The Democratic Race: Hillary in Control

There are two competing narratives after Nevada's Caucus. One is that Bernie Sanders has done a lot better than expected. The other is that Hillary is in great shape to win the nomination, and is considerably better off than she was in 2008. The first one has some truth to it, though it was inevitable that someone would rise as Hillary's chief challenger. The second is completely true, and yesterday was the key to coming to that conclusion.

Bernie Sanders has run a great campaign and defied all expectations I had of him. I thought initially that we would be talking about Martin O'Malley, and not Bernie, as the top challenger now. Bernie seemed like he was selling something the country wasn't ready for. Here we are now, and the man won New Hampshire and did very well in Iowa and Nevada. There is no doubt he is a voice to be heard now.

The problem for Bernie is that he's had two opportunities for a win that would change the race, and Hillary has survived, twice. In Iowa, Bernie winning would have meant a likely sweep of the first two states, and a possible political tidal wave that blew her campaign over. Whether you say he tied or lost, he didn't get the momentum that he needed out of there. Yesterday in Nevada was a second chance for him. He had just won a huge victory in New Hampshire, and now he was in another caucus state, one with great diversity too, in a race that was very close. Perhaps the worst thing that happened to Bernie Sanders last week was close polling, because the expectations rose up on him. He had a shot to win it, but she won Nevada. Had he won yesterday, perhaps his momentum would have closed the gap in South Carolina, and given him more momentum into Super Tuesday. Now he didn't win though, and the momentum is stopped.

This leaves us with a race where the door is open for a Hillary tsunami to effectively end this race. She managed to reverse her crushing 2008 loss in Iowa, and is likely to do the same next Saturday in South Carolina. She may win the Palmetto State by a large margin, and will be expected to win by double digits now. If she does that, she will have won three of the first four, going into Super Tuesday, where the map favors her. She could open up a sizable delegate lead in early March, and essentially be on her way to the nomination. The pressure was on her to hold on in Nevada and Iowa, and she did that, and now the pressure is on Sanders to survive in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday. Clinton is now the one hunting down the nomination, and has a clear pathway to do it.

Yesterday's win was a very big win for Hillary. I have no doubt that Bernie Sanders has the support, money, and staff to run this race until June. I also have no doubt though that right now it doesn't appear he can quite get over the top in this race. Yesterday's six point win has changed the entire narrative for Hillary, both in spin and reality. She's in good shape to be the nominee.