Can the Post-Industrial West Work?

A major political party has nominated a white-nationalist with no experience to be President of the United States. A major western power just voted to leave the European Union over xenophobic fears about immigration. Another major western power might just hand the Presidency of France to an openly nativist candidate.

Something is not right here.

In the post-industrial west, the formerly white working class voters have increasingly gravitated towards answers to their problems that are grounded in identity politics. Immigrants, the poor, general "others" must be the reason the good paying, low skill jobs left, and why we simply can't keep up with our standard of living moving forward. The "solution" to our losses was cheap credit, and now that's not even as plentiful, and clearly the issues we're facing are simply not being addressed by anyone. Not Democrats, not Republicans. Neither ideological pole has a solution to their problems.

In that space of no political solutions, it is easy for an ignoramus like Mr. Trump to rise, blaming all the "others" out there for our problems, or an opportunist like Ted Cruz who simply says anything the government does is bad. Once a Boris Johnson emerges out of the political abyss and has some level of success, like possibly being the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, you can't put that back in the bag. It's not as though the Trump voters will think they are wrong, just because they don't win in November. You can't shut down the Tea Party, Rob Ford, UKIP, or anyone else in this vein. Their victories reinforce their message. Their defeats reinforce their message. It is always the fault of the elites.

The scary thing here is that some of this has crept into a left-wing in the western world that increasingly can't sell it's victories, it's agenda, or it's vision for our way of life. Our victories are married to demographic trends, and even when we achieve them, we end up fighting against our left flank to defend whether or not they were "good enough." The left in America and Canada is at least capable of winning a national election. Increasingly in Europe, that is gone. They are no match for the xenophobia and hyper-nationalism that is rising.

In a few decades, all of the industrial era people will be gone, and some of this will hopefully dissipate. In the meanwhile, we're in for some hard times, hard times that might just end up pushing us down the rabbit hole of bad policies and permanent changes. If that happens, all bets are off. Either way, the post-industrial West is not looking good in it's prospects. It's possible that it just won't work.

Donald's Implosion, Why He's Still Dangerous, and Why He's Still Here

Donald Trump is not doing very well right now. He's losing by double-digits in some national polls, but losing outside of the margin of error in just about all of them. To be clear, that is odd in recent political memory. At this point in 2008, for instance, John McCain was still very much alive, and even leading in the polls some times- and he lost by a lot.

That he's losing isn't the end of the world though. Donald Trump may be behind by an alarming amount in the polls, but it is June, and he has months to move the public. The problem he has is that he's stone-cold broke. He doesn't have the money to advertise and change minds. He doesn't have a ground game out there in the battleground states either. Top all of that off with the fact that he just canned his manager, and you see why Trump's White House hopes are dimming.

Let me touch on something being missed though, particularly about his manager- that may be the most dangerous piece to him of all. Corey Lewandowski was not "qualified" to run this race. That's precisely why Trump succeeded in the primaries. A more established manager would never have allowed Trump to go out and gin up white supremacists, the angry, and hillbillies. Lewandowski did. This is why Trump won. Let's be clear, no policy won him this race on it's own, the general idea that Trump stood with those people brought them out. The idea that he would say exactly what those folks felt was what made him attractive. Lewandowski was the perfect manager for Donald Trump, the manager who allowed him to function at "peak Trump."

So, in the midst of all of this talk about Trump's current implosion, it's important to not get caught up in it. The same people that nominated Trump, and many more like them, still exist. Donald Trump will probably continue to try and reach them. As long as those two things are true, Donald Trump remains dangerous. Should he be able to win with the message he has? Of course not. MOST of these people voted for past Republican nominees, and obviously they've won the popular vote one out of the last six times. Even so, the fact that Donald Trump understood what the Republican electorate really wanted to hear (note here: it's not "limited government"), shows just how dangerous he can be. The man is actually not a great businessman (he bankrupted many companies), he's a great marketer. He showed us his marketing prowess in the primaries. He still has that in him. Sure, every metric shows him to be in big danger, and he is, but I wouldn't get over confident yet.

The only question that I can still not answer about Donald though is his motivation. Why is he doing this? I suspect that a few years from now, we'll find out that he felt slighted by another candidate (probably Jeb), or the party didn't treat him with respect when seeking his donation, or some other personal motivation drug him into this, which is also why he doesn't seem to have the same fire right now, when he's the presumptive nominee, like he did during the primaries. He certainly didn't plan this out like a campaign, and he clearly didn't take the advice of major political consultants. Getting into his head on all of this would be fascinating.

Regardless, Donald Trump has some major issues right now, but he's not "dead" politically. People would be foolish to read too deep into his issues in June, and assume that we will defeat him easily.

To the GOP, The Gun Manufacturers Matter More Than 49 Lives

It isn't the slightest bit shocking to me, but it's just as repulsive as ever to know that the U.S. Senate doesn't give a damn about it's citizenry. When a madman mowed down a bunch of little children at Sandy Hook, we couldn't get them to vote to vote on universal background checks. I'm hardly shocked that another madman shooting up a night club didn't move them now.

Even so, 53 Senators voted last night against such things as preventing suspected terrorists from buying guns. They voted against preventing people who aren't allowed on an airplane, because they're a terrorist, from buying a gun. They would rather allow Omar Mateen to be able to buy a gun, or the next version of him, than protect the public. Let's be clear, this man was a known potential problem, but there was no legal way to stop him yet. Those 53 Senators voted against things like alerting the FBI that people like him bought guns. That's where we're at.

