2015 in Review

My version of 2015 in review....

• Most Significant Person of the Year- Donald Trump. Not because I like him, agree with him, or think he'll be President, but because he completely has turned politics on it's head. He has made bigotry "okay" politically. He has turned conservatism on it's head, and exposed it's ugly core. Donald Trump is an awful man. He is the most significant man of 2015 though.
• Athlete of the Year- Tom Brady edges out Serena Williams here. By winning that fourth Super Bowl, Tom now stands out in history. He spent much of the rest of 2015 fighting off a meddling commissioner over deflated footballs. He ends 2015 as the quarterback of the best team in the AFC, again. Could he repeat?
• Best Person of the Year- Pope Francis continues to be my favorite person on the planet. His message, his breed of Catholicism, is what I always saw the religion as. His visit to Philadelphia was one of my highlights of the year.
• Upstart of the Year- Bernie Sanders. Bernie continues to surprise everyone, Hillary Clinton included, with his campaign. Just this morning he had 500 people at a small Iowa gymnasium. I don't believe he will win the Democratic nomination or the Presidency, but I do think he will now continue to play a major role in American politics.
• Sports Team of the Year- The U.S. Women's National Soccer Team. They not only won the World Cup, they crushed everyone along the way too. They are quite the interesting bunch.

Some personal highlights:

• I got elected as a Township Auditor. It's my first government job, believe it or not.
• Seeing Pope Francis in Philadelphia.
• Working a Philadelphia Mayoral. I wish we had won, but it was still an experience.
• I went to 40 pro baseball games. That was a rush.
• I started a company. That's very different.

It was a great year. Can't wait for 2016.

Bye-Bye Chip: Thank You, Jeffrey Lurie

I was never a Chip Kelly fan, so I'm not shocked about the stories coming out of the NovaCare Complex. As amazing as it is, college coaches don't have an easy transition into the NFL, even the great ones. Chip was a very confident guy, and many fans took to that confidence, however I found it to be grounded in nothing. The truth was very cold on Chip Kelly- people thought he was a great coach, because people thought he was a great coach. People thought his style would work, that it was different, that it was innovative. Today, the truth is clear.

Yes, Chip Kelly had some early successes. His team won the division in his first season, and they went 10-6 in consecutive years. He started out his NFL career 19-9, and it seemed that he had proven people like me wrong. Then the last 13 months happened. He finished 1-3 last season, and is 7-12 since last Thanksgiving. He lost three in a row to Washington, and is an OT win against a Romo-less Dallas from losing three in a row to the Cowboys. They did beat the Patriots, without Gronk, this season, but have losses against the NFC's big boys in Carolina and Arizona, got manhandled last season by the Seahawks and Packers, and took a punishing loss in his rookie season to Denver. Chip did not fare well against the NFL's elite, but he was probably mostly done-in by his personnel decisions. He famously cut DeSean Jackson, but really felt the effects of that after letting Jeremy Maclin walk. He drafted Marcus Smith and Nelson Agholor. He traded LeSean McCoy for a stiff in Kiko Alonso. He signed Byron Maxwell and DeMarco Murray to big money contracts and then misused both on the way to underachieving seasons. He kept Riley Cooper around. He cut Evan Mathis. Yeah, Miles Austin happened too. Chip wanted to push out Howie Roseman, and he did, but he made the team worse with almost every move he made. Chip the GM has a mixed record, one that spans his first 28 games, and another his final 19. Chip, the football boss of the Eagles, has a terrible record that is one-sided. As a coach, I would have considered firing him, but maybe waited a little longer. As a GM, he had to go now.

And so the story goes. Jeffrey Lurie talked to Chip, and apparently told him he wanted to take away his control over personnel. Chip refused, and was fired. It ended up being a simple choice over insubordination, or philosophical disagreement, or whatever drove Lurie. Regardless, the situation was so bad within the Eagles organization that Kelly had to be "released" from his contract with five days until the final game of the season, a meaningless game at that. Lurie decided to do the deed immediately. I couldn't support him more.

Another off-season of Chip's arrogant bluster, his "i'm smarter than you" moves, would have destroyed this team for much longer than his bad moves already have. To be clear, I expect the Eagles of 2016 to be much worse, and I'm okay with that. Coming into a new coach with the expectation of a three year rebuild is fine by me. Allowing that coach to have complete control over the draft and free agency will keep us from digging a deeper hole under a coach who was clearly overmatched running an NFL franchise. Yes, it will cost money to release Chip, but it's worth every penny. I did not want to watch him put us through another over-hyped soap-opera.

My preference is a defensive-minded NFL assistant coach. No more gimmicks, no more college guys, give me a nuts-and-bolts football coach that stresses blocking and tackling, disciplined football, and uses his players right. I had enough of the last three seasons. Enough with the drama. Let's get an NFL coach in here and start to build a real winner.

Running a Business is Different

If you are real-life friends with me, you might have heard I decided to start my own consulting business. For now, the work is mostly political in nature, and will stay as such through 2016. I've lined up a few clients for 2016 and 2017 elections, and named my company 78 Strategies.

Running a business is going to take up a lot more of my time, if for no other reason than I've never run one before. It doesn't mean I come in clueless, or wasn't doing my research before hand, but it's still a first time thing for me. If anything will trip me up, it's that. I'm excited for the opportunity though, and think this might just be the beginning of a whole new world for me.

Looking Good, or Not Long for the Road- The NFL Playoffs are Coming

Someone is going to win Super Bowl L. It might be Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, Washington, Seattle, or Minnesota. It also might be New England, Denver, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City, the New York Jets, Pittsburgh, or Indianapolis. That's the best we can know.

Going into week 17 in the NFC, I don't think the contenders should shock you. I feel the best about Arizona right now, who is 13-2 and reeling off statement victories. Carolina is 14-1, and has been the best team for most of the year, and Cam Newton has played like an MVP. Seattle is "only" 9-6 and on the way to the Wild Card, but the two-time defending NFC Champs are white-hot right now. Those three teams are the class of the field for me. You can't count out Aaron Rodgers, because he's Aaron Rodgers, so Green Bay has a shot. Washington is playing really well right now, and won't be an easy out. Minnesota has had an outstanding, surprising year. Right now though, I'd take Arizona to win.

In the AFC, there's more room for error. I like New England with home-field, because Tom Brady is still throwing the ball for them, and because Gronk is my runner-up pick for MVP, if the award was actually all about value. Denver did beat the Pats this season, and their defense is good enough to win, but I don't see Osweiler winning in New England in January. Cincinnati seemed real, but Dalton's injury scares me off, as does the fact that he can't play on Wild Card Weekend. Houston has recovered nicely from a bad start, but won't win the AFC. Kansas City is on fire, and might be the scariest team to see in the post-season. If the Jets win against Buffalo and get in, they won't be easy to beat, but I don't see them winning three in a row to reach the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh needs a win and a Buffalo upset of the Jets to get in, but if they do, watch out. It wouldn't seem crazy to me if you said Pittsburgh gets in, and they and Kansas City both eliminate division champs in the Wild Card round. I like New England to edge either of them, or Denver, if they wrap up home field though.

Who do I like to win the Super Bowl right now? Arizona. I like them to beat New England. I like them to beat Carolina in the NFC title game, after they beat Green Bay, and Carolina edges out Seattle in a thriller. I like New England to beat Pittsburgh/New York in the divisional round, and Kansas City to beat Denver. I like New England to edge out Kansas City in the AFC title game.

All of this is tentative, of course. I'll make final picks after Week 17.

Bradford or Not, I'm Avoiding the Eagles Off-Season Soap-Opera

After the Eagles make their decision on Chip Kelly, which I suspect will be his return for 2016, the next major soap-opera drama in Philadelphia will be whether or not they re-sign Sam Bradford. You'll hear it on talk-radio and see it on Twitter arguments. Fans of a team that is woefully inadequate on the whole will argue passionately over whether one borderline piece of the puzzle should be back or not.

