The New Hampshire Republican Primer

Photo by Connor Corpora

Ted Cruz won Iowa. I'd be very surprised if he wins New Hampshire too. He ran a great race there, but the Granite State is far less Evangelical, and far more secular. The formula is very different.

The current state of the New Hampshire Republican Primary is very different than Iowa was. Donald Trump holds a fairly large lead, right now. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush were all hanging around in a close race for second. Obviously Iowa isn't going to decide New Hampshire, but it does re-set the race.

• Donald Trump now gets to show us if he can take a punch. His lead is solid enough that he should be able to win. If he melts down from losing Iowa though, he could lose.
• Marco Rubio now has an opening to a strong showing. If he can pull in Kasich, Christie, and Bush people in New Hampshire, he could possibly win. He has the momentum.
• Ted Cruz will be fascinating to watch. I don't see his strategy to win. I do see his momentum from a huge victory. 
• So much for the "Republican Comeback Team." The Governors bombed Iowa. Will they bomb New Hampshire too? Kasich didn't do great last night, but he did much better than Christie. Technically, Bush beat both, though it doesn't feel like it. All of them could be finished in New Hampshire. No way they all survive.
• Rand Paul did not do so well in Iowa. Can he do better in New Hampshire? If not, it might be time to get out. Same for Carly Fiorina. Rick Santorum will be a non-factor here. Ben Carson doesn't appear interested in contesting the Granite State.