Saturday's Bernie Wins Didn't Change the Race

Bernie Sanders had a great Saturday. In fact, he had about as good of a night as possible. His "small" victory was the Hawaii win with 69%. I'm not sure if this is a sign of Clinton's weakness or the left's idealism, but either way, there should be some genuine concern from pro-Clinton folks about a candidate who seems well on her way to the nomination getting beaten this badly, this late in the process. Even if we dismiss this as a demographic driven event, it is still one that should be very concerning if you want to see Hillary Clinton win this election. All of that aside- Bernie had a great night. He won with astronomical margins in three states on one day.

Now, the bad news for Bernie- no, the race did not change on Saturday. Hillary entered the day with a 303 elected delegate lead (we'll not add in super-delegates at this point in the conversation). As of now, she has a 268 delegate lead, 1,243-975. Bernie Sanders gained 35 delegates in the three smashing wins. Now, as they were caucuses, and in the case of Washington State specifically, some of the delegates from these wins will be apportioned later. Bernie is expected to end up gaining another 25-35 delegates in May or so from these states. In other words, he may narrow her elected delegate lead to close to 230 or so, after these states are entirely counted. There are roughly 1,747 remaining delegates, meaning Bernie needs a 990-757 or better type of split. He needs about 56.7% of the remaining delegates. That may seem possible to you right now. The reality is that it's unlikely.

Let's look forward on the calendar for a moment. Next up on the schedule is Wisconsin and it's 86 delegates, followed by Wyoming and it's 14, followed by New York and it's 247, before a massive 384 delegate day on April 26th that will include Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Can Sanders make up ground during April with that calendar?

Back in February, a Marquette poll put Bernie up by a point, but a more recent Emerson poll put Clinton up six. Let's assume that Marquette ends up being right for a moment, a rather biased assumption- Bernie may end up taking a 44-42 split of the elected delegates under that scenario, a gain of about two delegates. Wyoming on the other hand is more fertile ground for him. With 14 elected delegates, Bernie may win a split around 11-3 or 12-2 out of there, if his margin is similar places like Idaho, Washington, or Utah. Let's say he nets 12 delegates in those two states, and cuts the eventual margin to about 220 delegates. That is basically the end of the line. In New York, Hillary holds a lead of 48% in one poll, and the RCP average is 34.5%. Let's say she ends up winning by 15% in New York, a great outcome for Bernie, she would still come out around 140-107 in the pledged delegate count there, re-extending her lead to about 250 delegates, just amongst pledged delegates. A lead of about 250 delegates, now with around 1,400 pledged delegates to go is a much taller climb for Sanders- he'd have to win 825-575, or about 58.9% of the remaining delegates. The problem for him is that April 26th does not look good for him. Pennsylvania is currently giving her leads averaging out to 27.5%, meaning she may very well win the 189 elected delegates 60-40, or 113-76. Maryland is also giving Hillary Clinton a 30% type of margin in polling, meaning she may win their 95 elected delegates 60-40, or about 57-38. Those two states alone would pad her margin by 56 delegates, putting her back around 300 delegates up. Even if he won Delaware (21), Connecticut (55), and Rhode Island (24) by a 60-40 margin of 60-40, Hillary would hold a lead of about 286 delegates at that point, with 1,016 delegates remaining. Bernie would need at least a 651-365 split, or 64.1% of the remaining delegates, to tie. At least.

There are  302 delegates between April 26th and June 5th. Indiana's 83 go first, and if we want to be charitable, maybe Bernie matches Michigan and pulls out a 42-41 type of win. Maybe. Clinton probably also does no worse than a virtual draw in Puerto Rico, with it's 60 delegates. Let's say Sanders ends up with an impressive ten delegate pick up in those two, but wins the 159 delegates from Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and the Virgin Islands by the necessary 64.1% margin, 102-57. He would gain 55 delegates in the process, and be down by a 231 delegate margin with 714 to go. He would need to win the remaining delegates 473-241 to win. He would need 66.2% of the remaining delegates to win the elected delegate race.

On June 7th, California (475), New Jersey (126), Montana (21), New Mexico (34), North Dakota (18), and South Dakota (20) will cast votes for 694 delegates, before Washington, DC votes for 20 more. Can he win 66.2% of those votes? Let's put this to be fast- no. Hillary holds a 9% lead according to RCP's average in California, and 7.2% in HuffPo's average. Let's say he actually narrows California to a tie, and wins the delegate count 238-237- that alone makes it impossible for him to win the race. In New Jersey, RCP has Clinton up 31%, while HuffPo has it at 25%. At best, he narrows that to about 10%, or a 69-57 split. That puts her lead at 242 delegates, with 93 left, which is insurmountable. Giving him a 68-25 split there, she wins by 199 delegates. If she in fact wins the 4,051 by about 200 delegates, she will have about 2,125 delegates to Bernie's 1,926. Bernie can only change that if he can dramatically change the current polls in New York, New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania, and Maryland- big, diverse states that mostly have closed primaries. Given that we put every single race breaking at least towards him here, he'll be very fortunate to keep her to 2,125 in the end. If he does though, she would be 258 delegates short of the win, which brings me to....

Super-Delegates. They are a reality of life here. She has 469 of the 714 right now, while he has 29. There are currently 216 undeclared super-delegates out there as well, but frankly if she wins the final tally by 199 delegates, I don't see that as even mattering. If she wins 2,125, my current projection, she would get to 2,594 with her current "supers." That's about 211 more than she needs to win. If the super-delegates listened to "the will of the people" and matched the popular vote, she would win 375 of the 714 super-delegates though, and would still have 2,500. There's no reason to believe that will happen though, as she's more likely to end up with over 600 of the super-delegates, as the rules say they can vote their own will. In other words, look for her to finish with about 2,750 delegates or so, on the low end. The reality is, there's no reason to think the super-delegates won't continue their march towards her, or that he will do better than the elected delegate split I gave him above.

Let's say it happens though- let's say Bernie does change the race. Maybe it's a surge in Pennsylvania, or a huge win in California, or a rise in New York or New Jersey. Let's say he makes up not only the 199 deficit, but ends up winning the elected delegate count by a hand full. In my view, if that somehow happens, the Democratic Party should nominate him, as she will be in a free fall. My opinion is not binding on anyone though. It is likely that even then, he will not win the nomination. Give him a 100 delegate swing, and an elected delegate win of 2,026-2,025. Is he going to be able to get to 2,383 with super-delegates, needing 357 super-delegates? He has 29 right now, and would need 328 more. I don't see that happening. He is not popular with the party leaders. He would likely need to win all of the remaining elected delegates by about 450, both over-turning her lead and giving himself a safe-padding. That is winning by damn near 25% the rest of the way, coming from a current position of being down large margins in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and even in California.

I see no way that Bernie Sanders wins the nomination, even after his huge wins on Saturday. I expect that she crosses the 2,383 threshold on June 7th at the latest, coming into the night under my calculations about 149 total delegates short. It is highly unlikely to happen in April, but it's possible, and there are opportunities to end the race in May for her. I suspect that Senator Sanders will run until June no matter what, and that is certainly his right. He has the money to do it, and he has supporters willing to fight for him.

The main point of all of this is this: not all major events matter. Bernie Sanders scored a crushing victory over a favored front-runner for the Democratic nomination in three separate states. That is an event worth us recognizing. It also didn't change the race. There are only a few opportunities to change the race, and frankly none of them is coming up for a little while yet.