I'm sure that many of you who are repulsed will end up in an argument with a good ole' fashioned "gun nut" over whether or not these bills should have passed, and you'll probably tell yourself it's amazing that these people get their way. We're talking about people who think arming everyone will keep us safer, or that we can't have licensing and registry of guns because the "guvmint'" might come take them. Let me be clear though- the lunatic that argues with you that he needs an AK-47 in case he has to fight the government is not the kind of person that convinced those 53 Senators. Oh sure, those Senators will accept their support and take their credit, but they did not vote against gun safety measures because of your local "gun nut."

What happened on the Senate floor yesterday was clearly the work of the gun manufacturers' lobby, which is basically now the NRA. While the NRA pretends to represent their members, it's worth noting that most of their members support universal background checks and preventing terrorists and criminals from buying guns. The NRA does not really represent their membership though. They represent big companies that produce guns, and fund the NRA. They are nothing more than a lobbying arm for the gun manufacturers, as are the other groups like them. In this case, money talks.

And so it goes again- 49 dead humans are no match for the cold, hard cash of a gun manufacturer. Human life, the anguish of the families, and the sadness of a nation are all no match for those who fund the "Big Gun" machine in Washington. Take note America, one party voted at the behest of the NRA. The other one didn't. Recognize who runs one, but not the other. As long as the Republican Party runs the Senate, expect more of this. Expect the same in the House. When you say "they are all the same," this is just the latest example of why you are wrong.

Hate Your Party? Join It

A lot of voters, Democrat and Republican, have been complaining about their parties this year. They've called them everything from inept to corrupt (which is worse?). They've complained about their Presidential choices, the calendar of primaries, the closed systems of the primaries, and everything in between.

Parties are not faceless organizations in Washington. They are local parties in your town. Every county in the country holds elections for precinct committeeman on the county Democratic and Republican committees. If you don't like the positions of the party you should be agreeing with, start there. Take part in the process, stop throwing bombs at it. Run for county committee, then move up. Keep going from there. Run for office. If you want your party to change, go change it. Don't complain about something you are doing nothing to make better.

Who is Really the Weakest Republican Nominee?

Donald Trump is having an awful week, one that is making Republicans worry. Could they lose the House with him as nominee? Could they wipe out for a generation? There are genuine fears about Trump amongst Republicans, ones that are only heightened by his flub on abortion this week, saying he would "punish" women who had abortions, then taking two more positions within three hours that don't match. Trump is a fraud, and the "professional" Republican class knows that, but they can't convince their voters of it.

Accordingly, almost all active Democrats seem to be embracing a run against Trump. They realize that he's so deeply flawed that there is an opening to beat him, and the broader Republican Party, badly. The standard logic that I and many others have followed is that running against a white-nationalist billionaire, with no experience at all for this job, and who says insane things, is good. I don't discount that logic even now. I just think there may be an argument for other candidates as being even weaker.

With Donald Trump, he absolutely motivates Democrats to go out and vote against him. He offends so many people that it's easier to turn them out. He also motivates masses of ignorant people though. He motivates bigots. With Trump, his negativity cuts both ways. Yes, he helps us, but he also doesn't give them a boost too. Democrats win that battle nine times out of ten, but there is a counter balance.

With Ted Cruz, he is almost as offensive and unelectable as Trump, but he motivates less people to his side. Cruz's base are fanatical religious right-wingers, "Oathkeepers," and other people who are very ideological. While these people may like him fervently, they aren't showing up "more" than they have in the past- these people already voted. Cruz is not the one bringing new voters and groups into the party like Trump, he's just the latest extremist to motivate the purists. Ironically, the man who has railed against the establishment longest is basically becoming the establishment-esque guy. Cruz turns off almost as many normal voters as Trump, but he really doesn't motivate anyone like Trump does.

This leaves John Kasich, the obviously most electable Republican in the field, right? I mean, the polling says so, so it has to be so. The problem with that logic of course is that no one is attacking Governor Kasich right now, which is giving people the idea that he's a moderate. While he carries that aura now, I don't believe he can get the nomination and carry it into November. You see, for Kasich to win the nomination, he will have to come from third place in the delegate count to take the nomination from Trump and his large group of fringe-y supporters. All of these surge voters coming out to give Trump the nod will not stick with Kasich. Most of them will turn on him actually, and probably attack him from the right. As that happens, the Clinton campaign will be railing on his record as Governor, a record that includes defunding Planned Parenthood, amongst his many other not-moderate achievements. Kasich would fold like a house of cards with the nomination.

Democrats can lose this election, but they basically have to beat themselves. None of these Republicans is overly electable, and the party's time to stop this kind of nightmare situation was back during 2015, when they could have fallen in line behind a better candidate than Marco Rubio (basically anyone). They didn't do so, and now they have this mess. I'm not sure that Democrats really have a preference though on which of the clowns wins- one is too toxic to win and turns up our turnout, one is too toxic to win and doesn't motivate anyone, and the third is boring now, and would have to become toxic to win the nomination. It's a lose-lose-lose proposition for them- so Democrats please, stay out of your own way.

Police Raids, Torture- Maybe the GOP Can Just Call for a Concentration Camp Next

Everyone who watched the terror in Brussels yesterday was horrified. The senseless death and pain inflicted on the public by the monsters of ISIS deserves a tough response. While that may not mean another ground war in the Middle East (in fact, it shouldn't, at least if we're fighting it), all decent people should join together to destroy ISIS.

We also should not abandon our values. We have a free and open society. The minute America abandons that for the sake of safety, we're just not the same people. We become not much better, frankly, when we start targeting innocents in any group of people, for the purpose of making others feel safe. Here's the truth- America is a very safe place, but there will always be exceptions to the rule. I ride in subways in New York, in Philadelphia, in Washington, and I know the risks associated with that. I do not want us to infringe on the civil liberties and human rights of others to make me .01% safer from the frankly impossible to totally prevent events like we saw in Paris and in Brussels. There will always be crazies. They will always commit harm. We will always be disappointed to see this. I think our government does a very good job preventing as much of this as possible. I'm fine with their current efforts.

