Pittsburgh, Congress, Sanders, and the Obama Coalition

Above, you can see the results of the 2012 Presidential Election in Allegheny County, the home of Pittsburgh. President Obama carried the county rather handily. In fact, it's long been considered a stronghold of the Democratic Party. The city of Pittsburgh's government is universally Democratic. The county government is dark-blue Democratic. The county has two Republican Congressman and one Democrat. If you look at the geography of Allegheny County, you can see why.

Not unlike other urban centers, the Democratic Party gets most of it's votes in the city of Pittsburgh, and loses outside of it. Even within Allegheny County, let alone in the counties surrounding it, southwest Pennsylvania turns very Republican just minutes from center city. In the end, this is simple geography. The "Obama Coalition" that carries the party to victory in Presidential elections becomes less and less present as you move further and further from downtown. The diversity that the Democratic Party correctly speaks to just doesn't exist there.

Winning Presidential elections is nice, but it's basically meaningless if you don't control enough seats in Congress to pass legislation. While President Obama has re-written the manual on how to win a Presidential race, the Democratic Party of today has a record low number of Congressional and state legislative seats. Even as Hillary Clinton conquers the code of winning over the Obama coalition to win the Presidential nomination, the question is rather simple- can she expand that coalition, and change the legislative math in this country.

All of this leads me to her chief rival for this year's Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders, and his coalition. On the activist side, he seems to have inherited the white-liberal portion of the Obama 2008 supporters. His best successes in this primary season seem to come amidst white-working class voters. There are those who say that Hillary Clinton does not need to reach out to these voters to win the election- I don't think they are wrong. I think Hillary Clinton can be elected by motivating the overwhelming portion of the "Obama Coalition," plus the predictable Democratic voters who show up every four years. If she wants to govern though, that will be enough. Unfortunately, 190 seats in the House of Representatives means you don't pass very many pieces of legislation. She will need to expand the Democratic share of the electorate, and has a unique opportunity to do so facing an offensive, inexperienced candidate like Donald Trump. Speaking to the economic pains and needs of the "Sanders coalition" of voters can make her a stronger nominee, one who's political reach is even greater than President Obama. At one point in her career, she was seen as this type of candidate. If she can be this again, Hillary Clinton may be more than President- she may be the most consequential President of her time. The Democratic Party might also regain it's mojo again, and start winning.