Bernie Sanders is trying to shock the political world. If he wins the Iowa Caucus, he will set himself up to sweep the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to start the process, and take his "political revolution" national. He started this process down by a 61-5% margin in the state, and now is within just a couple of points in most polls. Many find this pretty unbelievable, even unprecedented. It is unbelievable. It is not unprecedented.
Whether you call them "movements," anti-establishment, underdogs, or just "more liberal," candidates like Bernie Sanders have existed in the past. President Obama somewhat fit that mold in 2008, though history now shows us that he was much more "mainstream" and moderate than perhaps he was cast in 2008. Howard Dean was certainly this candidate in 2004, as was Bill Bradley in 2000. Go back further and you find Eugene McCarthy or George McGovern. In case you're noticing this, most of these candidates didn't win, besides President Obama. In other words, this isn't easy to do.
Furthermore standing in Bernie's way is the current condition- Democrats hold the White House. It's not really a "change" election, let alone a revolution, to Democrats who will vote in this process. Bernie has made his differences with the President, particularly on banking and health care, front and center in this race. Is it doable? I'd suggest it's pretty hard to be the "change" guy against the President with 90% approval in the caucus.
Iowa does have a way of bringing surprises out, and that could happen tonight. It's not as likely as a Clinton victory though. If Sanders wins tonight, it's pretty much a huge upset. History tells us that tonight, if Sanders does well, that is a very big deal.
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