2016 MLB Predictions

It's time for the 2016 MLB Season. My predictions for the 2016 Playoffs are:

• NL One-Game Wild Card Playoff (Nats and Cards Tie)- Nationals over Cardinals.
• AL Wild Card Game- Rangers over Indians
• NL Wild Card Game- Nationals over Pirates
• ALDS- Rangers over Astros in 5, Royals over Blue Jays in 5
• NLDS- Nationals over Cubs in 5, Giants over Mets in 4
• ALCS- Rangers over Royals in 6
• NLCS- Nationals over Giants in 6
• WORLD SERIES- Rangers over Nationals in 6

I have Mike Trout and Bryce Harper winning the MVP's, while Clayton Kershaw and David Price will win the Cy Youngs.

2016 AL West Predictions

Texas has their two aces together, Houston looks to build on their success, and the Angels have the best player on the planet today (with all due respect to Bryce Harper). As if being on the Pacific Coast wasn't cool enough, the AL West should be a fun division to watch, though Houston is quite far from the Pacific Coast. Here's my predictions:

1. Houston Astros (95-67)- I think it's time to start expecting a long-term winner in Houston. A deep system has produced a young team that looks like it can win for a long time. There are question marks, and it's no lock that they finish where I'm putting them, but I see the best regular season team in the American League this year.
2. Texas Rangers (91-71)- While I'm not predicting a repeat as division champs, I see the Rangers getting to the post-season again on the backs of Hamels and Darvish. If they can stay healthy like they did last year, and start seeing some of their top prospects contribute this season, there's no reason to not expect a special season. 
3. Los Angels Angels of Anaheim (81-81)- The Angels have the best player in baseball, but they don't have the pitching, the prospects ready to step in, or even the complete line-up to cash in on that. Two years ago, they should have won it, but they didn't. They better hope they get one more great season from Pujols at some point so they can get one more shot at the ring.
4. Seattle Mariners (77-85)- I go back and fort on whether or not I want to pick these guys to break out or crash. I don't think I see enough offense to contend, even with the great King Felix on this team.
5. Oakland Athletics (67-95)- It's going to be a tough year on one side of the Bay at least. The A's will run out a pitching staff that has some ability, but not a roster that really can compete in this division. They won't score a lot, and that will be a huge problem.

NL West Predictions

Last year the Dodgers won the NL West, again, and went nowhere in the playoffs, again. Then the off-season came, and they are a different team now moving forward. Greinke is gone to Arizona, and the D-Backs are an upgraded group. San Francisco is re-loaded, and will look to keep their "even years" streak going. Here's my picks:

1. San Francisco Giants (93-69)- After going out and re-fortifying the rotation, I see a big year on the Bay. The Giants have a stacked pitching staff that will shut teams down, and star players like Buster Posey and Hunter Pence to provide the offense. Off-season pick-ups like Denard Span won't hurt either. 
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75)- The Greinke signing speeds up the timeline for this team being good. Jean Segura, Tyler Clippard, and Shelby Miller won't hurt either. Expect the Diamondbacks to break out and seriously contend for most of the season.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78)- It was a tough off-season for the Dodgers. They lost one of their ace arms and didn't add any of the stars that we're used to them picking up. They could still be better than what I'm predicting, and end up as a playoff team. I could also see them having a down year in 2016.
4. Colorado Rockies (70-92)- Unfortunately for the Rockies, they will probably end up furthering the rebuild that began with trading away Troy Tulowitzki. With that said, it could be a long year in Denver.
5. San Diego Padres (65-97)- Last year at this time, the Padres were a trendy pick to contend. This year, no one is making that mistake twice.

AL Central Predictions

For two consecutive seasons, the Kansas City Royals have been in the World Series. In 2015, they ran away with the division, and ended up winning the World Series. While they return as a favorite, this division has other teams who have had recent success. The Twins just missed the playoffs last year, and have a wealth of young talent. The Indians disappointed a bit last season, but have plenty of talent. The Tigers have had success in recent years, and made some big moves in the off-season. Even the White Sox are a team with some serious star-power. Here's my prediction on the division:

