Thoughts on Iowa

It's over. The Iowa Caucus is over. The results are in, we know who won, and we know who won. The first votes were cast in the race to be the 45th President of the United States. The caucus-goers are the first real signs we have of who has the momentum in this race.

First off, for lack of any other way to put it, the Democratic race was a tie. Hillary Clinton currently has 699 delegate-equivalencies to the state convention, while Bernie Sanders has 695. Given that there are eight Martin O'Malley delegates won last night, it is fair to say that no one will know who won Iowa until those folks select which side they want to go to. I do know that people are disputing how we should count this race, but there's not many ways to slice a race this close.

The Republican race was shocking. Donald Trump turned out the second most caucus-goers in Republican history. He lost. I would not have predicted that. Ted Cruz had an incredible organization, and shocked even me. Marco Rubio also shocked me, not by finishing third, but by finishing so close to Trump.

Here's my winners from last night:

1. Bernie Sanders- No, he didn't really win. He also isn't Howard Dean. While there was a quiet thought that this man might be a flop once real voting happened, he showed us that his campaign is real. His speech felt like the "victory" speech on the Democratic side, and he showed that he can turn out the kids, the newcomers to the process, and the more progressive base. He has a big lead in New Hampshire, and it's fair to say that last night should not change that. While he didn't get the decisive victory that would change the race over night, his position is no worse than it was.
2. Hillary Clinton- If the results hold, she will be the first Clinton to win Iowa. She will also be the first woman to ever win Iowa. She avoided a repeat of 2008, which was really the bar to clear. She is in a good position to win the nomination, and last night didn't change that.
3. Ted Cruz- I mean, he won the Iowa Caucus. He got the most votes in the history of the event too. His base of Evangelicals and arch-conservatives won the night. 
4. Marco Rubio- He's one step closer to being the "establishment" Republican. He's going to take some serious fire in New Hampshire now, but I'd rather be in his position than anyone else's.

I was almost tempted to put Donald Trump in here for handling the loss with modesty, but I'll pass for now. The night is a loss for Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Rand Paul, and Christ Christie. All of them did considerably more poor than I thought. 

On to New Hampshire!