For what it's worth, I'm not totally anti-Bradford. He got better as the year went on, and if you watched him, he really wasn't bad at all. If they had Marcus Mariotta instead of him, as supposedly Chip dreamed of, they wouldn't be in a much better position than they are right now. If they had Nick Foles, it would have been much worse. Bradford was not the big problem that some fans like to imagine. He also isn't a superstar though. He's not an elite QB that you want to commit big money to. If they can sign a reasonable deal, fine. I'd like to see them go look at other options, both in free agency and the draft, before they do that. Perhaps a more club friendly deal can be reached that brings in a "buy low" candidate, which could obviously fail, but also might have a higher ceiling. If he's back though, it won't upset me.

None of this matters though, which is my main point. I don't think Chip Kelly can hack it in the NFL, at least not in his current role. I'm not going to buy into media narratives that the Eagles are some kind of big players in free agency, just to keep the attention on a franchise that is neither close to winning, or has won in my lifetime. The Eagles are going to end up a six or seven win team. They last won a championship when my father was three. They seem to do a great job of winning the attention-grabbing game in the off-season. That hasn't helped matters though.

Will Chip re-sign Bradford? Will he fire Billy Davis? Will he cut DeMarco Murray? Will he cut Jason Peters? What veterans will he bring in from free agency, or rookies from the draft? I'm not paying attention to these small-time stories. If the Eagles make a fundamental change (to be read a complete nuking of the roster or a coaching change), I'll certainly give that a look. Anything less than that isn't going to change the outcome much. This team is not currently good enough to contend. They haven't been since 2008, at least. I'm going to avoid buying in too much to headline grabbing while the core of the roster isn't there. In short, I'm not going to watch this off-season as closely unless events dictate it's worth it. The Eagles haven't earned the over-abundance of attention they get from their fans.

I Support the Governor Using His Veto Pen

I don't know any better than you all do what the Governor will decide to do with the GOP passed budget. For those of you who haven't followed Pennsylvania's budget fight closely, it's six months late, and a GOP driven stunt put a bill on his desk that doesn't meet any of his principles put forward in his 2014 electoral victory. The current GOP budget bill reaching Governor Wolf:

• Does not adequately address our school funding in Pennsylvania. It leaves in place a system that leaves kids in poor communities behind, and doesn't help many other kids get ahead either.
• Does not address our pension system, either with a bulk payment, real systemic changes that protect the workers and the taxpayers, or protect our cities and municipalities from feeling a crunch.
• Does not address rising property taxes, or the crunch they put on seniors with fixed incomes.
• Does not fairly and adequately tax natural gas drillers and their huge profits.

And that's just to name a few.

A lot of people voted for Governor Tom Wolf in 2014. A lot of people had expectations of what he would do as governor of this commonwealth. The Republicans in the legislature seem intent on pretending that he was not ever elected governor, because they don't agree with him. They refuse to acknowledge any of his plans and demands in the budget process, pretending that the legislature is the only portion of our government that matters. A few rebels in the legislature, lead by Senator Wagner and Speaker Turzai, are demanding their way on no new taxes and complete privatization of the liquor stores. They are demanding the governor completely give in to their demands.

Governor Wolf has waited six months already, and the pain being felt in Pennsylvania is real. It would be less painful for many people if he signed the budget, or parts of it, for the short term. If he chooses to do that, I will respect that his judgment told him putting people through pain over the childish objections of legislators who care about no one but themselves was just not worth it. With that said, I hope he vetoes this terrible budget. The legislative leaders and the Governor had a framework in place for a $30.8 billion deal in which everyone made concessions. Speaker Turzai and Wagner-backed extremists on the Senate side refused to take "yes" for an answer. If you're willing to hold out for six months for the future of Pennsylvania's children, it's worth fighting for as long as it takes to make these bullies relent.

I hope the Governor vetoes this bad budget. I hope the Republicans come back to the compromise budget deal. I hope people are not hurt by their childish behavior.

Trump = GOP

I know, I know. You want to scream about how awful Donald Trump is, Democratic activist. You want to be repulsed by his white nationalist campaign for the Presidency. You want to assign racial meaning to "Make America Great Again." That's fine. I agree. I just think you're setting your goals too low.

Donald Trump is the GOP. The GOP is Donald Trump. At one point, the other GOP candidates tried to deny the link. Now? The RNC is formalizing the marriage:

For the Trump campaign, it means access to a database containing a trove of information on more than 200 million Americans, which can be used to power a get-out-the-vote effort. And for the RNC, it means that any information Trump collects from his supporters, many of whom are not traditional Republicans, will be fed back into the database for future use by the party and its candidates.

The agreement, which was confirmed by multiple sources, is similar to one signed by the campaigns of most of the candidates for the GOP nomination.

But it is more notable for Trump, both because the billionaire real estate showman continues to spar with the party and because critics have increasingly questioned whether his campaign has assembled the infrastructure considered necessary to capitalize on his strong poll numbers in key early states.

Yes, Donald Trump and the RNC are making nice. Donald is turning out new versions of the "swamp people" for the GOP in this process, and they want those voters bad. You know, the type of voter who wants to ban Muslims and build a wall with Mexico. Those types. Trump has them, they want them, and if that means they have to sign an agreement that helps him win an election, so be it.

It's important to note that this isn't really new, it's simply formalizing what we already knew- Trump represents the GOP. His opponents are not really better people than him. Chris Christie said he wouldn't even take in five year old orphans as refugees. Jeb Bush called for a religious test to decide who can come in the country as a refugee. Marco Rubio called for a war of civilizations with Islam. Ted Cruz has called for carpet-bombing in Syria and Iraq, also known as a war crime. The whole field is a bunch of bigots, or people willing to bait the bigots into voting by giving them what they want. Trump really isn't any worse than the rest of the pack.

The only change is that the GOP is now acknowledging Donald as one of their own, formally. They are accepting him into the clown-car. They will take his crazy, and hold it up as representative of their own. So like I said, Democratic activists, are we done singling out Trump yet? 

Dancing on CBGB's Grave

CBGB at Newark, complete with iPad ordering system pic.twitter.com/UrllhhBXDm

— Hillary Reinsberg (@hreins) December 23, 2015

Is this a joke?

Just when you thought they couldn’t piss any harder on the grave of legendary venue CBGB than by opening a restaurant in Newark Airport, of all places, it gets worse. POLITICO’s deputy media editor Alex Weprin got his hands on copyright filings that reveal the new ways the holding company in charge of the CBGB name and logo plan to further sully its reputation.

The company has filed for trademark protection on the production of cellphone cases, T-shirts, bags, and beanies. And because what punk wants to get their nifty H&M denim jacket damp, they’re making CBGB branded umbrellas. They’ve also got you punk rock parents all set, with onseies for “infants and toddlers, and baby bibs not of paper” also in the works.

Back in the day, my father's band played in CBGB's. My parents actually saw the glory day. I saw it near it's end, when the place was well past it's prime. This? This restaurant, onesie, and umbrella? Pure vomit. This is the mythical fall of American culture, summed up in one neat little piece. CBGB's went from the "birthplace of American punk" to being some airport bar in Newark. It's awful.

For Your Listening Pleasure

The Democratic Contest Could Begin or End in Iowa

I am operating under an assumption- Bernie Sanders is going to win New Hampshire. It's not because Hillary is hated there (she won there in 2008), or because he has a particularly amazing team there (I don't know that), but mostly geography. Bernie Sanders is the U.S. Senator from Vermont. Before that, he was their lone Congressman. He also served as the Mayor of Burlington, their largest city. Vermont is next to New Hampshire, he's well liked in the region, and he has relationships there. I'd be lying if I didn't say I think he'll win there.