Ted Cruz apparently is not though. He's a Presidential candidate, but he called for police to patrol and secure "Muslim neighborhoods." This disgusting suggestion of engaging in strong-man, "big brother" tactics across the nation are beneath a Presidential candidate. The good Muslim-Americans in Orange County, Dearborn, Brooklyn, and other places are not criminals, and do not deserve to have their civil rights infringed on by a megalomaniac like Cruz. This suggestion is beneath our nation.

But.... Donald Trump had to one up that. He accused British Muslims of not reporting suspicious activity, agreed with Cruz, and then said we need to go back to waterboarding suspected terrorists. Basically, Donald Trump called for us to use torture. This is obviously illegal, stupid, and doesn't work. He wants to do it anyway. Because of course he does, he's Donald Trump.

Since the GOP candidates are trying to one-up each other with crazy xenophobic statements about Muslims, I guess we can expect someone to call for "internment camps" like we used during World War II for Muslims, or maybe full-blown concentration camps after that. This kind of red-meat feeding to the masses of ignorant voters these two are attracting to the primary polls is well beneath the standard of such past Republican Presidents as Lincoln, Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and even Reagan and the Bush duo. The Republican Party should be embarrassed to have these men running for their nomination.

My Dog Learns Better Than the GOP

Meet Nugget. Nugget is a two or three-year old pug. He's generally a good boy, but he has his moments where he's not as good. When he's not good, we yell at him. He gets upset that he was bad, and he stops being bad. Hence, I can say that Nugget is a good boy.

The GOP could learn a lot from my little Nugget. He has fun, he likes to enjoy himself, but when he's bad, he stops being bad. The Republican Party's response to their failings in the Bush Administration was to turn loose their craziest forces in the Tea Party. When they unleashed those crazies, they started rambling about "taking their country back" and the President being a Muslim. As the crazy talk about the President not being a resident went unanswered by the GOP base, they were more emboldened, and they pushed their 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney, to adopt much of their crazy rhetoric. Mitt Romney, like John McCain before him, lost.

The GOP's activist wing pushed Romney too far to the right, and made an electable candidate into a loser. Much of the same thing happened to McCain, who selected Sarah Palin as his running-mate to appease those folks. One would think that after 2008 and 2012, the GOP may have tried to sound more reasonable this cycle. They did not. Now, they have Donald Trump beating down the gates for the nomination. They have Ted Cruz chasing him. Nobody else really has a chance to win the GOP nomination. After previously forcing two previously-labeled moderates to adopt crazy conservatism to win the nomination, now the GOP's base is demanding a nominee who is as nuts as them. Clearly, they learned nothing.

When my dog does something that doesn't turn out well for him, he usually stops doing it. It doesn't mean he doesn't want to do that bad thing, it means he knows it's a bad idea. In other words, he has some intelligent thoughts. That's more than I can say for sure about the GOP.

No, There is Not Going to be a Brokered Convention for an Establishment Republican

Donald Trump won all but one of the primary contests on Tuesday for the Republican Party and knocked out their "golden boy" Marco Rubio. At the end of the night, he made it mathematically impossible for John Kasich to win the nomination, and virtually impossible for Ted Cruz to do so either. Yes, he could fall as much as 200 delegates short of the necessary number to win the nomination, that is true (as I wrote).  Even under that "best case scenario" for the GOP establishment, they cannot beat Donald Trump on the first ballot after Tuesday, and he had a very good night.

Still, all the media, professional Republicans in DC, and even some Republican friends of mine on social media want to talk about is a "brokered convention." Let me just dump some cold water on that right now- it's not happening, at least not how you think. There is no pathway to nominate Mitt Romney. There is no pathway to nominate Paul Ryan. No, you're not going to resurrect the hopes of John Kasich just because he won his home state's primary. The Republican Party is going to nominate Donald Trump. If they are really hellbent on fighting on the convention floor to stop him, they might be able to get to Ted Cruz. There is no other pathway for any other person. They are the only Republican options.

First off, Donald Trump is going to finish no worse than 200 delegates from the nomination. He will have the shortest path to the nomination at the end of the process. Republican Party leadership is not going to want to have two months of limbo at the end of the primary process, and they will want to get to a winner as soon as possible, especially since Hillary will be the Democratic nominee by then. Even with all of Trump's issues, he's probably stronger than someone who emerges two months later, two months behind the Democratic nominee. There will be party leaders who will simply want the process over, and will turn to the first place finisher.

If it does get to the convention floor though, he will needed 200 or less delegates. Trump's pathway there will be simply a deal or two away. Pull over the Cruz delegates, pull over the uncommitteds, or offer some other candidate the Vice-Presidency for their delegates, and he is over the top. The fact is, even in a brokered convention, Trump is favored.

Let's say there is a brokered convention though, and let's say that all of the anti-Trump forces get together and deny him the nomination. Who else could win? Well, the obvious choice is Ted Cruz. He is in second place, he has the second shortest pathway to the nomination. He also probably has the most similarities with Trump, so if you were to somehow peel Trump delegates away, you would probably see them go there. Rubio delegates could back Cruz, and so could uncommitteds. He's even starting to gather establishment endorsements. It would be really hard for Ted Cruz to win, but he is literally the only person that could do so besides Trump.

