Bernie's Best, Last Chance

Bernie Sanders has run a fantastic campaign. Last night he won a landslide. He's closing the gap nationally, and he's winning big amongst some demographic groups. By all rights, Bernie seems to have the momentum. He's running well.

He's on his last chance.

You see, the calendar favors Hillary Clinton. We can argue over whether or not that was intentional, but the reality is that the next couple weeks favor her. On February 20th and 26th are the Nevada Caucus and South Carolina Primary, events that are less filled with white liberals, and more filled white moderates, Latinos, and African-Americans. After that is Super Tuesday, this year an event filled with Southern primaries, especially rich in African-American voters. Bernie Sanders has trailed badly amongst all of the groups of voters in the states coming up, through most of the process. You can argue that Nevada does give him some openings (a heavy labor presence, voters who want to talk economics), but he is not going to be favored in any of the states that come up between now and early March. He will have to survive a few beatings, if nothing changes, and then hope that he can continue to win blue-collar whites in states after that.

Bernie's momentum is not insignificant after a couple of good weeks, but he'll have to capitalize now. By winning such an amazing landslide in New Hampshire, Bernie will get another look from voters who have not yet bought in, helped by media attention like his appearance on Colbert and SNL in the last few days. He will have to convince people in Nevada and South Carolina particularly that he is a viable option after his victory, and perform better than expected, if he wants to keep his momentum into Super Tuesday and beyond.

Obviously, Bernie always was going to have issues with the super-delegates, or "party leaders," as he was not a member of the party officially until recently, but the calendar does not favor his electorate against Clinton's. To the extent that New Hampshire matters, it will be because he does or does not close the gaps with demographics that do not currently support him. If he doesn't use this opportunity in front of him now, the race could be over fast.