I also think that won't be enough for him, if that's all he does early. Sanders is down by a mile in South Carolina, and Nevada is heavily machine driven, which will favor her. If he's going to compete to win in either of those states, he needs to have serious momentum on his side going in. Bernie's not going to cut into her big lead in South Carolina just because he wins the state next door to his home one. Voters there are far too sophisticated to buy into that.

The race could either become competitive, or be over, on the night of February 1st. If Bernie Sanders wins Iowa, and then New Hampshire, he will shake Hillary Clinton's foundation in a way that even Barack Obama never did (he only won Iowa). If Hillary Clinton wins Iowa, the feeling of inevitability could even put his New Hampshire victory in question, and help her steamroll him out of the way on her way to the nomination. We've seen this before- John Kerry took a victory in Iowa and rode it to the nomination without a lot of fight, beating another Vermonter in New Hampshire the next week. History could repeat itself.

So while you hear a lot of news about New Hampshire and the other early states, on the Democratic side, Iowa is where the action is. What happens in the Hawkeye state could decide who wins the election in 2016.

The Main Event in the Lehigh Valley?

Incumbent State House members haven't been losing re-elections in the Lehigh Valley. In all the years I've been around, I've never seen an incumbent lose a general election for their seat. I've seen them lose primaries, I've seen seats flip because of the incumbent leaving. I haven't seen them just lose. The last time that actually went on around here was back in 1994, and that was a generational shift. One of the people to "wave in" that year was Republican Julie Harhart, in the 183rd district. Now, she's retiring.

This is a real swing seat, and it's open. Mitt Romney apparently carried it (I hear) by a point or so, but the overall Democratic performance index for the seat is above 50%. Amongst the towns in the seat are Northampton, parts of Whitehall and South Whitehall, and Lehigh Township. Democrats rack up their votes in Northampton and Whitehall, while Republicans run up their numbers in Lehigh Township and Moore Township. It's actually a very competitive seat, when incumbency advantages are removed.

The Republicans have a crowded field of three- Cindy Miller, Marc Grammes, and Michael Molovinsky are running. Young Democrat Doug Waterman has announced his candidacy, and a Whitehall Commissioner is going to enter, but hasn't yet (I'm not breaking their name here). If the Democrats don't destroy themselves in the primary, they have a very decent chance against this quite conservative Republican field in a Presidential campaign. This election will probably be one of the most competitive in the Lehigh Valley in a long time.

That Holiday Cheer

Yesterday marked the end of the "Christmas" holiday in my family, which means we made our annual trip to Gilbertsville, PA after Christmas to my great-aunt Margie's house. After being greeted by her "4or Sale" sign on Santa Claus outside (i'm not kidding), we went inside for a fun afternoon of watching football, eating, and listening to relatives say crazy things.

We generally do Christmas Eve at my parents' home, Christmas at my grandmother's, and this other holiday thing the Sunday after. It's three times of listening to the same stories, being annoyed by the same people, and eating almost the same food. It's a great week though. It is something that I dread before, and cherish after it's done every year. My great-aunts and uncles, and my grandmother, are all in their late 80s and early 90s now. I do wish I was going on vacations for Christmas, or going to St. Patrick's Cathedral for mass, or doing any number of things besides what I do, but I can't replace these times when they are gone. I might hate 8 am mass on Christmas morning (ok, not "might"), but someday I won't need to do it.

I'm always happy when the Christmas season is over, mostly because it happened. This year was no different. God willing, we'll do it again in 2016.

Democratic Animus over Nothing

I support Hillary Clinton for President. I worked for her in the past, I supported her in the PA Primary against President Obama. I think she'd be a great President. On the other hand, I like Bernie Sanders a lot. I think he'd be a great nominee. I agree with him on the issues. In other words, I'd have no problem with either being our nominee for President, I could vote for them both.

Ultimately, this is normally the case. In 2008, while the race became very personal between Hillary and Barack Obama, after a little time blowing off steam I was happy to vote for Obama. The President has not disappointed. His Presidency has been a success, and he's done the things I hoped he would. On the issues, he and Hillary Clinton weren't far apart, and in office it showed that it wasn't hard to like both. Such is ultimately the case again in 2016. Bernie and Hillary largely agree on the issues. Their voting records matched during their common Senate time, over 80% of the time. The differences between them are small. The differences between them and the Republicans are rather large.

The things people are fighting over- donors, debates, databases, and process- are not as large of issues as one may think in the heat of the moment. Fighting a brutal and personal battle over these issues is not in anyone's best interests. Resorting to Republican talking points- Bernie people calling Hillary corrupt, Hillary people saying a socialist could never win- will only hurt us all. Let's let them debate, make their smaller differences clear, and then let the primary electorate pick the nominee of their choice. I hope and believe it will be Hillary Clinton, and see no need to stack the deck against Bernie. Let's cut the nonsense and come together.

Chip Kelly, Go Back to College (Or Not)

The Eagles season is over. I don't care if they win or lose next Sunday, I might not even watch. Why bother? They are 6-9, and they aren't even a fun 6-9 team that you enjoy. They just stink. They aren't winning the division. They aren't a playoff team. They aren't even a .500 team. Winning Sunday has no value. In fact, let's be honest, beating New England and Buffalo did nothing but hurt draft position. This team has been done since they imploded against Miami.

The Philadelphia Eagles gave Chip Kelly complete control over the football operations of the team last off-season. He proceeded to re-make the football team in his image. Out went McCoy, Foles, Maclin, Mathis, Herremans, and others. In came Maxwell, Alonso, Bradford, Thurmond, and others. The team went from ten wins to six so far. They were not a Super Bowl contender in 2014 as a ten win team, and now they aren't a .500 team. The road forward got pretty long.

I personally want the Eagles to fire Chip Kelly and move on. I think his "system" has been figured out, and that he puts far too much confidence in his scheme. I think he was never the right hire in the first place, and that we've now seen three seasons without a playoff win. I think it's time we stop trying to put a square peg in a round hole. The team is going to need an actual rebuild, and that should start under someone with a longer leash, with a fresh perspective. I'd like to end this experiment now, and try something else.

I don't think that's going to happen though. My perspective on Chip Kelly is not that of Jeffrey Lurie, a man who has never been quick on the trigger with his coaches. I believe Chip will be back, at least for one more season. It doesn't matter if he changes coordinators or not, though he might do it to appease Lurie, the team will remain Chip's team.

The bottom line is that I'd like to see Chip Kelly leave Philadelphia. He won't though, for now. With that said, I'll hold out hope another week or so, and maybe we'll all get lucky.

The Eagles, Tonight, and the Future

Tonight at the Linc, the Eagles will play a do-or-die football game against DC. If Washington wins the football game, they win the division. If the Eagles win, they have to win again in week 17 to win the division. In the mediocrity that is the NFC East, we're talking about a 6-8 football team winning the division. This is basically what purgatory feels like.

I have a hard time getting pumped up about a 6-8 team's chances. Even if they do win out, and win the NFC East, they aren't a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Oh sure, they beat New England, so "any given Sunday" me all you want, the Eagles will have to beat four teams in a row in playoff games, to win a championship. That means, in direct terms, beat Seattle, Carolina, and Arizona, the last two on the road, to reach the Super Bowl and try to beat a New England, Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, or Pittsburgh. Let me rain on the parade- no chance. It's not happening. Last year I said I didn't believe that Chip's squad was a contender, even when they were flying high, but this year's team is even more obvious mediocrity. They have their moments, but this team is a .500 team at best. They are nowhere near contending.

So, you'll have to forgive me for not being too pumped up for game day today. This isn't a game that leads us to the parade down Broad Street that Eagle fans deserve. This is a survival game to keep us mildly entertained by our mediocre football team. If they lose, at least we don't have to keep up faux hope about a "post-season run." If they win though, we have one more game that decides if we get to put up another NFC East Champions banner. I'd like to have that banner, mostly to deny it to Washington and New York, but it doesn't mean a lot. Even so, I want them to win. I'm just not willing to be upset over it.