Why do I say that? Math. Let's start with a basic premise here- Trump and Cruz will have the most delegates, and if you add them up, they will constitute a majority of the convention floor. Would any Trump or Cruz delegates defect to a Mitt Romney candidacy? I doubt many would. Would they accept Paul Ryan as a "consensus" pick. It's not likely many would. Of course, there is John Kasich, who may do reasonably well going forward, but is extremely likely to finish third in the delegate count, even if he does. Kasich is sort of a less exciting Marco Rubio- the establishment loves him, he's a creature of DC, and he's "more pragmatic" than Trump and Cruz. Why would the Trump and Cruz delegates move over to him. It doesn't really make any logical sense. If the Cruz delegates think Trump can lose, wouldn't they want to win? If they can't win, why would they back an establishment candidate? It doesn't make any logical sense. If Trump and Cruz's delegates make up the majority of the floor, and they are both fairly anti-establishment candidates, it's unlikely the supporters of either are going to break away for an establishment "consensus" pick.

There is really only three possible outcomes here:

1. Trump wins enough delegates, the race is over.
2. Trump gets the most delegates, but not enough to win the nomination, and he makes a deal with some group of delegates to get over the top.
3. Ted Cruz comes in second, makes deals, and wins the nomination.

So, what is Kasich's play here? Well, the more delegates he has, the more leverage he has. My sense is that if he has a fairly sizable number of delegates, he may negotiate them for the VP slot. That makes more sense between him and Cruz, but he may even do it with Trump. A Cruz-Kasich alliance could emerge in the days after the primaries, and that alliance could rival or surpass Trump in delegates. They could go to the convention together, simply looking to pick off Rubio and Uncommitted delegates, as well as party leaders with votes. They could possibly edge Donald Trump out in a vote count and be the ticket. It is mathematically possible. It's also the third, and least likely outcome.

Here's the simple facts- if the GOP does not give a clear first-place finishing Trump the nomination, he is likely to turn their convention into chaos. He's also likely to either launch a third-party bid, or actively play a negative role in the race. Obviously if he implodes and finishes 300 or 400 delegates short of the nomination, it's easier to dismiss him as a sore-loser. If he wins though, and is really 200 delegates or less from the nomination, the GOP would be seen as denying him his victory. They are not going to really want to do that. They certainly aren't going to do that for the third place finisher or someone who didn't run. I know that's not what a lot of people want to hear- a brokered convention is much more fun, and Trump is repulsive- but that's reality.

Trump Starts Threatening the GOP

Is this Presidential? Hardly.

“I think we'll win before getting to the convention, but I can tell you, if we didn't and if we're 20 votes short or if we're 100 short and we're at 1,100 and somebody else is at 500 or 400, because we're way ahead of everybody, I don't think you can say that we don't get it automatically. I think it would be — I think you'd have riots,” Trump told CNN's "New Day."

Trump said he's bringing in all kinds of new people to the party, and those voices must be heard — or else.

"Now, if you disenfranchise those people and you say, well I'm sorry but you're 100 votes short, even though the next one is 500 votes short, I think you would have problems like you've never seen before. I think bad things would happen, I really do. I believe that. I wouldn't lead it but I think bad things would happen," he said.

Shorter Donald- Sorry GOP, I know you have a number of delegates (1,237) that you need for the nomination, but if I'm anywhere remotely close to that, you'll nominate me, or my ignorant followers will get violent. This is not the talk a President would be giving us at this stage in the race.

At this hour, Donald Trump has 661 delegates. Ted Cruz is second with 406. Trump needs 576 more delegates to win the nomination.

Congratulations to the Ohio Republican Governor- Ohio Republicans Don't Hate You

I get it, the bar is low for John Kasich. The Ohio Governor won his home state, something that Marco Rubio couldn't do. He doesn't sound as ideologically crazy as Ted Cruz. He's not the kind of angry bigot that Donald Trump is. By comparison with his opposition, Governor Kasich looks and seems like a competent, decent guy.

Let's be very clear though, Kasich is not on a march to the White House. He won his home state last night. He won his home state's primary, to be more precise, something we would absolutely expect of any Governor running in any normal Presidential election. That Rubio lost his home state should not change the standard we would normally hold a candidate too, including Kasich. Dropping confetti and acting like you won the Super Bowl for winning your home state primary is absolutely ridiculous. He remains in fourth place out of three active candidates in delegates even after winning his very first primary last night. He lost neighboring Michigan just last week. Much like after he finished second in New Hampshire, I question where this guy goes next. I'm sure he'll be the new "establishment" Republican candidate this week, but mark this down now- he will end up exactly like Marco Rubio in the end.

Let's also be clear, John Kasich is no moderate. Sure, he's not calling for war crimes in Syria or a wall along the Mexican border, but let's not commend people for not being insane. This man has shut down as much early voting as possible and defunded Planned Parenthood in his state. He governs a state that is trying to shut down renewable energy sources. Sure, Kasich is not as crazy as Trump or Cruz. He is absolutely an arch-conservative though, from the same ilk as George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Mitt Romney, John McCain, or Paul Ryan. Not long ago, we'd have called them all extremists. We would find them unacceptable. They still are, even if something worse has come along. John Kasich is still not an acceptable Presidential candidate.

Little Marco Never Had a Shot to be President

All I heard from my "professional" Republican friends in Harrisburg and Washington over the past year was how Marco Rubio was a great general election candidate. They talked about his youth, his "positive" demeanor, and even his ethnicity. He was the good looking, fresh face. That's what they told me. I told them all they were out of their minds. Marco Rubio was never going to be President. I told them so.

Marco Rubio had three main problems, none of which was money or support. Every Republican in Washington tried to will this guy onto victory, from defending him from Jeb Bush's totally fair attack on his no-show status in the Senate, to pushing every endorsement they could in his direction, to pumping money into his campaign. Marco had every ounce of establishment support possible. No one can say he lost for a lack of effort.

Little Marco failed for several obvious reasons. The first of which was that he never connected to voters out in the states, only to DC elites. The second reason was that Marco wasn't really all that smart, and Chris Christie laid that bare in the New Hampshire debate. The third problem was that Marco was immature, and he got down into the mud with Donald Trump and destroyed whatever positive image he had.

