Sunday, February 21, 2016

#GOPSC Re-Cap: Republicans in Denial

There are three main stories that come out of yesterday's South Carolina Republican Primary:

  1. Donald Trump is dominating this race. Second in Iowa, landslide win in New Hampshire, landslide win in South Carolina. Reports say he has another double digit landslide coming in Nevada on Tuesday too. Republican operatives keep trying to will Marco Rubio to the front, and maybe it will eventually happen, but the truth is that Trump is dominating this field, and is the front-runner to be the nominee. Even if they figure out a way to get Rubio past Trump eventually, think about the lift they had to give him, celebrating second and third place finishes as true victories, to get him by a candidate who's proposing bans on Muslims, a wall with Mexico, torture, and all other sorts of crazy. Donald Trump embodies who the GOP is at this point.
  2. John Kasich and Ben Carson can stay in if they want, but this is a three way race. Ted Cruz is the candidate of the movement conservatives and religious right-wing extremists. Donald Trump represents the anti-government, outsider lane of this race, the sort of "man of the people" track. Marco Rubio is the DC Beltway, insider track candidate. Everyone else doesn't matter.
  3. Jeb Bush's decision to suspend his campaign marks the end of one of the great political dynasties of our history. No one ever thought they'd see this day. I thought up until 7 pm last night that he would pull out 15% and move on. It may take months to write the post-mortem on this one, but this truly is a historic outcome with huge implications on the future of the Republican Party. 
The GOP does not like my storylines, I'm sure. I basically see a race where over a third of their voters want someone not of their establishment ranks, someone proposing unserious ideas for our future, while the GOP establishment tries to pull a weakened Rubio across the line in front of this nut. This is not the race they thought they'd have a year ago. It's not the race they thought they'd have when Jeb Bush raised $100 million plus in his first three months in the race. This is not how they wanted things to go.

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