- On the Republican side, I predicted Donald Trump would finish with 670 delegates, Ted Cruz with 430, Marco Rubio with 165, and John Kasich with 138. In reality, Trump is at 673, Cruz is at 411, Rubio is at 169, and Kasich is at 143. I was pretty close, it appears.
- On the Democratic side, I predicted Hillary Clinton to come in between 1,625 and 1,650 delegates. I predicted Bernie Sanders to come in between 850 and 900. In reality, Clinton leads 1,606 to 851.
I got it pretty close to right, it seems. So, what's next?
Next week, Arizona and Utah will get their say for the Republicans, before a long break. There are 98 delegates available, and 58 of them are "winner-take-all" in Arizona. Donald Trump will win them, unless John Kasich and Ted Cruz make an agreement for just one of them to really run there. They may be able to stop him in Utah, but would need a similar deal to be in place. Expect right now that Trump will win 75-80 more delegates this month, as is, putting him at close to 750 delegates.
He will be at less than 500 delegates away going into Wisconsin on April 5th and it's 42. There is certainly a chance that John Kasich could win there, and it is a "winner-take-most" system, where he would start at a majority just by winning the state. In other words, Trump is likely to only gain about 90 delegates in the next month, prior to New York's April 19th primary, and it's 95 delegates. That state is not "winner-take-all," so I could see Trump winning only about 140 before the next big primary day, April 26th.
On that day, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland are "winner-take-all" states, totaling 125 delegates, and Connecticut and Rhode Island are proportional. Trump should do well, if not win in Connecticut and Rhode Island, and he will be in a real battle to win Pennsylvania with Kasich, most likely. At max, he could win 95 more that day, but that would largely hinge on winning Pennsylvania's 71. That maxes him out at 235 delegates won by the end of April, under a worst case scenario.
That would put him at 905 delegates overall, or 332 short of the nomination. Indiana's "winner-take-most" system on May 3rd will split up 57 delegates is next, and it will be a fight between him and Kasich. If he loses there, he'd get some portion of the delegates, but it won't be much. Nebraska and West Virginia go next, one of which will be a battle with Cruz (Nebraska), and one with Kasich (West Virginia). Nebraska is "winner-take-all," but West Virginia is proportional, so he will get some chunk of the 34 delegates there. Give him 25 total there in early May, so he'd be around 930. May finishes on the GOP side with Oregon (28) and Washington (44), two states that Trump would seem to do fine in, and both are proportional. Let's assume that Trump can safely get to 950 delegates by the end of May. That would put him 287 away going into June.
In June, it's all about one day- June 7th. Montana (27), South Dakota (29), and New Jersey (51) are winner-take-all, and Trump will be favored in New Jersey. New Mexico (24) is proportional, so assume Trump wins a few more delegates there. California is the big prize though, and it splits it's delegates "winner-take most." Assume he doesn't win the state with 172 delegates, but assume he wins at least 25 there. All told, I see him winning a minimum of 85 delegates that day, putting him at about 1,035, or 202 away.
Again though- that is the best case scenario for the anti-Trump forces. The best case is he's 202 away, and has the most delegates. Worst case? He wins another 320 by the end of April, tacks on 100 in May, and north of 150 in June. That would win him the nomination, but barely. My best guess is that Trump ends up falling like 100 delegates short at the end of this process.
And for the Democrats?
Hillary will carry her 1,606-851 lead into six more contests this month, most of which she will lose. Tuesday she will have a shot in Arizona (85), but will probably not win Idaho (27) or Utah (37). Let's give her about 70 delegates, and him 79. Then we go to Alaska (20), Hawaii (34), and Washington (118), all of which are caucuses that favor Sanders. Let's give her another 70, and him 102. That takes the math to 1,746-1,031.
Next month, contests in Wisconsin (96) and Wyoming (18) probably slightly favor Sanders. Give him 67, and her 47. Then we go to New York, where she should be favored to win the majority of the 291 delegates. Let's split them 160-131 for her. That means she will have picked up 207 to his 198 prior to the big April 26th date. That day, Pennsylvania (210) and Maryland (118) are the big prizes, and Clinton is at least slightly favored to carry both. Connecticut (70), Delaware (31), and Rhode Island (33) are all on the calendar that day. I would expect her to carry three of the states that day, and about 260 of the delegates to his 203. Add up April and she is up 2,213-1,432.
She will have all but clinched going into May, where she will be at least a slight favorite in Indiana (92) and Guam (12), while she may be a slight underdog in West Virginia (37), Kentucky (61), and Oregon (74). If she wins 125 of the 276 (so he wins 151), She will be at 2,338 going into June. She'd almost have to be shut out to not win the nomination. With 930 delegates on the line in June, if she just wins 400 of them (aka- loses), she's at 2,738. She would nearly win the nomination under this humble scenario with just elected delegates. In other words, even if Bernie Sanders does really well the rest of the way, Hillary clinches the nomination by June. If he doesn't, she could do it even in April.
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