To be clear, had Rubio won Florida, and the establishment eventually pushed him through to the nomination in a contested convention, Marco Rubio would have lost the general election. Oh sure, you can show me a poll where he beats Hillary Clinton right now. The problem with that though, in the end, is that these polls don't fix the character flaws that Marco Rubio had. He would have had the same problems in the general election as a candidate that he has now. Nominating Rubio is about the only mistake the GOP could have made worse than the decision they are making now. The man is simply a dud of a candidate. If that wasn't clear when he was giving a "victory" speech for finishing third in Iowa, it should be clear and apparent to anyone watching now.

The GOP Really Might Nominate Donald "Drumpf" Trump

It's happening- Donald Trump is winning the Republican nomination. He won four out of five states last night, and he has moved closer to the Republican nod. He was sitting at 621 last night, and is likely to add more of them by the end of the day. He needs 1,237 delegates to win the nomination, or another 616, and there are 1,134. Even despite the wins last night, he needs 54.32% of the remaining delegates- a tall order. Even with last night's wins, this is not a lock, yet.

Even so, no one else is going to win the nomination on first ballot besides Donald Trump. No one is close enough to possibly get there. Ted Cruz won nothing last night, and he has 396 delegates as of last night. It's Donald Trump, or a chaotic mess of a convention, where the GOP ends up destroying itself over the question of whether or not to nominate this guy.

Donald Trump is going to gain more delegates as this morning goes on, and inch closer to 1,237 delegates. He had a great night, despite a week colored by riots at his events that caused cancellations, arrests, and questions over whether his campaign was responsible for the mess. If anything, these questions and debates helped him with Republican Primary voters last night. It is clear that he is the only candidate with anything close to a mandate from the GOP's voters. The Republican establishment may not like that, but denying him the nomination would come at great peril to the party.

Donald Trump is America's Worst

I've held my tongue about Donald Trump up to this point, in part because I've been hoping the Republican Party was crazy enough to nominate him for President. The man has no particular qualifications for the job, and does not have the temperament. His penchant for insulting entire groups of voters limits him to the same, lily-white base of voters that Mitt Romney lost with (to be clear, I do not believe you can expand that electorate enough to win). I have held firm that I have more faith in the American people than to believe that this clown of a person could win the general election. I have always had a belief that he could win the Republican Primary though. Their base has become so insulated, resentful, and angry that they would back someone this ignorant and incapable to be the President. Sure, he's not winning majorities, even amongst them, but it has been clear to me for months that the Republican establishment was too broken to function and clear their field.

I do find this entire process funny. In the 1980s, when I was a small child, Donald Trump was a cartoon character of a human being. He was bankrupting companies, having high-profile divorces, participating in pro-wrestling matches, becoming famous for firing people on a reality TV show, having wives get in fights over bringing dogs on airplanes, and fighting with hosts on "The View" for most of my life. The man was never a serious character. He was always a punch line. I would have personally taken a Presidential campaign by Howard Stern or David Letterman as more serious. At least they were honestly comedians. Trump was always a sideshow. Sure, some people theorize this is what is at the heart of his appeal, a sort of "kindred spirits" thing between society's outcasts and the guy we consider a joke. That may be a piece of it, but I consider it worse than that.

For me, Donald Trump represents all that is wrong with America. Trump is not some "self-made" wealthy man, but as he puts it, his father gave him "a small, million dollar loan." He's made most of his money on conning people, whether that was with his casinos taking down gambling addicts, his failed "Trump University," his mindless "reality TV" shows, or now, his ridiculous Presidential campaign. The man was born on third base, believes he hit a triple, and got to home plate on the backs of any suckers he could find in our economy. Whether he's really worth ten billion dollars or not, I'm not really impressed. Trump hasn't really been a net-positive for society.

Donald Trump's candidacy is an embarrassment to America. He has built it on the ashes of a once proud political party, simply gaming out their angry and scared voters. Because Trump is not someone who built a political career to a high office like Senator or Governor, he has no skin in the game, and because of that, he has been willing to go beyond the coded language and dog whistle talk of Republicans in times past, and has simply said what the most ignorant members of his party's base think- that Mexicans are rapists and drug dealers, that we should assume Muslims are terrorists, that protestors from the left are jobless, that all of their opponents are liars, that President Obama is a foreigner, and other ignorant, bigoted statements. By throwing this red meat that no one in "respectable politics" was willing to throw, he left his Republican opposition in the dust. In doing so, he has reduced the party to rubble. In the process, he has threatened to build a wall with our Southern neighbor, start a trade war with China, and cozy up to the likes of Vladimir Putin. He has attracted the support of David Duke, and attracted actual Ku Klux Klan men to his rallies. He refused to disavow the KKK. He's had rallies cancelled because of violence.

I do get it- Trump supporters think things are so bad that they have to "be heard," by voting for someone to blow up the "status quo." It's a tired, old "fight the man" shtick that doesn't impress me much. You live in the greatest country in the world. People are willing to die to get here. You have great national parks, great cities, great popular culture, and freedom. You don't need this snake to come "fix" us. America is great now, it doesn't need to be made great again. If you don't think it's a great place because "others" are now living as equals amongst us, I honestly just suggest you leave. You don't believe in the principles that America was founded on, and you don't deserve it's benefits. Go somewhere like Somalia, where the central government is weak, religious radicals kill opponents, and everyone is armed. You'll be happier.

So, to be clear, I have mostly begged other Democrats to shut up and let Trump be Trump throughout this mess. I believe we will beat him, and beat him handily in November. That has been a political calculation, not a value statement. I believe Donald Trump is an embarrassment to our nation, personally. I think his campaign represents all that is wrong in our politics. He has run a racist, angry, ignorant campaign, and he has fed off of the public being misinformed and fed up. I have no respect for the man, what his "movement" represents, or frankly, his supporters.