I've had more than a singular conversation over whether it is best to win or not. Some friends who also like the Eagles have actually said to me they'd rather lose the last two, in hopes that Chip Kelly gets fired and Sam Bradford is gone. They fear continuing down a hopeless road with Chip, and committing real money to Bradford, who they never see winning a championship. If I actually thought losing the last two games would make Jeffrey Lurie fire Chip Kelly, I might share their view. I don't though. Jeffrey Lurie's Eagles will be worth more next year than this year, and he'll make a profit on the football season. Oh sure, he may act like things are rough (or at least he does while trying to squeeze Temple for some extra money to play at the Linc), but times are good for Lurie, if for no other reason than the Eagles' blue-collar fan base continues to spend their hard earned cash on his team. Jeffrey Lurie allowed Andy Reid to probably stick around five years too long. Unless you think he's suddenly going to change, expect Chip Kelly back. This is life as an Eagles fan. This is the culture of Jeffrey Lurie. I won't leave, because they're my team, but I know how it will go at this point. Chip is probably coming back next season, no matter what. 6-10 will do. Ticket sales will be fine. Merchandise will sell. Don't expect fast change. Don't cheer against your team in hopes that you'll get a better one.

So, go Eagles. Win those last two. Go 8-8. Win the NFC East. Get that one home playoff game, and the money it generates, and then pay Sammy Bradford. Keep Chip around for the full five years. Maybe things will change next off-season. They do have some good players on this roster. They have some who should bounce back next year too. I guess I'll hope for the best, because what else can you hope for? Hopefully tonight, Philadelphia beats Washington.

Ish Smith? Not Into This Ish....

The Philadelphia 76ers are 1-30. They're 0-18 on the road, which is absolutely putrid. As bad as it is, I'm saddled in to ride it out, hoping to land the top pick, get a star, and begin to be an acceptable basketball team again. In other words, I get that they have to be bad to be good again, and I'm accepting this is how it is. Just put the steaming pile of garbage on the court and let's get through this.

I get how bad Tony Wroten looked in his first couple of games back, but I still considered him one of the better talents on this pathetic roster. I thought they'd maybe be able to trade him later and get something, even if it wasn't much. Instead they just cut him, after trading for Ish Smith of the Pelicans. They traded two second round picks for a player who's so good that they let him go in the off-season. We gave up picks to get a really mediocre player. We also cut a player just coming back from injury, at his lowest value. This is the definition of bad front office work.

People would like to blame Sam Hinkie, and that's fine, but I fear this is the first of many Jerry Colangelo "respectability" moves. You should read "respectability" as mediocrity, which is hell in the NBA, a team that "contends" to win some games. I'm in the camp that I really don't want to watch a six, seven, or eight seed team in a season or two, that is where basketball dreams go to die. Getting an Ish Smith maybe helps you win a few more games this season, which is what the NBA owners would like to see, but really does nothing to help the Sixers build a championship contender in a few seasons. I don't want "respectability" moves on this roster. I want them to stink however long it takes to get a player or five that can bring a championship here. Yes, this is brutal to watch, and sure they stink, but I'd rather be trying to win championships than win a few more games. I really hope this isn't the beginning of a trend where we try to "get a little better" right now. That does nothing for me.

The Best (My Favorite) Athletes in Philly Right Now

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

The other day, I heard a WIP debate in which they were debating "the best or most exciting young athlete in the city." Philadelphia teams are really bad, but there are some young talents arriving. They tried to argue that "Ghost" is the guy right now, which while I love Ghost, is not something I agree with. So, I have my own top ten list of the best, most exciting young athletes in Philadelphia.

1. Fletcher Cox- I hate nearly everything about this underachieving Eagles team, but not Fletcher Cox. In my view, he's the best athlete in the city. He needs to get paid now, to anchor this defensive line for years to come.
2. Claude Giroux- The captain annoys me at times, but he is one of the best hockey players in the world right now, the stats don't lie. He has some seriously magical moments on the ice, and is leading a pleasantly surprising Flyers' squad.
3. Maikel Franco- Just behind Cox and Giroux is the best current Phillies player. Franco has the ability to hit for average, hit home runs, and make some highlight reel plays at third base. His overall game isn't polished up to the level it will be, yet, but it is already the most exciting thing at CBP.
4. Shayne Gostisbehere- The Flyer's young defenseman is exciting fans all over the city. "Ghost Bear" is awesome, and will probably get more awesome. I also love that he seems to come up big in the right spots.
5. Odubel Herrera- He was in contention for a batting title for a while on last year's terrible Phillies team. He also was a rookie. He excites me for the future of this team.
6. Jahlil Okafor- While I'm worried about the off-court stuff, Okafor has been pretty solid in his rookie season on the court. I still have very high hopes that he's going to turn into an NBA star.
7. Aaron Nola- The Phillies young right-hander had some down moments in 2015, but he looked every bit the high end pitching talent the Phillies sold him as after picking him in round one of the 2014 draft. 
8. Connor Barwin- I don't have a lot of great things to say about the current Eagles squad, but Barwin is a champ. He's good on the field, and he's cool off it. He's probably their second best pass rusher and actually can tackle. Thank God he's not Kiko.
9. Jerad Eickhoff- I know we didn't see enough for me to actually put him here, but the four teams are so bad that I'm going to choose to believe in what I saw over a lot of decent talent on the other teams.
10. Robert Covington- I know that he's getting stats because he's on a bad team, but I appreciate the effort he's putting in out there. This team is putrid, but he's trying to make it worth your money.

Honorable-ish Mention- Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Mychal Kendricks, Zach Ertz, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Nerlens Noel, Dario Saric (yes, it's at that point).

Phillies Update 12/26- The 25 Man, The 40 Man, and the Minors

It's just about Christmas. Next week it will be New Year's, and suddenly in about six weeks there will be actual baseball news. We're now under two months from players showing up in Clearwater for Spring Training, and the Phillies beginning a new season. The stink of a 99 loss season will begin to hopefully die, and a new beginning that will lead us to another parade will hopefully begin. I'm being optimistic here.

The 2016 Phillies are not the easiest roster to predict at this point. They have spent the off-season building up depth, and being committed to giving as many looks in 2016 as they can to players who might be part of the future puzzle. The Phillies don't expect to be a 90 win team in 2016, or probably even an 80 win team. They expect to find some players who will be on a future good team.

The Phillies will bring 53 players to Clearwater. No more than 40 (sort of) can leave with a Major League roster spot. Only 25 will get to go to Opening Day. The AAA team will have 25 spots waiting for worthy players. It will be a competitive camp.

The 25 Man Roster

The 25 man roster will consist of five starting pitchers, two catchers, at least four outfielders, at least six infielders, another bench spot, and seven relievers. Who will they be?

Catchers- The Phillies are bringing four catchers to camp, lead by veteran Carlos Ruiz and the guy who seemed to take his starting job as 2015 went, Cameron Rupp. Jorge Alfaro also comes to camp with a 40 man spot, but his chances of making the team are near zero. Veteran J.P. Arencibia comes to camp on a minor league deal, and figures to be the competition for Ruiz and Rupp. I see the chances for Arencibia as quite slim though, given the rather full 40 man roster the Phillies have. He would have to clearly outplay one or both current catchers, and even then I think the Phillies would only give him a spot if they could trade one of the incumbents. Bet on Rupp and Ruiz.

Infielders- You can virtually lock in that Maikel Franco will be the third baseman this season. You can virtually lock in that Freddy Galvis will at least start the season at shortstop. While I do think the Phillies will give Odubel Herrera a look at second base for the long-term, I tend to think he won't be there for Opening Day of this season, so I do think Cesar Hernandez will be there, especially because he is out of minor league options. It is my guess that Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf aren't stone-cold locks to make the team, but are very likely to platoon at first base. If that is all the case, the Phillies have one, possibly two spots left for bench infielders.

