A Democratic Super Tuesday II Primer

In case you missed it, Bernie Sanders shocked Hillary Clinton last Tuesday and roared back from 20% down to win Michigan. The political world was shocked, and has no explanation for what happened. Sanders seemed to use international trade agreements as his wedge-issue of choice in Michigan. They are hoping they can keep that up this week.

Here's a little reality though- Clinton gained delegates that night, thanks to her Mississippi blowout win, and she needs just 1,152 more to win. Her current lead of 1,231-576 is commanding, and she is on pace to win. Even so, there are real concerns about her after the loss, and she needs to right the ship.

The big prize tomorrow is Florida. With 214 delegates, Florida is considered prime Clinton real-estate at this point. She holds leads in the 20s and 30s of points, and seems destined to win in a state with a lot of minority voters. Expect Clinton to win huge here.

Ohio is one of the battlegrounds of the night. Will it behave like Michigan? Clinton generally is holding single-digit leads in polling here, but they are definitely nervous about this state after last Tuesday in neighboring Michigan. I suspect the 143 delegates here will be fairly evenly split.

Illinois is another battleground type of state. Polls show this state is nearly a tie, with Sanders holding an edge in one of the last three polls, and Clinton holding two. Given how close this is, expect the 156 delegates to be very evenly split.

Missouri is the third battleground of the night. The 71 delegates here are proportional, as the other contests are, and will probably be split close to even. There are two polls, both showing the state as very close right now. Eight years ago, Clinton narrowly lost this state. This time, she'll be the one favored to win in the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas though, so her ability to turn out the vote will decide this race.

Finally, there is North Carolina, which like Florida, is considered solidly for Clinton. She should win this state by close to or more than 20%, and add onto her delegate-rich count. With 107 delegates, expect Clinton to run a solid margin here.

I expect Hillary Clinton to win the delegate count tomorrow night, even if she only wins two states. Margins are everything in this process, and she will win the two solid margins. Being charitable to Senator Sanders, I expect Clinton to win around 400 delegates tomorrow. That should put her in the 1,625-1,650 range moving forward. That would put Sanders in the 290 delegate range for the night. He would have around 850-900 after the night. This keeps the race in it's current status-quo.