No, There is Not Going to be a Brokered Convention for an Establishment Republican

Donald Trump won all but one of the primary contests on Tuesday for the Republican Party and knocked out their "golden boy" Marco Rubio. At the end of the night, he made it mathematically impossible for John Kasich to win the nomination, and virtually impossible for Ted Cruz to do so either. Yes, he could fall as much as 200 delegates short of the necessary number to win the nomination, that is true (as I wrote).  Even under that "best case scenario" for the GOP establishment, they cannot beat Donald Trump on the first ballot after Tuesday, and he had a very good night.

Still, all the media, professional Republicans in DC, and even some Republican friends of mine on social media want to talk about is a "brokered convention." Let me just dump some cold water on that right now- it's not happening, at least not how you think. There is no pathway to nominate Mitt Romney. There is no pathway to nominate Paul Ryan. No, you're not going to resurrect the hopes of John Kasich just because he won his home state's primary. The Republican Party is going to nominate Donald Trump. If they are really hellbent on fighting on the convention floor to stop him, they might be able to get to Ted Cruz. There is no other pathway for any other person. They are the only Republican options.

First off, Donald Trump is going to finish no worse than 200 delegates from the nomination. He will have the shortest path to the nomination at the end of the process. Republican Party leadership is not going to want to have two months of limbo at the end of the primary process, and they will want to get to a winner as soon as possible, especially since Hillary will be the Democratic nominee by then. Even with all of Trump's issues, he's probably stronger than someone who emerges two months later, two months behind the Democratic nominee. There will be party leaders who will simply want the process over, and will turn to the first place finisher.

If it does get to the convention floor though, he will needed 200 or less delegates. Trump's pathway there will be simply a deal or two away. Pull over the Cruz delegates, pull over the uncommitteds, or offer some other candidate the Vice-Presidency for their delegates, and he is over the top. The fact is, even in a brokered convention, Trump is favored.

Let's say there is a brokered convention though, and let's say that all of the anti-Trump forces get together and deny him the nomination. Who else could win? Well, the obvious choice is Ted Cruz. He is in second place, he has the second shortest pathway to the nomination. He also probably has the most similarities with Trump, so if you were to somehow peel Trump delegates away, you would probably see them go there. Rubio delegates could back Cruz, and so could uncommitteds. He's even starting to gather establishment endorsements. It would be really hard for Ted Cruz to win, but he is literally the only person that could do so besides Trump.

Why do I say that? Math. Let's start with a basic premise here- Trump and Cruz will have the most delegates, and if you add them up, they will constitute a majority of the convention floor. Would any Trump or Cruz delegates defect to a Mitt Romney candidacy? I doubt many would. Would they accept Paul Ryan as a "consensus" pick. It's not likely many would. Of course, there is John Kasich, who may do reasonably well going forward, but is extremely likely to finish third in the delegate count, even if he does. Kasich is sort of a less exciting Marco Rubio- the establishment loves him, he's a creature of DC, and he's "more pragmatic" than Trump and Cruz. Why would the Trump and Cruz delegates move over to him. It doesn't really make any logical sense. If the Cruz delegates think Trump can lose, wouldn't they want to win? If they can't win, why would they back an establishment candidate? It doesn't make any logical sense. If Trump and Cruz's delegates make up the majority of the floor, and they are both fairly anti-establishment candidates, it's unlikely the supporters of either are going to break away for an establishment "consensus" pick.

There is really only three possible outcomes here:

1. Trump wins enough delegates, the race is over.
2. Trump gets the most delegates, but not enough to win the nomination, and he makes a deal with some group of delegates to get over the top.
3. Ted Cruz comes in second, makes deals, and wins the nomination.

So, what is Kasich's play here? Well, the more delegates he has, the more leverage he has. My sense is that if he has a fairly sizable number of delegates, he may negotiate them for the VP slot. That makes more sense between him and Cruz, but he may even do it with Trump. A Cruz-Kasich alliance could emerge in the days after the primaries, and that alliance could rival or surpass Trump in delegates. They could go to the convention together, simply looking to pick off Rubio and Uncommitted delegates, as well as party leaders with votes. They could possibly edge Donald Trump out in a vote count and be the ticket. It is mathematically possible. It's also the third, and least likely outcome.

Here's the simple facts- if the GOP does not give a clear first-place finishing Trump the nomination, he is likely to turn their convention into chaos. He's also likely to either launch a third-party bid, or actively play a negative role in the race. Obviously if he implodes and finishes 300 or 400 delegates short of the nomination, it's easier to dismiss him as a sore-loser. If he wins though, and is really 200 delegates or less from the nomination, the GOP would be seen as denying him his victory. They are not going to really want to do that. They certainly aren't going to do that for the third place finisher or someone who didn't run. I know that's not what a lot of people want to hear- a brokered convention is much more fun, and Trump is repulsive- but that's reality.