Outfielders- Odubel Herrera would start out the season as a lock to make the team regardless of position. I thought for a while that the talk of him playing some second base in the Spring meant he was going to move there. Given the current composition of the roster though, and what the Phillies need to see this year, that doesn't make sense. It makes more sense for him to stay in center, and let them evaluate Hernandez and Galvis a little bit longer, in light of J.P. Crawford's impending arrival to take the shortstop job. With that in mind, I'm guessing now that Herrera starts on Opening Day in center field. That means that 40 man roster-mate and prospect Roman Quinn is bound for the minors. That leaves the two corner outfield spots in the line-up, and you can pencil Aaron Altherr in as the likely right-fielder. This leaves Cody Asche, Peter Bourjos, and Tyler Goeddel to compete for left-field. While Goeddel seems likely to make the team, at least to me, I'd expect this really to be about Asche and Bourjos. In my view, playing Asche and hoping he plays well enough to increase his trade value is what makes sense.

The Bench- By virtue of saying Rupp and Ruiz are making the team, I have filled one of the five spots right there. By saying Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf are going to platoon at first, I've filled 40% of the bench before you can even look at them. If Asche and Bourjos end up sharing left-field, that is three. Tyler Goeddel, as a Rule 5 pick, has to make the team and stay all year to stay with the Phillies. Bet on that.  That of course means that 4/5 of the bench is filled. Andres Blanco played well last year as a utility infielder. He has a major league contract and 40 man roster spot. The Phillies need someone to back up in the middle-infield this season. It would make complete sense then that Blanco has the upper hand against non-roster invitees Emmanuel Burriss, Ryan Jackson, and Angelys Nina. Darnell Sweeney would appear to be his real competition. The youngster didn't fare all that well after the Phillies got him in the Chase Utley trade, but he's versatile, young, and talented. He also has options though, and would benefit from regular starts in AAA. My guess is that Rupp/Ruiz, Howard/Ruf, Asche/Bourjos, Goeddel, and Blanco open the season on the bench. With that said, all the other candidates are intriguing in their own way, and might get lucky with a good Spring and a health issue somewhere.

Starting Pitchers- Currently, twelve pitchers are on the 40 man roster and primarily viewed as starting pitchers. Jesse Biddle and Matt Harrison are unlikely to compete in Spring Training, as Biddle will miss most (if not all) of the season after Tommy John Surgery, and Harrison has not been healthy in quite some time. Of the remaining ten, you can pencil in Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vincent Velasquez as the favorites. Brett Oberholtzer and Adam Morgan will be the primary competition, which David Buchanan and Alec Asher will get a look too. The rotation is quite righty heavy though, making one wonder if someone is heading to the bullpen amongst the five favorites. Severino Gonzalez will be pitching to convince the team he deserves a spot in the crowded AAA rotation. I could absolutely see someone being traded yet.

Relief Pitchers- The Phillies will bring 21 relief pitchers to camp, not counting Velasquez, or even other starters like Asher that could be considered for a conversion. They have just seven spots to hand out. Things are crowded.

On the 40 man roster are 2015 regulars Luis Garcia, Elvis Araujo, and Jeanmar Gomez. Also on the roster is veteran late-inning arm David Hernandez. These four would stand out as likely to make the Opening Day roster at least.

Seemingly unlikely to make the team would be non-roster invitees Greg Burke, Reinier Roibal, Gregory Infante, Frank Herrmann, and Chris Leroux. Also unlikely to break camp are less experienced 40 man members Jimmy Cordero, Colton Murray, Michael Mariot, and Edubray Ramos.

This would seem to leave eight relievers for three spots. On the 40 man roster you have two lefties, 2014 regular Mario Hollands, who missed 2015 with Tommy John surgery, and Rule 5 selection Daniel Stumpf, as well as non-roster invitee lefty James Russell. On the 40 man roster you have righties Dalier Hinojosa and Hector Neris, and non-roster invitees Ernesto Frieri, Andrew Bailey, and Edward Mujica. The Phillies could also consider Velasquez here. I would guess that Hollands has the initial edge amongst the lefties, if he looks anything like he did in early 2014. I would also guess that the Phillies are looking for a closer amongst their non-roster righties. I'd guess right now that Bailey leads that pack, if he's healthy, followed by Mujica and Frieri.

So i'm betting on the Phillies bringing a bullpen north of Bailey, Garcia, Araujo, Gomez, Hernandez, Hollands, and Mujica.

The 40 Man Roster
This means the Phillies will be optioning down a few players and freeing up a few spots. First, Biddle's spot will be opened because of his 60-Day DL stint. If Stumpf indeed doesn't win a bullpen spot, his spot will also open up. Harrison could be on the 60-Day DL as well, opening another spot. Either way, the Phillies would fill the two open slots with Bailey and Mujica.

The Phillies would be optioning down a number of 40 man members, at the moment. Jorge Alfaro is likely to be sent to Reading to catch. Roman Quinn will be in Lehigh Valley or Reading, manning center field. Darnell Sweeney seems likely to be the primary second baseman in AAA in the early going. Oberholtzer seems likely to start out at least in AAA, along with Morgan, Buchanan, and Asher. Severino Gonzalez will have to go somewhere, but i'm not sure there's room in AAA for him. Hinojosa, Neris, Mariot, Ramos, Cordero, and Murray all need to fit in a bullpen somewhere.

That would seem to leave the Phillies with about 39 spots on the current roster. They would leave themselves room for one player to be added when needed. The real question mark remains in the bullpen, where they have so many roster spots currently committed. Certainly if they don't pick two non-roster invitees there, it leaves them more space to work with in AAA, and on the roster. Health will obviously change their needs in Spring Training, and perhaps force that.

The IronPigs Roster
This is fairly close to impossible to predict at this point. It would seem that the IronPigs will get a nice collection of prospects though to work with, at least for a while. Their rotation will likely include some portion of Velasquez/Oberholtzer, Morgan, Buchanan, Asher, and Gonzalez, and probably prospects Thompson and Eflin as well. Roman Quinn and Darnell Sweeney seem likely to get optioned to here, and Nick Williams and Andrew Knapp seem likely to be in the AAA line-up at least to start. Obviously, whether right away or in a bit, J.P. Crawford will arrive in Allentown too. They have a boat-load of relievers to choose from, regardless of who the Phillies pick.

This roster will also have some interesting options from the non-roster pool, we hope. Burriss, Nina, and Jackson all are very compelling possibilities here. Arencibia would be a very good fit in AAA, working with a lot of younger arms. Obviously the sheer volume of relievers is hard to cut through, but some of them could fit well here. It's also worth noting that some guys are already on that roster. Ken Roberts, Joely Rodriguez, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, and Tommy Joseph are all former 40 man roster members, while Gabriel Lino is an interesting catcher to watch. This is far from being settled, but the competition for the Pigs roster is going to be pretty intense.

Merry Christmas- Elvis Presley "Blue Christmas"

Pope Francis' Christmas Eve Homily

"Tonight 'a great light' shines forth (Is 9:1); the light of Jesus' birth shines all about us. How true and timely are the words of the prophet Isaiah which we have just heard: 'You have brought abundant joy and great rejoicing' (9:2)! Our heart was already joyful in awaiting this moment; now that joy abounds and overflows, for the promise has been at last fulfilled. Joy and gladness are a sure sign that the message contained in the mystery of this night is truly from God. There is no room for doubt; let us leave that to the skeptics who, by looking to reason alone, never find the truth. There is no room for the indifference which reigns in the hearts of those unable to love for fear of losing something. All sadness has been banished, for the Child Jesus brings true comfort to every heart.

