Battleground Super Tuesday: Minnesota

One of the states that both sides are citing as competitive on Super Tuesday is Minnesota. For the Republicans, any hope of stopping Trump will begin by pulling out this very close state tomorrow. For the Democrats, this is one of the few states that Senator Sanders can win. Here's my analysis.

Democrats
If this were a primary, it's likely that Hillary Clinton would win. It's a caucus though, and for that reason, Bernie has a shot. Even so, the only polling out there on this race shows Clinton with a lead between 18 and 34%. Even so, Sanders thinks the state is competitive enough that he spoke from Minnesota after the South Carolina Primary.

The bulk of President Obama's 2012 victory came out of the northeast, southeast, and Minneapolis area. Clinton is likely to do well in the Twin Cities, where she's organized well and has the support of most of the establishment. Sanders did pick up the endorsement of Congressman Ellison, which should help him in Minneapolis. Expect Clinton to win the Twin Cities though.

Sanders will need big victories along the river, in suburban areas, and in more white, liberal areas.

Republicans
This state is very close to a three-way tie. The key for Minnesota Republicans is usually in the suburbs of Minneapolis, and this year is not different. The question is whether or not Trump or his rivals come out of that region with a victory.

My guess is that we will see some similarities to Iowa in Minnesota. Evangelicals will probably vote for Cruz, but the western portion of this state will be a battleground between Cruz and Trump. Rubio will battle Trump closer in the suburban areas near the cities. Rubio has picked up several big endorsements in the state in the past week or two, and this may be his best shot to win.