Sunday, February 28, 2016

Donald Trump is About to Destroy the Republican Establishment for Good on Tuesday

Donald Trump is winning in the race for the Republican nomination, and the only way the GOP can stop him is to pray for miracles at this point. He's winning, by a lot. He won "yyyyuuuugggggeee" in New Hampshire, won comfortably in South Carolina (and won every delegate), and crushed everyone in Nevada. He's picking up actual endorsements now, from people like Chris Christie and Jan Brewer, and he has big leads in Tuesday's Super Tuesday polls. We're less than 60 hours from Donald Trump possibly destroying the Republican establishment for good.

There's a small chance that Trump sweeps Tuesday. Even if he doesn't, he is likely to win the majority of the states, and the lion's share of the delegates. He may beat Ted Cruz in his native Texas, and he will likely beat Marco Rubio in his neighboring states of Georgia and Alabama. Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia will cast their votes in the Republican contest this week, and only really a few of them are even competitive in the polls. Georgia, Texas, and Virginia could be competitive, but many states like Alabama are already set to be blowouts.

After Trump has a big day on Tuesday, the GOP's establishment, professional wing will be left with tough choices. They will almost certainly have to unite behind one of Rubio, Cruz, or Kasich in order to even force him into a brokered convention, and even if they somehow get to that point, just forcing all the non-Trump delegates to back whoever the power's that be pick is going to be troublesome, and probably cause an ugly division in the Republican Party. By my estimation, they are running out of acceptable ways to block this man from winning the nomination, and that's even assuming they can get themselves together enough to pick a person to do it with.

Given the toxic brand of politics that Trump carries with him, and the complete wild card of how that will play electorally, the GOP's "elite" may be forced to ponder a different path forward- abandonment. They might have to simply not do anything to help their nominee, or else face being associated with him. There is, of course, a non-zero chance that Trump's politics will work in November and elect him President. I'd like to believe America is a better, smarter, more decent place than that, but that's just me. Even if that happens though, does the GOP want to attach their lot in Congress to banning Muslims and building walls along the Mexican border? Maybe they do- but I suggest they don't. Which leads them to the unthinkable- punting away a Presidential Election against Hillary Clinton. I think it is tactically the right thing to do, but my guess is that the GOP will fold to their base, and go along with Trump. If that happens, you are officially watching the death of anything resembling a "GOP Establishment."

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