and as long as he can pay to run a campaign, he should continue to run. While I suspect the "Super Tuesday II" Primaries of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri will put him out of reach of the nomination, even if he wins (thanks to the proportional Democratic system), you don't really have to end a Presidential campaign until you run out of money. If he has other reasons to continue running, I support him doing so.

This is to say that the most negative critiques coming from her left should probably begin to die down. Calling her a corporate shill, a war-monger, or any other negative term that doesn't really apply next to the GOP field, is not overly helpful. Prefer Bernie? That's fine, support him. Phone bank for him, vote for him, do whatever you want to help him win your state. There's just no reason to run a scorched-Earth race. Frankly, I could vote for either one this Fall, and I think anyone being intellectually honest and mature realizes that they are far closer together than the pack of wild-men running on the other side are to either of them. It's fine to point out differences and make distinctions. The name-calling and threats to not vote for the nominee are silly at this point.

It's important for Democrats to not lose sight of the fight ahead. Donald Trump, and for that matter Rubio and Cruz too, are completely antithetical to anything we believe in as Democrats, whether we're liberal or moderate in nature. The videos of Trump rallies, and the violence, white nationalism, and anger that is evident in them, should serve as a rallying cry to any and all decent people on how important this November's election is. I would think the prevention of this madness would be a good unifier for most sober-minded individuals.

Reality says that if Hillary comes away with just about 40% of the delegates in every state ahead, she's going to get pretty darn close to the 2,383 delegates needed to be nominated. Much like eight years ago, in reverse, delegate math is pretty inescapable after Super Tuesday. I guess if you want to deny that, it's your right, but please, for the love of God, don't be that jerk who is still name-calling and acting like Hillary or Bernie is a cancer on our party. Neither is. At this point, anyone supporting either should get that.