Republicans
I don't know that anyone expects Donald Trump to lose here. Suffolk University suggests that Trump has a 23% lead in the state, beating Rubio 43-20%. Rubio's biggest problem is that John Kasich is actually getting some support, at 17%. On the flip side, one could argue that Trump would pick up the 9% supporting Cruz or the 4% supporting Carson if they dropped out.
The Republican vote is most concentrated in the Boston suburbs, particularly south of the city where Mitt Romney did his best in the 2012 election. Trump will have some success amongst the working class white population in this state, certainly enough to win a convincing victory tomorrow. Expect him to win by double-digits in this state.
Democrats
This could be one of the hardest states to call in this election. Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton road the working-class white vote in this state to victory. Eight years later, that appears to be more fertile ground for Bernie Sanders. Sanders should do very well in the western part of the state, some of the more liberal enclaves in the state. Clinton enjoys the support of most of the Boston political machine, but her lower performance amongst the blue-collar white voters this time might prevent her from maximizing her performance in that region.
Even with so many factors pointing towards a potential Bernie win here, WMUR shows Clinton ahead 49-44, and Emerson shows the race as a tie. This may come down to regional turnout. If it's high in the western end of the state, Bernie may get it done. If not, this is moving away from him right now.
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