Monday, March 28, 2016

The Phillies Roster and the Final Week, 3/28

Let's be clear here- we know what spots are still open on the Phillies. The fifth starter fight could be decided today, and if not it will be soon. They have two open spots, probably on their bench, with at least one needing to be an outfielder on some level. Then they have three undecided bullpen spots. Basically 19 spots are filled:

  • Jeremy Hellickson, Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton, and Jerad Eickhoff are all in the rotation.
  • Cameron Rupp and Carlos Ruiz will be the catchers.
  • Ryan Howard, Darin Ruf, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Maikel Franco, and Andres Blanco are coming north as infielders.
  • Odubel Herrera and Peter Bourjos have starting outfield spots, while Tyler Goeddel has an outfield spot of some kind. 
  • Dalier Hinojosa, David Hernandez, Brett Oberholtzer, and Jeanmar Gomez seem like bullpen locks. 
  • Cody Asche will start on the 15 day DL. Aaron Altherr and Matt Harrison are headed to the 60 day DL. Mario Hollands will be on the DL, it's just a matter of which one.
  • Jorge Alfaro, Roman Quinn, Taylor Featherston, David Buchanan, Severino Gonzalez, Alec Asher, Jimmy Cordero, Colton Murray, and Edubray Ramos are on the 40 man roster, but in the minor league camp now. Counting Asche, the Phillies have at least 10 spots on the 40 man filled with players who will not break camp with the team, possibly 11 depending on which DL Hollands goes to.
The Phillies have two 40 man spots available for certain, possibly three if Hollands is put on the 60 day DL. Beyond that, they would have to make cuts. The battles for the spots are:
  • Starting pitchers- Vince Velasquez and Adam Morgan are battling down to the final week. Both have a 40 man spot, making this a simple preference call for the front office. My sense is that they want to pick Velasquez, though Morgan has thrown really well. Count this as Velasquez, and shift Morgan as the 11th player on the MLB roster sent to minor league camp. If it goes the other way, that doesn't wildly change the overall roster composition, as they take up the same spots.
  • Outfield/Bench- The Phillies have two spots to fill amongst their position players and several options to do it with. Darnell Sweeney is still in camp and has a 40 man spot, though I think the Phillies would prefer to see him play every day in AAA over the bulk of the season. Still, he's an option because he has options and versatility. Non-roster invitees Cedric Hunter, David Lough, Emmanuel Burriss, and Ryan Jackson are still in camp too. For me, Hunter and Burriss stand out, one for his potential upside in a platoon with Goeddel (Hunter), and the other for his versatility (Burriss). If the Phillies are committed to giving Hunter regular plate appearances, I prefer him, but I doubt that. I would prefer to see them keep Sweeney and Burriss as a result.
  • Bullpen- There are a lot of guys in the mix yet. Elvis Araujo, Luis Garcia, and Hector Neris are all "incumbents" from last year, of sorts, but all have options and work to do. Lefty David Stumpf is a Rule 5 pick, and therefore likely a favorite to make this team. That leaves the Phillies with Michael Mariot on the 40 man roster, who is likely headed to the minors with the first three. The Phillies would have two open spots on the 40 man, and two in the bullpen if Stumpf is on. Non-roster righties Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri, and Andrew Bailey, and lefties James Russell and Bobby La Fromboise are still in camp competing for these spots. My sense is that Mujica is a favorite here. If Mujica is making the team, that leaves one or two spots, depending on Stumpf. Bailey has out-pitched Frieri overall, but it's much closer in the last week. Both lefties have thrown well, but would require a roster spot they don't currently have. I would guess that Mujica, Stumpf, and Frieri will win the initial spots, while Bailey and Russell go down until their out-clause dates or an opening occurs, and La Fromboise goes down awaiting how Stumpf does in the bigs.
Under this scenario, Velasquez, Sweeney, Burriss, Mujica, Stumpf, and Frieri come North to fill out the 25 man roster. Morgan, Araujo, Garcia, Neris, and Mariot join the nine other players in minor league camp with 40 man spots. The Phillies round out this roster with Asche on the 15 day DL, eventually coming up and replacing Sweeney.

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