Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Battleground Super Tuesday: Virginia

For the most part, the "Beltway" crowd is excluded from most of the Presidential Primary process. They are kept in their bubble, far from the real people voting, and engage in theoretical conversation. Today though, that trend breaks in Virginia. In Old Dominion, a competitive primary has broken out, and a lot of delegates will be at stake today.

The Democrats
I would expect Hillary Clinton to win here today, the only pause I have is by how much? In Northern Virginia, the race could be very competitive tonight. In Richmond and down along the southeast corner, I expect Clinton to win big. The question is whether or not Sanders can pull out down-scale working-class people to vote for him. While I don't expect much of that, this doesn't mean that he can't compete, but he'll have to win NOVA for that to happen.

The Republicans
Basically everyone predicts a Trump win tonight. Can the voters in NOVA stop him? We know that the down-state crowd is likely to push for Trump, the way they kicked out Eric Cantor. Expect Trump to dominate outside of NOVA, and Rubio and Cruz to fight for the remaining scraps.

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