The Democratic Race: Perception vs. Reality

There were four contests over the weekend on the Democratic side- Kansas, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Maine. Bernie Sanders won three of them- Kansas, Maine, and Nebraska. He won all of them by double-digits. Hillary Clinton won one contest. Hillary came out with a lead of around 11 or 12 delegates for this weekend alone. This is in part because of "super-delegates," and in part because of who won what.

Bernie Sanders won three out of four contests, and won them all convincingly. At this time, that net him four elected delegates in Nebraska, 13 in Kansas, and eight in Maine, according to Real Clear Politics, for a margin of 25 elected delegates from those three states. The same RCP reporting puts her up 23 elected delegates in Louisiana. Under that math, Senator Sanders nets a 2 delegate lead. That math leaves four delegates from Louisiana, one from Nebraska, and three from Maine to be determined, essentially a likely wash. It shows the race overall though at 658-471 amongst elected delegates, in favor of Clinton, with the overall race at 1,130-499 as well, with American Samoa and Democrats Abroad still being unresolved. Under that math, Clinton is 1,252 delegates away from the nomination, with close to 3,000 elected delegates still available. In other words, she can win by getting just 40% of the remaining delegates.

Politico shows a bit different story though. They show all of the delegates, elected and not, in their counts of the states. They show her currently winning Louisiana by 31 delegates, while he wins Maine by six, Nebraska by one, and Kansas by 12. By that math, Clinton has won the weekend by 12 delegates. They show three delegates out in Kansas, seven out in Louisiana, four out in Maine, and three in Nebraska. Their overall delegate tracker shows the race in the same place.

By a pro-Sanders count, he may end up winning the weekend by one or two elected delegates, barely denting a 187 delegate deficit. By a more complete look at the weekend, including all the delegates who will go to Philadelphia, Clinton gained another dozen. By any math, Clinton can win the nomination with roughly 40% of the remaining delegates. That is the main point of all of this- despite the media narrative and "momentum game" of the race, Senator Sanders needs to change the state of the race to win. On the current trajectory, even simply winning the rest of the primaries won't be enough for Senator Sanders. It might seem like he had a great weekend, but in reality, he didn't have a great enough one.