In short, if you think we need to "Make America Great Again" with Donald Trump, I think you are what's wrong with our country. I think Donald Trump is what's wrong with this country. I look forward to defeating your mindset in 2016.

At Least Little Marco Won the Only Constituency He Ever Had... (DC)

Very rarely does a victory seem to embarrass a candidacy and reinforce all that is wrong with it more than Saturday's DC Caucus victory did for Marco Rubio. The Senator who is about to lose his home state, and gave "victory" speeches for second and third place finishes in early primaries, won Washington, DC's Republican Caucus narrowly over John Kasich. The irony is fairly obvious, as the one constituency that Rubio has held throughout was the DC crowd, which views him as "electable," despite his inability to connect with any actual people outside of the Beltway. Even with them, he still only won narrowly.

This kind of tells everything you need to know:

Still, Washington, D.C.' s was the only contest victory of the night for Rubio, who won only one delegate in Wyoming. Nine of the 12 delegates went to Cruz, another went to Trump and the last delegate remained uncommitted.

The Associated Press did not call a winner in Wyoming because another 14 delegates are to be awarded at the party’s state convention next month.

No delegates went Rubio's way in Guam's presidential contest. Cruz won Guam's contest and received one, but organizers decided to reconvene Tuesday to decide where the remaining delegates will go, according to the Associated Press.

It’s the third presidential contest victory for the Rubio. He won the GOP caucuses in Minnesota on Super Tuesday, as well as the Puerto Rico primary.

Basically- This is as good as it gets for Marco.

A Republican Super Tuesday II Primer

Tomorrow, the four Republican candidates still running for President will face the voters again, this time in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois, Missouri, and the Northern Mariana Islands Caucus. "Big Donald" will try to end at least two of his rivals runs for the Presidency. Florida, Ohio, and the Northern Mariana Islands are winner-take-all. The Illinois' primary is a "winner-take-most" system.

For John Kasich, he must win his home-state of Ohio tomorrow. Polls show this as a close contest between him and Donald Trump, with him starting to lead more and more. It's doubtful that anyone else will matter in this state, and really any vote for Rubio or Cruz is a vote for Trump. I expect Kasich to take all 66 delegates with the win here.

Marco Rubio is in a similar situation in Florida, but it appears that "Little Marco" is in much dire straights. Donald Trump leads by over 20% in some polls, and may roll to a victory that humiliates Marco, and ends his campaign. I see no pathway forward for Rubio if he can't win Florida, seeing how badly he's done so far. Expect Donald Trump to claim the 99 delegates here.

The Northern Mariana Islands contest is a strange one, one of several territories and protectorates that we allow to vote in the primary, but not the general election. The governor there has endorsed Donald Trump, and that makes it very, very likely that he gets all nine delegates tomorrow.

Illinois is a difficult state to predict at this point. There is less polling, though what they have shows Donald Trump with a somewhat narrow lead over Ted Cruz. While Cruz has no "must win" tomorrow, he really could use Illinois. My guess is that Trump's violent rally cancelation in Chicago will help him, and he will claim the lion's share of the 69 delegates.

North Carolina looks like a Trump state. If anyone is going to surprise, it would have to be Cruz or Rubio, neither of whom seems close in the polling. North Carolina is not winner-take-all, but it has 72 delegates up for grabs. Trump has dominated across the south, so a loss here would be a real surprise.

There has been very little polling done in Missouri so far, but the one that is out there puts Trump a few points ahead of Cruz. Much like in Illinois, this is a good opportunity for Cruz to show he still has a shot. Win these two states, hope Trump loses Ohio, and live to fight another day. Lose everything, and sure he's still in the race, but he doesn't look like a winner. I expect Trump to win this proportional 52 delegate state.

Currently, Donald Trump leads with 460 delegates. I expect him to win around 200 more tomorrow, right now. Ted Cruz has 370 right now, but I suspect he will only pick up maybe 60 delegates tomorrow. Marco Rubio and his 163 delegates are dangerously close to being out of the race, and may go up only negligibly tomorrow night. I do expect John Kasich to pick up about 75 delegates tomorrow, almost all of them coming from Ohio, which is a decent addition to his 63 he has right now. After tomorrow, I suspect Trump will have about 670 delegates, Cruz about 430, Rubio about 165, and Kasich 138. Trump will possess slightly less than half of the current delegate count, but will have basically the only pathway forward.

Yes, Trump's Campaign is Scary- Blame Republicans

Friday night was a rather significant night in American politics. A Donald Trump rally was shut down by violence in Chicago. An anti-Trump contingent showed up at his rally at the University of Illinois at Chicago, and their presence caused the pro-Trump crowd to react to them, ultimately leading to violence, and the postponement of the event. Clearly, Mr. Trump has struck a nerve on both sides of the political divide. Clearly his divisive rhetoric has awakened a reactionary force against him.

Let's stop pretending that Trump's rise came out of nowhere. For eight years we've listened to the Republican Party create the atmosphere that gives us Donald. They refused at the leadership level to disavow the "birther" movement that said President Obama was not born in America. They refused to disavow calls that President Obama was a Muslim. They put up candidates who were not serious for high office, beginning with the rise of Sarah Palin as a potential Vice-President. They refused to work with this President on absolutely anything at all. The combination of all of this is what gets us to this point.

What we saw in Chicago on Friday is scary stuff, as was previous violence at Trump events. It wasn't random. It probably isn't the end with this guy. The atmosphere that this can happen in doesn't happen over night, and needed time to develop. The GOP allowed this type of situation to be possible. Now they are acting shocked that a Trump can happen.

