A Republican Super Tuesday II Primer

Tomorrow, the four Republican candidates still running for President will face the voters again, this time in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois, Missouri, and the Northern Mariana Islands Caucus. "Big Donald" will try to end at least two of his rivals runs for the Presidency. Florida, Ohio, and the Northern Mariana Islands are winner-take-all. The Illinois' primary is a "winner-take-most" system.

For John Kasich, he must win his home-state of Ohio tomorrow. Polls show this as a close contest between him and Donald Trump, with him starting to lead more and more. It's doubtful that anyone else will matter in this state, and really any vote for Rubio or Cruz is a vote for Trump. I expect Kasich to take all 66 delegates with the win here.

Marco Rubio is in a similar situation in Florida, but it appears that "Little Marco" is in much dire straights. Donald Trump leads by over 20% in some polls, and may roll to a victory that humiliates Marco, and ends his campaign. I see no pathway forward for Rubio if he can't win Florida, seeing how badly he's done so far. Expect Donald Trump to claim the 99 delegates here.

The Northern Mariana Islands contest is a strange one, one of several territories and protectorates that we allow to vote in the primary, but not the general election. The governor there has endorsed Donald Trump, and that makes it very, very likely that he gets all nine delegates tomorrow.

Illinois is a difficult state to predict at this point. There is less polling, though what they have shows Donald Trump with a somewhat narrow lead over Ted Cruz. While Cruz has no "must win" tomorrow, he really could use Illinois. My guess is that Trump's violent rally cancelation in Chicago will help him, and he will claim the lion's share of the 69 delegates.

North Carolina looks like a Trump state. If anyone is going to surprise, it would have to be Cruz or Rubio, neither of whom seems close in the polling. North Carolina is not winner-take-all, but it has 72 delegates up for grabs. Trump has dominated across the south, so a loss here would be a real surprise.

There has been very little polling done in Missouri so far, but the one that is out there puts Trump a few points ahead of Cruz. Much like in Illinois, this is a good opportunity for Cruz to show he still has a shot. Win these two states, hope Trump loses Ohio, and live to fight another day. Lose everything, and sure he's still in the race, but he doesn't look like a winner. I expect Trump to win this proportional 52 delegate state.

Currently, Donald Trump leads with 460 delegates. I expect him to win around 200 more tomorrow, right now. Ted Cruz has 370 right now, but I suspect he will only pick up maybe 60 delegates tomorrow. Marco Rubio and his 163 delegates are dangerously close to being out of the race, and may go up only negligibly tomorrow night. I do expect John Kasich to pick up about 75 delegates tomorrow, almost all of them coming from Ohio, which is a decent addition to his 63 he has right now. After tomorrow, I suspect Trump will have about 670 delegates, Cruz about 430, Rubio about 165, and Kasich 138. Trump will possess slightly less than half of the current delegate count, but will have basically the only pathway forward.