How the 2016 Presidential Primaries Seem to be Playing Out

I know a thing or two about national politics. I've worked Iowa, done a couple of Presidential campaigns, and can count five U.S. Senators in my past career. Even I have to admit though, the 2016 Election has so far been one of the weirdest in my lifetime, if not the weirdest. Hillary Clinton has been pushed in the Democratic Primaries by an independent who calls himself a "Democratic Socialist." Donald Trump appears ready to end the Bush Dynasty in the GOP, and if not him, take your pick between Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina. It's been a strange year. With that said, in 42 days the Iowa Caucus will start to actually sort this thing out. Here's the current forecast for that race.

The Democrats
The early states are murky, the outcome doesn't seem to be. In the time since Joe Biden announced he wasn't running for President, Hillary Clinton's national lead is back over 50%, and her standing in early states has improved. She now seems to have a lead in Iowa, though it still seems close between her and Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders seems to have held his lead in New Hampshire, for the most part, though that is also very close. Clinton holds a solid lead in South Carolina, and though there hasn't been much polling in Nevada, she would seem to have advantages there that will help her.

For Bernie Sanders to defeat Hillary Clinton for the nomination, he will have to beat her in Iowa. Under that scenario, he would win Iowa, win New Hampshire, and then get an influx of money and supporters moving his way that allow him to overtake her on Super Tuesday and roll up enough delegates by June to win the election. It feels like a stretch right now. If he loses Iowa, he may still hang on in New Hampshire, but he'll never build up the momentum to actually defeat her then.

For Clinton, winning Iowa means ending the process, though it's not imperative for her. It is possible that if she wins Iowa, she overtakes Sanders in New Hampshire and scores a quick knock out in this race. Even if she didn't win New Hampshire, her South Carolina and Nevada strength help her. She could even lose the first two and still have the organization to win with, just by winning those two. She still has just about every pathway to the nomination in front of her.

The Republicans
Everyone ran for the GOP nomination. Like, literally everyone who could. In the end, only a couple of them actually have any pathway to victory. Modern GOP history tells us that it's unlikely that anyone will win Iowa and New Hampshire. It also tells us that the nominee usually wins one. This time, neither might be true, but no one is coming out of this process the winner without showing well in one of them.

In Iowa, it's usually the top three who survive to fight on. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump appear to be battling for the victory. Third place would seem to be a battle between Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, mainly, though I don't know if i'd totally count out former winners Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum totally yet, or even Bush and Christie. If Trump wins Iowa, he may just run off with the nomination. If Cruz wins Iowa, he'll immediately become a serious contender to win the nomination.

In New Hampshire, the fight to win is a little more murky, but Trump seems to have a clear lead, and Chris Christie appears to have momentum. Cruz, Rubio, and Bush all are also alive there, and seem to have a shot. Iowa will certainly have an impact there.

Right now, it seems that it's most likely that we'll see Cruz win Iowa and Trump win New Hampshire. It also appears most likely the other would finish in second or third in both. Christie's rise in New Hampshire better be real, for his sake, because Rubio would seem to get a bounce from a good showing in Iowa that could push Christie down and out for good. The smart betting money at this point is a protracted race, one that involves Cruz, Rubio, and Trump. In the long-run, Rubio would seem to benefit from that because the other two share voters. His problem is no obvious early victory could lead him to being run out of the race before he can win that war of attrition. As a result, the current favorite is Cruz. He can win Iowa, do well in New Hampshire, and use that momentum to spring-board him in South Carolina and beyond. He has the clearest path to victory in this race. Trump's path is fairly straight forward as well, but history tells us that no one will sweep Iowa and New Hampshire. With that in mind, his road is hard. As for Bush or Christie, their only way forward is a good showing in New Hampshire, followed by a long, slog through the primaries to the convention, at least for now. If either could win in New Hampshire, that might change things, but short of that, they have to just survive early and get into the more nationalized contest.