Front-Runners Always Run "Terrible Campaigns," and the Reasons are Obvious

Jeb Bush once raised $100 million plus in a quarter, but on Saturday he dropped out of the Republican nomination fight, a stunning fall from grace that has some people calling his campaign one of the worst ever. You could hear Democratic activists sniping at the Clinton campaign before Saturday's Nevada win, just as they did when she shockingly lost in 2008. Mitt Romney's campaign was largely panned during both the primaries and general elections of 2012, and John McCain's 2008 campaign literally imploded before he got the nomination. Go back further, and you'll read a lot of not-so-nice things about John Kerry's campaign, Bob Dole's campaign, the George H.W. Bush campaign of 1988, and others.

Why does every front-runner run a crappy campaign? Glad you asked.

Front-runner, establishment campaigns, are not creatures of the general American public. They are created out of Washington. They hire Beltway insiders, who cost a good chunk of coin, and carry big names within the industry. On the plus side, they usually bring experience, networks of people, and a winning pedigree (at least in their past). On the down side, they are expensive and are generally from the bubble that is Washington, D.C. Politics within Washington are largely interest-group driven. Issues that don't really get a lot of play in most of America get a ton of play to them. More people are engaged in politics in DC, and sometimes there is a misguided belief that this is normal amongst Washingtonians. In short, front-runners hire Washingtonians to run their campaigns, and Washingtonians, for lack of any better way to put it, aren't like the rest of Americans. They just don't connect, because their politics are different. They care about things that normal voters don't care about.

Contrast that with say, Barack Obama's 2008 campaign, which while very wonky, was very disconnected with the Beltway crowd, compared with the Clinton campaign. This is not to say that this is the only reason front-runners always run underwhelming campaigns, but it's to say that it's a clear and present reason why these things happen. While setting up outside of Washington (like say, Chicago) might seem to fix this problem, if you bring a bunch of Washingtonians to Brooklyn or Boston, they're still Washingtonians. Geography doesn't heal all wounds.