I Won as Many Republican Delegates Last Night as Establishment Favorite, Little Marco Rubio

5.1%, 9.3%, 15.9%, and 13.1%. Those are Marco Rubio's totals from Mississippi, Michigan, Idaho, and Hawaii last night. He won zero (0) delegates to the Republican National Convention last night. Despite literally all of the establishment support, despite a party who's professional class has done all but force him on the Republican voters, Marco Rubio has no support. People won't vote for him. Oh sure, I still have Republican staffer friends who tell me how well he does in polls against Hillary Clinton, but frankly I'm not impressed by polls of hypothetical match-ups. Marco can't connect with voters. He can't reach people who live in the real world. He's a bad candidate.

He's a bad candidate who's career is about to get blown up in his home state. Donald Trump is beating him badly in his home state of Florida. Marco has to win Florida to save face, let alone win the nomination. If he stays in and wins, even this pipe dream about him running for Florida Governor in 2018 is badly wounded. If he drops out now, with all the early voting that has happened in his state, he will be further injured beyond his record of not showing up for work in the U.S. Senate on the behalf of Floridians. In short, Marco is damned if he does, and more damned if he doesn't.

Just another day in the campaign of Little Marco Rubio.

There is Not, and Was Not, a Moderate Republican Establishment

This is a really interesting read about the intellectual breakdown of the Republican Party from a de-regulatory, pro-business 1920s political party, to today's mess. Just read this part though:

FDR’s continued popularity made many Republicans recognize that the party would die if it did not bow to the reality that Americans wanted activist government of some kind. One branch of the party, led by New York governor Thomas E. Dewey, accepted that reality, although its members wanted more freedom for business. But a reactionary faction, led by Ohio Senator Robert A. Taft, insisted that the New Deal was un-American. The Republicans must not, they said, become a “Me-Too” party. When WWII ended, Taft’s faction joined with wealthy southern Democrats who hated the New Deal’s civil rights policies to try to roll back FDR’s legacy.

This split between the Taft Republicans and the moderates became a war when moderates from New York and New England helped General Dwight D. Eisenhower win the 1952 Republican nomination. The convention included fistfights. Taft loyalists insisted that the nomination rightly belonged to Senator Taft, and they never forgave Eisenhower for stealing it. They condemned the “Eastern Establishment” that had secured Eisenhower’s nomination. Those people were apostates, polluting the pro-business principles of the true Republican Party.

When Eisenhower developed his own version of the New Deal, Taft Republicans exploded. Eisenhower based what he called the Middle Way on the idea that “if a job has to be done to meet the needs of the people, and no one else can do it, then it is the proper function of the federal government.” Although he trimmed business regulation, he kept the upper income tax bracket at 91% and backed a national healthcare system (although he could not get it through Congress). He also supported the largest public works program in American history: the 1956 Federal-Aid Highway Act constructed 41,000 miles of interstate highways. The economy boomed in the Eisenhower years, and Americans liked Ike and loved the Middle Way.

Now, obviously Senator Taft and Senator Cruz have a lot in common, but get past that for a moment. Name me the national Republican who was willing to adopt any of the Eisenhower-wing's policies? There isn't one. This is the fascinating part of the Republican split though in 2016- there is just movement conservatives, more extreme movement conservatives, and Trump. The only thing kind of "different" is Trump, because he's embracing white nationalism in such an overt way. I stress the word "overtly" though, because racism isn't new in the GOP:

Movement Conservatives fought to take control of the party from moderate Republicans. Movement Conservatives stood firmly against taxes and government activism, but they built their power by adding racism to their anti-government crusade. They argued that tax dollars redistributed wealth from hardworking white people to undeserving people of color and women. This argument proved a winner when Movement Conservative Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater’s only five states in 1964–aside from his home state—were in the Deep South. In 1968, Nixon captured Goldwater voters by adopting the Southern Strategy to assure white southerners that the days of federal enforcement of civil rights were ending. In 1980, Reagan began his general election campaign in Philadelphia, Mississippi, where three civil rights workers had been murdered during Freedom Summer, and told the crowd, “I believe in states’ rights.” The message was unmistakable. He also used the image of the “Welfare Queen,” a black woman who stole tax dollars by making fraudulent welfare claims, in winning the presidency.

Let's be clear here- no Republican is embracing government activism, possible taxes, or diversity in their program. There is no "moderate" Republican in national politics. Even the Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan ticket embraced the language of "makers and takers," a more subdued version of conservative rhetoric. Don't give them the benefit of splitting the Republicans off into camps- it's not like Rubio is substantially different than Cruz on policy. It's not like either isn't similar to Trump on world view.

The GOP Gets What it Deserves With Trump

It was the late 1990s, and the Gingrich "revolution" had crashed and burned. Bill Clinton had been re-elected, the economy was booming, the budget was balanced, and the impeachment proceedings regarding the Monica Lewinsky scandal had failed. Faced with running against President Clinton's record, the GOP turned to Texas Governor George W. Bush, a folksy village-idiot type on the outside, but a man who had turned Texas from blue to red in one-and-a-half terms. Bush managed to win the election saying things like "I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully," and it got no better from there. Bush would win two terms as President on a platform of "gay-baiting," denying science in both the cases of climate change and stem-cell research, protecting "guns on demand," hyper-nationalism and war-mongering, and giving big business their way, all the while. If the Bush-Cheney years had been the low point of the Republican Party's existence, that would have been terrible. The Iraq War is one of the great atrocities of our time, and they left in the midst of a full-throttle economic crash. I won't even get into their record of taking the Clinton surpluses and turning them into the deep debt we suffered from for years after they left. They were no shining moment in our history.