Today, the Son of God is born, and everything changes. The Savior of the world comes to partake of our human nature; no longer are we alone and forsaken. The Virgin offers us her Son as the beginning of a new life. The true light has come to illumine our lives so often beset by the darkness of sin. Today we once more discover who we are! Tonight we have been shown the way to reach the journey's end. Now must we put away all fear and dread, for the light shows us the path to Bethlehem. We must not be laggards; we are not permitted to stand idle. We must set out to see our Savior lying in a manger. This is the reason for our joy and gladness: this Child has been 'born to us'; he was 'given to us', as Isaiah proclaims (cf. 9:5). The people who for two thousand years has traversed all the pathways of the world in order to allow every man and woman to share in this joy is now given the mission of making known 'the Prince of peace' and becoming his effective servant in the midst of the nations.

So when we hear tell of the birth of Christ, let us be silent and let the Child speak. Let us take his words to heart in rapt contemplation of his face. If we take him in our arms and let ourselves be embraced by him, he will bring us unending peace of heart. This Child teaches us what is truly essential in our lives. He was born into the poverty of this world; there was no room in the inn for him and his family. He found shelter and support in a stable and was laid in a manger for animals. And yet, from this nothingness, the light of God's glory shines forth. From now on, the way of authentic liberation and perennial redemption is open to every man and woman who is simple of heart. This Child, whose face radiates the goodness, mercy and love of God the Father, trains us, his disciples, as Saint Paul says, 'to reject godless ways' and the richness of the world, in order to live 'temperately, justly and devoutly' (Tit 2:12).

In a society so often intoxicated by consumerism and hedonism, wealth and extravagance, appearances and narcissism, this Child calls us to act soberly, in other words, in a way that is simple, balanced, consistent, capable of seeing and doing what is essential. In a world which all too often is merciless to the sinner and lenient to the sin, we need to cultivate a strong sense of justice, to discern and to do God's will. Amid a culture of indifference which not infrequently turns ruthless, our style of life should instead be devout, filled with empathy, compassion and mercy, drawn daily from the wellspring of prayer.

Like the shepherds of Bethlehem, may we too, with eyes full of amazement and wonder, gaze upon the Child Jesus, the Son of God. And in his presence may our hearts burst forth in prayer: 'Show us, Lord, your mercy, and grant us your salvation' (Ps 85:8).

Merry Christmas- John Lennon "Happy Christmas (War Is Over)"

Merry Christmas

Well, Merry Christmas to those of you reading this. While there are historical doubts about the date and chain of events, today is the day that modern society marks the birth of Jesus of Nazareth, born in Bethlehem, and called Christ by Christians who would follow for two millenniums after. Whether it is a religious holiday to you, a secular holiday, or simply a day to get Chinese, for a day, our society pauses to mark a momentous historical day.

In the Wilkins Family, the actual bigger day is Christmas Eve, when we celebrate Vilija, a Slovak tradition. It is a 12 course meal that includes no meat, and follows a series of customs. I didn't follow them exact this year, because I was very annoyed to see the meal on the table before 5 pm (so I through a silent fit and watched ESPN in the living room). Eventually I did join though, and the meal was really good. Afterwards we did gifts, and I'm happy to say I have cash and gift cards to last me a while, as well as a new black Lakewood BlueClaws hat. I consider that part to be a win. It's worth noting that Wigilia, the Polish version of Vilija, is also both a tradition, and in my blood, and I want to incorporate it into next year's celebration.

Either way, it's a happy Christmas here. Everyone is healthy, and here. Maybe not everything is perfect in life, but it's good, and by getting up each day, it might get better. Today is a happy day, and a day for good hopes. May you all have a Merry Christmas, and enjoy the holiday, whether you are celebrating it or not.

'Twas the Night Before Christmas

Cruz, Trump, and Attacking the Media

This week, Ted Cruz put out a satire video making fun of Democrats using spin-offs of Christmas stories. In that video, he used his daughters in the video. A Washington Post cartoonist then drew a cartoon, spoofing Cruz, showing his daughters as monkeys. Cruz was outraged, probably fairly. The cartoonist said he made it a fair-game topic, by using his children as props. They both have a point, though I generally just wouldn't use a candidate's children. Cruz is now fundraising off the cartoon.

Donald Trump said that Hillary Clinton got "schlonged" in 2008, recently. The media correctly called that vulgar. Trump says they are wrong, and is attacking them for a bias. We all know what "schlonged" means, and it's not the kind of language that a Presidential candidate should be using about any woman, let alone the one he might end up running against. Trump has made his fight with the media over this term a staple of his speeches to his followers.

My point is that this isn't about real outrage. This is about posturing by conservative candidates to "egg on" their crazy base of voters. Don't give them too much credit when they start bashing the media.

Justice Eakin is Sorry- Sorry That He Was Caught

Sometimes they tell you all you need to know. Take Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice Michael Eakin-

At a hearing Monday on his suspension, Eakin, 67, tearfully apologized for the messages, saying he never intended for them to be made public. The emails were from his private email account, but were captured on government servers because they were exchanged with a friend in the state Attorney General's Office who used his work email.

The justice also blamed "the tabloid press" for sensationalizing the matter and creating a perception that the criminal justice system had been corrupted by the exchange of the crude emails among judges, prosecutors, lawyers, and others.

His judicial opinions over the last two decades, he said, were based on thoughtful reasoning and facts, not biases.

To suspend him, even on a temporary basis, "stains me forever, and legitimizes the process that has led us here," Eakin told the disciplinary court's panel.

Shorter Eakin- I'm sad that I got caught. You should not feel bad for him, as he keeps $203,409 salary while he awaits trial on this matter. Had Eakin not been caught sending pornographic emails, his statement leads me to believe he would not be sorry for having sent them. He's sad basically that his game got outed in public.

Some people would say that we should cut him some slack. We all look at porn, and he's just a human. He should have had some expectation of privacy, right? They agree with Eakin that this has been blown out of proportion.

They are all wrong:

The court also pointed out that Eakin sent and forwarded a number of emails "which were insensitive and inappropriate toward matters involving gender, race, sexual orientation, and ethnicity."

Of particular concern were a series of emails in which Eakin and his friend, a prosecutor in the Attorney General's Office, made lewd references about two of the justice's female staffers, the panel said.

"Clearly these emails, which address judicial employees, are extremely inappropriate and offensive," they wrote.

Not enough for you yet? Here, tell me this is Supreme Court-worthy:

The justice's emails that have been made public contain pictures and videos of topless women, and supposed jokes at the expense of gays, lesbians, feminists, drunken college girls, and, in one instance, nuns.

One mocked Muslim children as suicide bombers, another called Mexicans "beaners," and yet another joked about domestic-assault victims.

Basically, Justice Eakin is a disgusting, repulsive guy, or at least he is some of the time. It is absolutely appropriate that he serve a suspension and be subject to public ridicule for his behavior. Now, with all of that said, you may be surprised that I tell you I don't feel it should be a slam-dunk that he be removed. He was elected by the public, and elections should matter. The key here shouldn't be whether or not this man is a bad guy or not, but rather if his poor judgment carried over to decisions, and whether or not the public should trust his judgment after this. Given that his scandal ties fairly closely to the Attorney General's office, the one that released his emails, the one with whom's office he communicated his pornographic messages to employees in, and the one whom he voted to suspend the law license of, I do believe that Mr. Eakin's judgment is now in question. He has clearly had his ethics compromised, and it's not unreasonable to think his behavior in the Kane situation is tied to his own questionable behavior. There is no way that an enlightened public can trust him anymore.

Again though, he told you- Justice Eakin is sorry he was caught.

Some Thoughts on Allentown

I've mostly stayed out of writing about the FBI probe into Allentown City Hall and Mayor Ed Pawlowski. It's not that I'm disinterested, or don't think it's a very big deal- it is. I've mostly wanted to listen, and hear what others have to say on the matter. I've also wanted to see how it played out, and to get a sense of where this case was going. I think I've now seen enough to voice more of an opinion.