1. Kansas City Royals (92-70)- The Defending World Champions and two-time defending AL Champions ran away with the AL Central in 2015. No one seems to be predicting a repeat of that. I still just don't see another team in the division that ultimately hangs with them. The Royals remind me a lot of the Phillies from 2007-2011, in that the national media just never quite buys into how good they really are. Even in what is a very difficult division, I believe Kansas City gets it done again.
2. Cleveland Indians (89-73)- This team will pitch the lights out, but will they win? If Michael Brantley is back early, and plays well after off-season shoulder surgery, this team can hang in the race. Terry Francona's bunch is the pick of Las Vegas right now to win this division, but I think they fall a bit short. While they may have the best starting staff in the division, I have questions about the line-up and bullpen matching up with Kansas City. I think they will be very good though, so I put them in a close second.
3. Minnesota Twins (82-80)- Last year, the Twins were alive right to the very end. They played much better than anyone expected. Their top minor league talents have begun to arrive, and the future is really bright. I just don't see them doing quite as well as last year in 2016. A slight regression because of league adjustments will slow the Twins march towards a bright future in the AL Central.
4. Chicago White Sox (78-84)- While I'd love to see Jimmy Rollins play some post-season ball this year, I just am not buying into this team bouncing back yet. Yes, Chris Sale and Jose Abreu can play on any team, but they were good last year, and the team wasn't. They are a tough team to predict.
5. Detroit Tigers (72-90)- The Tigers were busy in the off-season, but they needed to be. While some will predict a better season for the Tigers, I'm not buying in yet.

NL Central Predictions

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

Last year, three NL Central teams made the post-season. The two teams who had the best records in baseball though were not knocked out by the third place team, who subsequently failed to do anything right in the NLCS. Hence, the most loaded division in baseball is packed full of great teams who start the season with a chip on their shoulder. The Chicago Cubs enter as Vegas' pick to finally win the World Series, but they haven't won since 1908 for a reason, so we'll see. Pittsburgh has one of the most exciting players in baseball patrolling center field for them, but they are facing a pivotal season after three straight early exits in October. St. Louis had the best record in baseball last season, and while they took some off-season hits, the Cardinals always find a way to be good. Let's have a look at my predictions:

1. Chicago Cubs (102-60)- This team is just loaded going into this season. Their pitching may not quite match up with the Mets or even the Nats, but they are a solid staff that will always keep their team in it, anchored by an ace who was absolutely dominant last season. Their line-up is filled with young stud prospects who came up and immediately turned out pretty nicely. They made a couple of key off-season additions to the line-up, and probably enter the season as the most complete roster in baseball.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (94-68)- My expectation is that the Pirates will see their regular season success drop off just a bit from 2015. They still have a really good, young nucleus, however they did trade away Neil Walker and have a few other holes in their line-up. I still feel like they need one more front-end starting pitcher to compete for the World Series, but I do like the pick-up of Jon Niese in the Walker deal. They basically need to stay healthier at the end of this season and figure out a way to hit Jake Arrieta. If those things happen, they may raise the Jolly Roger more in October.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)- Even an organization as strong as the Cardinals are going to miss the Heywards and Lackeys of the world that were so key to their 2015 success. With that said, "the Cardinal Way" never seems to fail to produce competitive baseball, and 2016 won't be any different. While I think they fall well off of their division perch, I expect the Cardinals to stay in the playoff hunt all the way through the 2016 season.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (64-98)- The unfortunate byproduct of being mediocre to bad in a tough division is that you lose a lot more than teams in other divisions do who are just as bad. In the case of the re-building Brewers, this is not a big deal- their outlook is longer term. Even so, it's hard to put a young group out there that isn't supposed to compete yet, and do it against a division with those top three teams waiting. At least Milwaukee still has good bratwursts and beer.
5. Cincinnati Reds (62-100)- The Reds could be in for a tough season. They were nearly the worst team in baseball in 2016, and played like it at the end of the season. Their rebuild is not drawing the positive reviews that Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or Atlanta are. They have some huge, not so good contracts still on the books. They lack dominant arms or really many other good players. With a division with three great teams in it, it will be a tough summer in southern Ohio. The good news- you get to open up against the Phillies.

AL East Predictions

Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays broke a post-season draught that went back over two decades, and they won the AL East. The New York Yankees just chugged along to the AL's First Wild Card, and while their post-season was short, the season was better than expected. The 2014 AL East Champion Orioles fell backwards a bit, and the 2013 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox hit rock bottom. The fifth team in this division, the Tampa Bay Rays, has already made history in 2016 by playing a baseball game against the Cuban National Team in Havana. Needless to say, this is a fun, if impossible to predict division. Here's my predictions for 2016:

1. Toronto Blue Jays (93-69)- The best offensive team in the division showed itself to be a winner finally last year, simply bashing their way to the AL East crown. Certainly losing David Price in division could hurt them, but the Blue Jays have some young arms that are promising, and they should be able to throw competitive games and let their line-up get them wins.
2. Boston Red Sox (88-74)- I'm either going to regret not picking them to win, or that I put them up this far. Boston got busy this off-season, adding Price and Craig Kimbrel to highlight their off-season, but the questions are still there. Is benching Pablo Sandoval smart? Will major prospects like Swihart and Betts break out? Will pitchers two through five be good enough? Boston could be a last place flop, again, as their roster is not as stacked with sure things as some of the press treats them like. They also could run out a dominant team and win this division.
3. New York Yankees (85-77)- My biggest concern is not the talent of the team, but the health. I like the moves to pick up Chapman and Castro. I love the bullpen, if it actually ever gets together- already facing suspensions and injuries. I wonder how many games they get from Tanaka, from Ellsbury, from Rodriguez, and others. Can Dustin Ackley be a serious help? This team could surprise if they get six innings of adequate pitching, good left-side defense, and the bullpen they thought they built on paper this off-season. Lot of ifs.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (81-81)- Are the Rays going to pitch really well? Yes. They are going to shut you down. Are the Rays going to hit better? Yes, the Rays are going to hit better. Will they score enough runs? No, I don't see it being enough to get them to the post-season. If their top four starters pitch up to their abilities and the team hits a little better, it's not crazy to say they come in with a better record, second place, and even the Wild Card. Lot of ifs here too.
5. Baltimore Orioles (74-88)- This is not unlike the Blue Jays, an offensive team. This team could end up surprising us all and winning the AL East. The problem is, I don't see them pitching anywhere near good enough. Yes, they've made some pick-ups. Yes, they could be healthier in 2016. If Manny Machado really does play 140 games, they could win this division. I guess i'm just not believing right now.

NL East Predictions

Last season at this time, the question was whether or not the Washington Nationals would win 100 games and the World Series, or just the World Series. Ultimately a season broke out, and the Nats were the biggest disappointment in baseball. It was the New York Mets that walked off with not just the NL East, but the National League Pennant as well, before being splattered by the Royals in the World Series. Of course, this division was a tale of two worlds though, with the top two teams featuring a pennant, an MVP winner, and two no-hitters for another pitcher, while the bottom three teams were all fighting to not be MLB's worst for most of the season. This season doesn't figure to be much different.

Some players are gone that were fixtures in this division. Cole Hamels is gone. Jordan Zimmermann is gone. Both Chase Utley and Ruben Tejada are gone now, a sort of irony I didn't miss. New faces are all over. Ultimately though, I'm not sure the division changes much. Here's my outlook:

1. New York Mets (94-68)- The key to consistency is consistent pitching, and the Mets have that. In De Grom, Harvey, Syndergaard, and Matz, they have four absolute stud starters that are super young. In Bartolo Colon, they have a crafty old vet. When Wheeler returns, their pitching is lethal. They should be able to pitch their way to the top of the division. The knock on the Mets last year was their offense, an offense which they have focused in on since the middle of last season. While they will have their streaky moments, the Mets should get a big boost out of Cespedes and Conforto having full seasons. The key part of the Mets that will decide their season is their bullpen. If they can hold leads, they will probably win a lot of games.
2. Washington Nationals (88-74)- Whichever way this season goes, the Nationals are running out of "golden opportunities" to win the World Series. They have perhaps the best two pitchers even in this stacked division of aces, in Scherzer and Strasburg. On the other hand, behind that the rotation is a little more risky on paper than it was going into last season. The Nats feature the best player in the division right now, Bryce Harper, and hopefully for them, improved health from Rendon, Zimmerman, and Werth. I was really down on the Nats chances a week ago, but they had a good Spring. I still have real questions on whether or not these guys have the heart of a winning team.
3. Miami Marlins (75-87)- And now you've fallen over the canyon-side in this division. Jose Fernandez being healthy and pitching a whole season could dramatically change this prediction. The same could be said for Giancarlo Stanton, if he's in the outfield all season. Dee Gordon would have to be as good as last year. Marcell Ozuna would need a serious bounce back season too. Either way, at least Ichiro should get his 3,000th hit this season in Miami. With all of that said, this team does not appear to have the depth and consistency to really contend, and they disappointed majorly last year. I'm not holding out much hope.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (68-94)- Last season may have felt like rock bottom, but this season won't actually be as dramatically better as one may feel it is though. The Phillies will be a better team, mostly because they will be a younger, hungrier team. Gone are almost all of the aging veterans with large contracts and low productivity. There are still some placeholders, guys holding down spots until better prospects arrive, and that may be the case all season. Either way, the Phillies improved their starting pitching depth over the Winter and should hold up a little better than last season. Don't expect them to be any good though, they did lose 99 games last year. The expectation this season is that they will fight like hell to get out of last, and barely do so.
5. Atlanta Braves (65-97)- 2016 in Atlanta may be what 2015 was in Philadelphia. The Braves are not putting up much of a fight to win. Like the Phillies, they are in re-build mode, and stocking up on good, young arms. It's the right way to go for a team that just couldn't quite get over the hump. The only question is if they are bad enough, early enough to push them into moving any valuable pieces left. This is not a team that cares much about their wins and losses in 2016, and so I see them taking a turn in the basement.