Unfortunately, the GOP since then has become a complete embarrassment to our country. You cannot start the story at Donald Trump, or even at Sarah Palin, because Bush's brand of anti-intellectualism really did set the stage for this behavior. You can't get to someone as utterly incompetent and unprepared as Sarah Palin without first having the "aw shucks" Presidency of Dubbya. What's happened since then is sad, pathetic, and beneath the party that has been the past home of Bob Dole, Jack Kemp, George H.W. Bush, Dwight Eisenhower, and all the way back to Abraham Lincoln. What they've become does no service to a great nation today.

The supposed elders of the GOP are responsible for Trump's rise. John McCain did many great things for America in his life, but he thrusted a complete incompetent on this country when he selected Sarah Palin as his running-mate. Former Speaker John Boehner and current Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell sat by silently as Donald Trump stoked the "birther" movement during President Obama's first term, and now act perplexed at how he became their standard-bearer. Speaker Paul Ryan and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy recruited and fund-raised for the Tea Party class of 2010 when they ran for Congress, and then wonder why that group shuts down even basic action in that body, and follows the lead of Ted Cruz. The leadership of the Republican Party was simply so afraid after President Obama's "movement" steamrolled them in the 2008 election that they got in bed with the angry, the stupid, and the freakish elements of their political party to preserve relevance and power. It is actually fairly ironic and satisfying to see that past Tea Party darlings like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio just aren't able to give extreme enough rhetoric to the Trump crowd now. It tells us all so much about where the Grand Ole' Party is going.

By the way, while I'm on it, I can't state enough times that Rubio and Cruz should not be treated as some sort of upgrade on the insanity that is Donald Trump. Sure, they don't have actual Ku Klux Klanmen at their rallies, that we know of, but there is not much policy difference with Donald Trump, except for the few issues where he is to their left. In any normal election, we would be referring to these men as absolute extremists. Cruz is amongst the most evil of political actors I've seen in many years in Washington, once accusing Vietnam Veteran and former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel of being corrupted by foreign governments during his confirmation hearings as Defense Secretary. Marco Rubio is an incapable man, one who I could say many bad things about, but also one who has been completely bought and sold by donors.  The evil one and the stupid one are terrible in their own right, and are creations of the runaway Republican movement, but we are relegating them to back-burner status because we have a guy actually getting endorsed by white supremacists. These guys are actually worse on policy issues, believe it or not, but they are a little less openly offensive than a white-nationalist campaign, so we are treating them like they are the good guys here.

Let's be perfectly clear here- i'm glad that an increasing number of Republicans are joining with what Democrats have largely been saying about Donald Trump for a while now- this man is unacceptable. We cannot elect a President who's brand of xenophobia is attracting the true bottom or the barrel of American society, actual white supremacists. We cannot elect a President who scapegoats whole religions, calls for us to erect walls with our neighbors, spews sexism, and calls Mexicans "rapists and drug dealers." Donald Trump is offensive and wrong on just about every level. I do not want this man to ever be my President, not even for a day.

In the end, Republicans have to come to grips with a reality- they created Donald Trump. They didn't shut down the birthers, those who accused the President of being a Muslim, the talk of "taking our country back," or those who espoused crazy conspiracy theories about the President being a power-hungry dictator. It was not enough to say they disagreed with President Obama, they had to take it to the next level to energize this breed of person. Once you energize them, it's hard to stuff them back in the box. Both parties have to deal with the consequences of their rhetoric, and Republicans have to face the fact that the anger they stoked for years created this mess. Telling people an ignoramus like Sarah Palin is qualified for the Vice-Presidency, then turning her loose with all of her vitriol on American politics is bound to only lead to an even crazier byproduct. We got that in a Congress that won't do basic things now, and want to investigate all kinds of crazy conspiracies. That ultimately lead us to this. The Republican Party told their voters it was okay to be ignorant, it was okay to be angry, and it was even okay to lash out. Well, here we are. I hope you like it.

Donald is Winning

Last night's Republican primaries and caucuses were rather interesting. On the one hand, Donald Trump won big. He won Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas. He has a solid lead in the delegate math. There is no way this man can lose before the convention now. He's starting to pick up some endorsements, and even the most childish attacks from Marco Rubio did not work.

With that said, it's fair to say the Republican Party is not ready to go quietly. Ted Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma, and most importantly, Texas last night. Marco Rubio won Minnesota, which actually may help Trump by complicating the anointing of his main opponent. Even so, the rejection of Trump by four states is a reminder that not everyone on the right has bought in.

Within the Republican establishment, the complete freak out over Trump is in full bloom.

As usual, Trump’s words contained more than a grain of indisputable truth. But it’s his other words—the schoolyard insults and crude New York City vernacular that masks a lack of knowledge about policy, the xenophobic dog whistles so loud they sound like a bark, the attacks on Republican elders, moderation on Planned Parenthood, even neutrality in the Israel-Palestine conflict—that so many Republicans cannot abide. As they dig in against his candidacy, they are girding for a civil war not, they insist, in order to cling to power over the party but to save the ideas and principles that have always held it together.

It is a war the GOP as we know it may not survive, “a big and strong fight going on about the future of the Republican Party as intense as we’ve ever seen,” said Pete Wehner, a veteran of the George W. Bush White House who has savaged Trump of late. “A Trump victory would be catastrophic to the Republican Party and a terrible danger to the republic itself. If he wins the presidency, you may see the efforts to form a new party.”

Even so, they are freaking out too late. They will have to rip this nomination out of the hands of the Trump supporters, something that would doom their electoral hopes this year. Assuming they're even trying that in three months, they may not succeed. All of this is a pipe-dream.

Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee, and frankly that's not really any worse than Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Yes, he underperformed last night, but he still came out way ahead. Donald Trump is on his way to the Republican nomination. Reality is being mean to the GOP.