Battleground Super Tuesday: Oklahoma

Oklahoma rarely gets much attention outside of the American right-wing, in part because it's possibly the most conservative state in the union. President Obama never won a county in the state, much less was competitive. The state is normally dark red, but tomorrow, it's highly competitive.

Republicans
This is one of the few spots that could trip up Donald Trump tomorrow, but he does hold a clear lead. The whole state is solidly Republican, so it's not a primary that will be highly "regionalized" in any way. Ted Cruz is from neighboring Texas, but it seems as though Rubio and him have split the anti-Trump vote up enough to allow him a double-digit victory, even in the low to mid 30's. Expect Trump to win.

Democrats
This is the state by which we will probably end up judging Bernie Sanders performance tomorrow. Monmouth puts him ahead in the last poll out, and he's been working this state hard on the ground, and on the airwaves. Clinton did win big in 2008 here, but this election has shown a reversal of electorates, and this is a very white electorate on the whole here. Clinton will need big numbers out of Oklahoma City and a few other enclaves of diversity, while Sanders needs it out of the college campuses.