Sunday, February 28, 2016

Battleground Super Tuesday: Vermont

Tuesday is Super Tuesday, and Vermont will be one of the states voting. On the Democratic side, it is probably the safest pro-Sanders state on the calendar. On the Republican side, expectations hold that this is a Trump state. Here's my breakdown.

Democrats
This is Bernie Sanders' home state, and if he loses it, I'd be shocked. It is one of the most liberal states in the country, as Barack Obama won every county in the state, and 66.57% of the vote in the 2012 election. In addition to electing Bernie to the Senate, the state also has elected Howard Dean and Pat Leahy to statewide offices. Every county but one gave President Obama over 60% of the vote in 2012. Every county is pretty white. This makes this primary an anomaly on Super Tuesday.

There is only one Congressional District, and Bernie will probably win it easily. The only question is whether his win looks like his New Hampshire win, or Clinton's South Carolina win. My sense is that there's not a whole lot of regionalism to dig through here- Sanders should win across the board.

Republicans
No one expects anything but a Donald Trump win. Based on his huge win in New Hampshire, that seems to make sense. This state is again a very white state for Republicans too, and they are best described as the libertarian breed. Gun rights are a big issue here, and there are some weird types that may come out to vote in this.

Trump is most likely to win across the board here. He is also likely to only be in the 30's here, not close to 50%. That leaves the door at least partially open to an upset. If it happens, it's because the Romney voters that gave him a win with 39% in 2012's primary move over to Marco Rubio or John Kasich. I don't see any way for Ted Cruz or Ben Carson to appeal here. The fact that no one but Trump has lead a New England poll this year in a GOP Primary tells me though that Donald should win easily.

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