Expectations and Needs for 3/15

Tonight is a big night in the race for President. For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders has created some level of doubt in Hillary Clinton's lead after winning Michigan, but has to follow that up tonight to stay viable. For the Republicans, John Kasich and Marco Rubio battle for their lives against Donald Trump. Tomorrow, we could wake up in a world where a Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump race is all but inevitable. We also could wake up in a world where both races are convention bound.

On the Democratic side, it is widely expected that we will see Hillary Clinton roll to big victories in Florida and North Carolina. Any failure to do so would be stunning. Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri are all expected to be close. Bernie Sanders must win at least one, probably two or even three to consider tonight a success. If Clinton rolls to a big number tonight, the race is over. If Sanders wins two or three states, the status quo is maintained.

On the Republican side, Kasich and Rubio simply have to win their home states, or the race is over for them. Kasich must win Ohio and Rubio must win Florida. For Donald Trump, he is expected to win the remainder of tonight's states. If he does that, plus wins either of the "big two," he had a good night. If he gets them all, the race has ended. Ted Cruz will have had a good night if he can pull out a state tonight. If not, he remains in, but he is weakened.

My expectation tonight is that we will see the end of Marco Rubio. He will lose Florida, and either drop out or become a punch-line in jokes tomorrow. I expect Kasich to win Ohio and survive. I expect Bernie Sanders to win at least two states and survive, but I expect Hillary's elected delegate lead to grow.