The New Hampshire Republican Party Prediction

It's time for the New Hampshire Republican Primary, a crucial test in the fight for the GOP nomination. For the candidates in the "pile up" for second, tonight is make or break. They may be separated by only a few points, but who's in second and who's in fifth will matter a lot.

First off, Donald Trump will win by a 10% or more margin. That's the easy part. After that, New Hampshire has been a back and forth battle between Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Kasich, and Bush. With the exception of Cruz, anyone else who finishes sixth place is finished. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina will not be big factors tonight, in the back of the field.

Coming out of Iowa, Rubio had all the momentum, but he bombed the debate very badly the other night. Usually I'd dismiss that as inside ball, but New Hampshire has a history of debates turning the tide. Reagan in 1980 and Clinton in 2008 stand out to me. I do think this will change the ball game tonight. The question is really whether or not Christie will benefit from tanking Rubio. I think that is an open question. Kasich and Bush feel like they are on the rise to me.

Trump will come in around 30% tonight. I believe Kasich will come in around 17% tonight and Jeb Bush will surprise us all at 15%. Christie and Rubio will both come in at 11%, with Christie edging out Rubio. Cruz will come in around 9%. Fiorina, Carson, and other names on the ballot will fill out the rest.