Decisive Saturday is Coming

The Nevada Democratic Caucuses and the South Carolina Republican Primary are coming up next Saturday. In a year of tumult in our elections so far, this Saturday could begin to sort out the two races. A look at both:

• Nevada Democrats- The big question about Bernie Sanders has been what he would do after New Hampshire. The polls leave a big question mark here. If Bernie is to win, he may be able to withstand even losses in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday to get to April states that he can win. If she wins in Nevada, she may be able to roll to victory in March.
• South Carolina Republicans- Donald Trump should win, but the pack behind him is going to continue getting smaller. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich are all running in a pack, but there's no way all four can survive and still have a shot to win. Cruz appears to be in a solid second, while Rubio is in a more fluid third. Jeb seems to lead Kasich more often than the opposite, and I think both really need to beat the other. Rubio, Jeb, and Kasich are on the clock in the Palmetto State, and at least one or two will be done after this.

A week from now, Hillary could be cruising to the nomination, or in a complete free-fall. A week from now, there will be three Republicans still really standing, and maybe one on ice. Either way, we'll begin narrowing the field with this Saturday's results.