First Look- the 2016 Phillies and IronPigs Roster Projections 2/21

Believe it or not, this has the potential to be the most fun Spring Training any of us have ever seen as Phillies' fans. No, this is not a World Series team, though I'd agree with the notion that we're not "tanking." No matter that we're not going to be good, Spring Training isn't about being good anyway, no real games are played. This camp has the potential to be entertaining because of all the other things that are going on, and how they could play into the future of this team.

First off, look at all the players the Phillies brought to camp. There aren't enough mounds for all of these pitchers, and in the end there are only 40 spots on the 40-man roster and 25 spots on the Opening Day roster. People are fighting for jobs in this camp, which is much more exciting than camp was in 2011, per se, when we knew most of the team from the jump. Then there's the matter of who is in camp this year. Crawford, Quinn, Thompson, Williams, Appel- some of the names we're being sold as our future. They're all in camp, and maybe they have no shot at making the team, but they are here. We can see them. It's fun.

The Phillies have 36 pitchers in camp, and maybe 12 jobs to hand out (Harrison is not in camp). They have seven catchers in camp, and two jobs to hand out. They have 13 infielders in camp, and six or seven jobs at the most to hand out. They have eight outfielders in camp, and at most five jobs. All in all, there are 64 players in camp, and only 25 opening day spots, 40 roster spots, and 25 AAA spots for them. This camp will be competitive.

So who makes the team? Let's start by saying who won't. Despite being in camp, I don't see the Phillies actually considering the following for spots on the 25 man roster:

• Outfielders- Nick Williams, Roman Quinn*, David Lough
• Infielders- J.P. Crawford, Brock Stassi, Angelys Nina, Ryan Jackson
• Catchers- Andrew Knapp, Jorge Alfaro*, Gabriel Lino, Logan Moore
• Pitchers- Jake Thompson, Reinier Roibal, Edubray Ramos*, Colton Murray*, Yoervis Medina, Chris LeRoux, Bobby LaFromboise, Gregory Infante, Frank Herrmann, Zach Eflin, Greg Burke, Mark Appel, Jimmy Cordero*

Right there, we've taken 64 down to 40. I've noted the five guys on the 40 man roster who I sent down to start, all of whom are in no danger of losing their spots right now. With the remaining 40 players in camp, there are 25 jobs, some of which are basically locks right now. I see them as:

• Pitching- Aaron Nola, Jeremy Hellickson, Jerad Eickhoff, and Charlie Morton are rotation locks, if they are all healthy on Opening Day. Brett Oberholtzer had a good year last year, and they just got him, so I doubt they will put him through waivers (he's out of options), so lock him in as either the lefty-long man or the fifth starter. I don't think Luis Garcia, Elvis Araujo, Jeanmar Gomez, or David Hernandez, all now major league veterans, are in danger of not making the bullpen. If there are twelve pitching spots, consider nine of them filled.
• Catching- I'd be surprised if Carlos Ruiz and Cameron Rupp aren't basically locks. J.P. Arencibia should be given consideration, but he's not currently on the 40 man roster.
• Infielders- Maikel Franco is the biggest lock on the team, and you can basically put Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez as highly likely to be locks too. While I don't think everything is completely settled at first base, Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf are probably going to platoon. Andres Blanco seems set to be the utility man. That leaves one more spot, at most.
• Outfielders- Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr appear set to start. I would be very surprised if Peter Bourjos and Cody Asche don't make this team easy, though they are basically battling to be the third starter in this outfield. Tyler Goeddel would seem heavily favored to also win a spot, which would basically close out the roster, though I think he has to show something in camp.

So, with that 21 of the 25 spots are absolutely set, if not 22. That leaves only a few real battles-

• Fifth starting spot- Vincent Velasquez seems to be the favorite for me. If he has a good camp, the spot is his. Oberholtzer seems to be the top other challenger. Adam Morgan and Alec Asher have a shot coming to camp, but it would be tougher for them to win. David Buchanan and Severino Gonzalez are in camp with 40 man spots, but both are probably pitching to keep that spot, not take a 25 man.
• Two to three bullpen spots- This will be crowded. Mario Hollands returns after missing 2015 after Tommy John surgery, and appears to be the favorite amongst the lefties to win a spot. Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf has to make the team to stay in the organization, and he would appear to be a top challenger for Hollands. James Russell is in camp as a non-roster invitee, and also could challenge for a lefty spot. Non-roster righty former closers Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri, and Andrew Bailey come to camp with a chance to not only win a righty spot, but also end up as the closer. Dalier Hinojosa pitched well last year for the big league club, and he comes to camp with a shot to make it too, as you could also say for Hector Neris. Michael Mariot is also in camp with a shot at the two spots. I believe there will only really be two spots open, and I assume the Phillies will pick one lefty and one righty amongst this group, so I give the early edge to Hollands and Mujica, who I'm also predicting will close here.
• Final bench spot- I basically assume Goeddel is set to win this spot, but he will face a challenge from Darnell Sweeney, Taylor Featherston, and non-roster invitee Emmanuel Burriss. Ultimately, the Phillies keep five outfielders instead of seven infielders. 

With this all said, the Phillies also have a AAA team to pick. The Ironpigs will be a lot of fun to watch this year, with so much talent passing through. Right now, I see that roster looking like:

• Starting Rotation- Adam Morgan, Alec Asher, Mark Appel, Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin
• Bullpen- Dalier Hinojosa, Hector Neris, Michael Mariot, James Russell, Colton Murray, Chris LeRoux, Ken Roberts
• Outfielders- Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, David Lough, Cam Perkins
• Infielders- Brock Stassi, Darnell Sweeney, Angelys Nina, Taylor Featherston, Tommy Joseph, Ryan Jackson
• Catchers- Andrew Knapp, Gabriel Lino, Jake Fox

I do see Crawford starting out in AA, which I know will disappoint many people. I also don't really see room for a number of players on the 40 man roster. I see David Buchanan and Severino Gonzalez being in real danger to win spots here. I believe this roster, on the whole, will be constantly changing.

It's important to remember this is just my first crack at this. Injuries, contract clauses, and roster spots will still change this. The minor league rosters are almost impossible to pick, as there are many factors beyond baseball talent to factor in. Even the Major League roster will inevitably change a lot over the course of the camp. It will be a lot more fun to watch than in years past, as a real competition is underway in Clearwater.