I'm very torn, emotionally speaking, in how I feel about the entire situation. Corruption is corruption, it is bad. Everyone knows that you can't trade contracts for donations, or you go to jail. On the other side of that, despite personal traits that can rub some people the wrong way, Mayor Pawlowski's tenure in Allentown has had some positive highlights. I love the progress in the downtown, obviously lead by the arena. So while I am fine with the feds throwing the book at public corruption, I am just a bit sad to see such good work tainted by such bad behavior. Mayor Pawlowski could have had a great legacy as Mayor, and now his legacy will be forever tainted by even the accusation of bad behavior.

That's how I feel emotionally, but here's what my brain says- this was just flat out stupid. Everyone knows that you can't engage in "quid pro quo" governance, and that appears to have been  happening. You can't rig bids, and you can't force contractors to give donations. It is increasingly appearing as though that is what went on. When you have the city's finance director and it's assistant solicitor pleading guilty, and city contractors awaiting sentencing for their bribes, you realize the case doesn't stop there. It defies logic to believe that all the underlings are pleading guilty and heading to jail, but the boss isn't. Not only do I think we'll see larger heads roll in this case, I think the punishments will be painful.

I don't think it will be quick though. The Mayor is not going to resign from office early, no matter how much screaming and yelling is directed at him. It's not in his personal interest to do so. I don't think the U.S. Attorney's office will be able to build a case and charge him quickly either, no matter how badly the public wants that. I think it's actually 50/50 that the Mayor finishes his term in office, with the only way he doesn't being he is forced out.

I have no idea when or exactly how this will end. Public corruption is complicated, and very difficult to prosecute. My hope is that everyone who committed illegal acts is convicted and goes to jail. I have great trust in the current Justice Department that they can do that well. Hopefully for Allentown's sake, whatever comes next is productive, but not tainted by the hint of corruption.

The Republican Party Did Change After Bush- Just Not How They Should Have

When President Obama won the 2008 election, some seven years ago, it was suggested that the Republican Party would have to change, or it would die. They had just lost a landslide, and lost just about every group of voters, besides white men. It was said that the GOP had to abandon the party they had been under President George W. Bush. They had to stop being a Christian-conservative party. They had to stop being a war-mongering party. They had to turn their back on the Bush-era conservatism. That was the story, at least.

The GOP did change after 2008, but not in the way that we expected. The party basically doubled down on a lot of it's policies, particularly on immigration, guns, abortion, and other social issues. The party insisted on moving to the right on issues of fiscal policy, calling for deep spending cuts. The Republican Party even wants to see President Obama have a much more robust response in Syria and Iraq against ISIS, meaning they haven't even really budged on the Iraq War failure of a decade ago. If that were all, we'd say they didn't learn their lesson, but that is not all. The Republican Party has not stopped at doubling down on old policies and old rhetoric. They've gone much harder right, towards their base, during the age of Obama.

First it was "take our country back," and then it's only become worse. The language of "makers and takers" was introduced to the 2012 election, as was the "food stamp President." Republicans abandoned George W. Bush's appeal to Hispanic voters, and now largely favor building a wall with Mexico. They are calling "Black Lives Matter" protestors "murderers," not merely disagreeing with them. Some are calling for a repeal of marriage equality. Many now favor banning Muslims from coming here, banning refugees from Syria, and even banning "five year old orphans." Some are literally calling for war crimes in the Middle East against Syrians. The infamous 2012 GOP Debate moment when someone yelled "Let 'em die" at Rand Paul now seems mild.

The GOP has become a more hyper-nationalistic, white-identity politics party. I'd call them white nationalists, but only some of them actually know that's what they are. The Republican Party, rather than attempting to even moderate their rhetoric towards voting groups they lose, has decided to double down on groups they win. It's not that they didn't respond to their electoral failings under Bush, it's that they have adopted a strategy that they think will bring out more of their own base. Math says that no matter what they do with that base, it is now a minority in America, but I'm not sure that means it necessarily will fail. In finding a culture driven, more angry group of voters in their base, the GOP has been able to control Congress and state legislative bodies, despite not winning more votes. Additionally, it remains to be seen if the Obama coalition that they are mostly railing against, will hold in elections without him in it. Even a slightly depressed Democratic turnout might mean victory if they can find a few more angry whites. Obviously if Democrats can show that they are able to consistently get voters to the polls, this strategy will fail. With that said, that's an if yet. It also means you can't say the GOP doesn't have a strategy. You might not like the strategy- I don't. However, it is a changing party, even if it is not for the better.

My Two Cents on Easton and It's Football Program

In light of the recent controversy surrounding the future of Easton Football Coach Steve Shiffert, I wrote the following letter to the EASD administration:

To Whom This May Concern, 

I’m sure you have all received many opinions and letters about the football coaching situation, and the issue has probably been discussed at length at this point between you all. As a proud alum of Easton, I felt compelled to write you in response to the campaign to oust the coaching staff, as I think it hits at the heart of what is good within our community. I’m not writing as some personal friend of Steve Shiffert, for whom I never played and don’t really know. I’m writing as a community member who is alarmed about what this says about us. 

Most of your 7th and 8th grade football coaching staff are people I grew up with here in the Easton area. They’re young guys in their early 30s who played here. They went off to college, to great institutions like Penn State, Lafayette, Syracuse, and others, and all achieved great things, whether on or off the field. They could have went anywhere in the world, but they chose to come back to Easton. They chose to give today’s kids the same experience that this community gave them. They embody what is good in our community, our loyalty to each other, and they teach good life lessons to the kids each day. They are exactly the kind of coaching figures we should want the kids of this community to learn under. Their presence here should speak wonders to the kind of program that Easton football is. 

As I said before, I do not know Steve Shiffert, but I reject that the program and the kids are in decline. I reject that a program that sees some of it’s finest young alums come and give back, some even as volunteers, is going in the wrong direction. I would reject that the program is in decay because of it’s won-loss record as well, as the program is very good, but I feel there’s a higher value to be discussed here. It is clear to me that Mr. Shiffert instills the values in his athletes that stay with them for life. That is what’s important, and that is the set of values that should represent our community. 

Sincerely yours,

Rich Wilkins

The Phillies Prospect Rankings- 12/21

It's been a while since I ranked the Phillies system of prospects, so I figured why not do it now? Clearly the system has been further transformed, between Rule 5 picks and trading Ken Giles. Clearly, this is the last time a lot of these guys can be looked at as "prospects." Clearly there is lots to debate about who is ahead of who. In light of that, I'm going to take a stab at this.

A few "findings" before I go into this. There are a number of players the Phillies have obtained since last July that are borderline on whether or not they are "prospects." Jerad Eickhoff, for instance, pitched about two months for the Phillies last season, and appears to be a lock for the 2016 rotation. Eickhoff joins Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Aaron Altherr and Aaron Nola out of consideration as prospects for me. Alec Asher on the other hand pitched the final month of last season in the majors, and is unlikely to start there in 2016. Him and Darnell Sweeney are in, because they aren't locks to make the 2016 roster. Borderline cases like Brett Oberholtzer, Adam Morgan, and David Buchanan are out, due to pitching most of last season or 2014 in the majors. I'm going to keep Vincent Velasquez out, though I'd rank him top five if he were in, mostly because he did pitch much of last season in the majors. I don't know if I expect him to make it though. When I rank the whole organization in January, they'll be considered there.

And so, with that....

1. J.P. Crawford-SS- I expect he'll exit this list in 2016 and make it to the big leagues. It might be later, but that's fine when dealing with his talent.
2. Mark Appel-P- I'm slotting him high based on a high pedigree. Hopefully the Phillies player development folks can get him to grow into the ace he projects as.
3. Nick Williams-OF- Hopefully the Phillies stick him in AAA early this season, and we get to see him play some baseball in Philadelphia. He's dynamic.
4. Jake Thompson-P- He's could see Philadelphia this season. He was really good down the stretch for Reading.
5. Jorge Alfaro-C/1B- I'm guessing he plays the full season in Reading, and the Phillies try to figure out which position is his future. You want to see the big time power develop.
6. Roman Quinn-CF- He's healthy, and should be in Lehigh Valley to start the season. He could make a push for Philadelphia this season.
7. Franklyn Kilome-P- It will be interesting to see if they push him to Clearwater right away, or start him in Lakewood. He could be a fast riser.
8. Cornelius Randolph-OF- I rate him a little lower than most, and it's not because I don't think highly of him. I just see GCL ball as so far from the majors that it's hard to project out. Let's see where he starts 2016 at, and how he does.
9. Zach Eflin-P- I think he's done enough to make AAA to start the season. I like his chances of pitching in Philadelphia by the end of the season.
10. Ricardo Pinto-P- He was really dominant in the A ball level last year. He needs to start out in Reading. He could really grow from there.
11. Darnell Sweeney-2B/OF- I'd like to see him play every day in Lehigh Valley for most of this season. 
12. Andrew Knapp-C/1B- He'll probably start the season in AAA. It will be interesting to see if he can replicate his AA success.
13. Alec Asher-P- I see him getting some starts in AAA and the majors this season, but I do wonder if they try to convert him to a reliever.
14. Thomas Eshelman-P- Picked up in the Giles trade, he safely projects as a back-end starter.
15. Ben Lively-P- I'm guessing he'll be in Reading to start. I'm interested to see how he responds.
16. Nick Pivetta-P- He'll be in Reading this season. You'd like to see him catch up to that level after being good in A ball.
17. Alberto Tirado-RP- He's a potential closer of the future.
18. Carlos Tocci-OF- He'll be back in Clearwater to start. You hope his offensive numbers from 2015 Lakewood finally follow him there.
19. Jimmy Cordero-RP- I'd like to see his triple-digit arm appear in AAA during 2016, if not Philadelphia. 
20. Scott Kingery-2B- I'm a bit skeptical, but he could really break out in 2016.
21. Tom Windle-RP- He could be pitching in the late innings sooner than later.
22. Jesse Biddle-P- It doesn't help his standing that he's missing the season.
23. Tyler Goeddel-OF- I expect he'll make the team and exit this list. Can he ever live up to his high pick?
24. Edubray Ramos-RP- I think we'll see him excel in a late-inning role in the upper minors.
25. Matt Imhof-P- This is a critical year for him.
26. Rhys Hoskins-1B- I was excited by his 2015. He'll have to repeat it in 2016 to be the first baseman of the future.
27. Dylan Cozens-OF- I can see him taking off in Reading this season. He seemed to get better as last year went on.
28. Malquin Canelo-SS- I'd still try him at second base, if it was me.
29. Jose Pujols-OF- Hopefully he'll finally put it all together in Lakewood.
30. Brandon Leibrandt-P- He's consistently solid through A ball. Reading will be interesting for him.
31. John Richy-P- 
32. Cord Sandberg-OF- I'm more down on him than a lot of others. He did finish strong in 2015, so maybe he's turning the corner.
33. Herlis Rodriguez-OF-
34. Victor Arano-P-
35. Harold Arauz-P- Picked up for Giles, it'll be interesting to see if he matches his 2014.
36. Daniel Stumpf-RP-
37. Deivi Grullon-C-
38. Elniery Garcia-P-
39. Kyle Martin-1B-
40. Aaron Brown-OF-
41. Adonis Medina-P- He's far, far away, but he could start to shoot up this board fast when he grows into himself.
42. Gabriel Lino-C-
43. Jose Tobias-2B/3B- 
44. Jhailyn Ortiz-1B-
45. Zachary Coppola-OF-
46. Brock Stassi-1B- He needs a big spring to win the first base job in AAA and remain on this list, despite winning the Eastern League MVP.
47. Willians Astudillo-C-
48. Joely Rodriguez-P-
49. Tyler Viza-P- Just a name to watch here- he was deceptively good for Lakewood.
50. Rafael Marchan-C-

• Honorable Mention- Mark Leiter Jr.-P, Cam Perkins-OF, Andrew Pullin-OF, Lucas Williams-SS, Brian Pointer-OF, Luis Encarnacion-1B, Joey DeNato-RP, Matt Hockenberry-RP, Jesmuel Valentin-2B, Tommy Joseph-1B

How the 2016 Presidential Primaries Seem to be Playing Out

I know a thing or two about national politics. I've worked Iowa, done a couple of Presidential campaigns, and can count five U.S. Senators in my past career. Even I have to admit though, the 2016 Election has so far been one of the weirdest in my lifetime, if not the weirdest. Hillary Clinton has been pushed in the Democratic Primaries by an independent who calls himself a "Democratic Socialist." Donald Trump appears ready to end the Bush Dynasty in the GOP, and if not him, take your pick between Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina. It's been a strange year. With that said, in 42 days the Iowa Caucus will start to actually sort this thing out. Here's the current forecast for that race.

The Democrats
The early states are murky, the outcome doesn't seem to be. In the time since Joe Biden announced he wasn't running for President, Hillary Clinton's national lead is back over 50%, and her standing in early states has improved. She now seems to have a lead in Iowa, though it still seems close between her and Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders seems to have held his lead in New Hampshire, for the most part, though that is also very close. Clinton holds a solid lead in South Carolina, and though there hasn't been much polling in Nevada, she would seem to have advantages there that will help her.

For Bernie Sanders to defeat Hillary Clinton for the nomination, he will have to beat her in Iowa. Under that scenario, he would win Iowa, win New Hampshire, and then get an influx of money and supporters moving his way that allow him to overtake her on Super Tuesday and roll up enough delegates by June to win the election. It feels like a stretch right now. If he loses Iowa, he may still hang on in New Hampshire, but he'll never build up the momentum to actually defeat her then.

For Clinton, winning Iowa means ending the process, though it's not imperative for her. It is possible that if she wins Iowa, she overtakes Sanders in New Hampshire and scores a quick knock out in this race. Even if she didn't win New Hampshire, her South Carolina and Nevada strength help her. She could even lose the first two and still have the organization to win with, just by winning those two. She still has just about every pathway to the nomination in front of her.

The Republicans
Everyone ran for the GOP nomination. Like, literally everyone who could. In the end, only a couple of them actually have any pathway to victory. Modern GOP history tells us that it's unlikely that anyone will win Iowa and New Hampshire. It also tells us that the nominee usually wins one. This time, neither might be true, but no one is coming out of this process the winner without showing well in one of them.

In Iowa, it's usually the top three who survive to fight on. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump appear to be battling for the victory. Third place would seem to be a battle between Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, mainly, though I don't know if i'd totally count out former winners Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum totally yet, or even Bush and Christie. If Trump wins Iowa, he may just run off with the nomination. If Cruz wins Iowa, he'll immediately become a serious contender to win the nomination.

In New Hampshire, the fight to win is a little more murky, but Trump seems to have a clear lead, and Chris Christie appears to have momentum. Cruz, Rubio, and Bush all are also alive there, and seem to have a shot. Iowa will certainly have an impact there.

Right now, it seems that it's most likely that we'll see Cruz win Iowa and Trump win New Hampshire. It also appears most likely the other would finish in second or third in both. Christie's rise in New Hampshire better be real, for his sake, because Rubio would seem to get a bounce from a good showing in Iowa that could push Christie down and out for good. The smart betting money at this point is a protracted race, one that involves Cruz, Rubio, and Trump. In the long-run, Rubio would seem to benefit from that because the other two share voters. His problem is no obvious early victory could lead him to being run out of the race before he can win that war of attrition. As a result, the current favorite is Cruz. He can win Iowa, do well in New Hampshire, and use that momentum to spring-board him in South Carolina and beyond. He has the clearest path to victory in this race. Trump's path is fairly straight forward as well, but history tells us that no one will sweep Iowa and New Hampshire. With that in mind, his road is hard. As for Bush or Christie, their only way forward is a good showing in New Hampshire, followed by a long, slog through the primaries to the convention, at least for now. If either could win in New Hampshire, that might change things, but short of that, they have to just survive early and get into the more nationalized contest.