Is Our Time Coming?

Last night was quite a night for Cleveland. The city waited over a half-century, but they got their championship. With that hex gone, the two most recognizable droughts in sports are the Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Eagles. In fact though, Philadelphia is now at eight years without any championships, while the Flyers are reaching the four decade mark, the Sixers are at 33 years, the Phillies have two in their 133 year history, and the Eagles last won a title in the Eisenhower administration. In other words, I'm happy for Cleveland, but Philadelphia has had it tough.

It's very tough right now. The only team in the city to reach the playoffs in the past year are the Flyers. The Eagles were 7-9, the Phillies 63-99, and Sixers 10-72. The Phillies are mired in a long run of futility this June, more than erasing a good start. With all the teams so bad, the question is, is there a light at the end of the tunnel? Maybe. And it may be closer than you think. We are probably right in the midst of the most important stretch if we're going to emerge from this funk.

The Eagles:

• The Pro Argument- Carson Wentz. If the Eagles are going to win a Super Bowl in the next decade, he is probably the piece that decides it. No disrespect to Fletcher Cox and the other guys who got extensions this off-season, but you don't win championships in the NFL without either a franchise QB or an air-tight defense. I have hopes for the defense, but you can't project something like Denver's defense of last season. You have to hope that getting rid of the village idiot and replacing him with a new coach and QB will result in a title. We'll see.
• The Con Argument- Well, for one, they last won a championship when my dad was three. That's not good. Carson Wentz, like all top five QB's, has about a 75% chance of not living up to the hype, Doug Pederson wasn't high on many coaching lists, and Chip Kelly utterly destroyed the roster by trading away all the fire power. The receivers and running backs stink, and the defense is unproven. Oh, and we don't have a first round pick next season.

The Flyers:

• The Pro Argument- Ghost, Giroux, Voracek. It's an exciting young core. Some potential goaltenders in the minors. A GM who knows what he's doing, and is transitioning them away from "The Bullies" brand of hockey. A team that surprised us this season by being a playoff team at a very young age may continue to progress. A core of skilled, young defensemen could finally make the Flyers capable of facing down elite competition.
• The Con Argument- They lost in the first round. Their division will be stacked for a while. Giroux and Voracek aren't really stars. No goaltender has emerged yet as "the guy." They lost in the first round. Other young squads will not be getting out of their way anytime soon.

The Phillies:

• The Pro Argument- A series of top ten picks, several major trades for young talent, an immediate future of some high picks, a GM that now uses sabermetrics, and the end of the 2008 team's contracts this off-season. There are some young talents on the MLB team that may blossom. The top three teams in the minor leagues are all really, really good. A huge TV deal, and an owner who wants to spend money to win. A great ballpark and recent success make the city a destination for potential mega-free agents. Success at signing draft picks.
• The Con Argument- Two titles in 133 years. A team that has barely won any games this month. Injuries and poor performances by the starting pitchers. A line-up that can't hit at all. A new GM who has made some questionable promotions and draft picks recently. Poor history in the international market. Concerning performance by some of the young talent on the MLB team.

The Sixers:

• The Pro Argument- Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, and the #1 pick in this draft. Three first-rounders this year, two next. Either you keep Okafor and Noel, or you trade them for premium talent. A front office no longer committed to tanking. Plenty of money for free agency. The Colangelos have relationships with stars through the USA Basketball angle.
• The Con Argument- Who is going to sign with this team. They won ten games last season. They are about to trade a talented front-court player just to do so. Embiid and Saric have never played a game. Two of the picks this year are later in the first round. The Colangelo tandem specializes in creating borderline playoff teams that sit in purgatory.

So, are we close? I feel best about the Phillies and Flyers at the moment, and worst about the Eagles. At some point in the next couple of years, we may finally get to taste success again from some of these young talents excelling. Our collection of high picks might finally make us competitive again. Only time will tell. Congratulations to Cleveland, but it's our turn.

Betting on Carson

When the Eagles traded up for the #2 pick in the NFL Draft a few weeks back, I have to admit being a skeptic. The price was quite high, and giving up a potentially high pick in the 2017 draft was a real concern for me. To top that off, the player they wanted so badly, Carson Wentz, was hardly the kind of major D-1 household name that perhaps we are used to picking that high on the board. Couple all of that with general skepticism with the front office and franchise in general, and the whole thing made me nervous.

The draft has now been over a week though, and I'm going to say something I haven't said about the Eagles in a long time- I'm buying into Carson Wentz. Part of this is the reality that he is who we have to buy into, or we're stuck despairing about this franchise for the next half decade. A bigger part though is that Carson seems like a good bet to me. Two national titles at the FCS level, plenty of size, good reviews on the football side, and good reviews on the personal side all moved me into the "pro" Wentz camp. He seems like quality to me, and I'll bet on quality.

To be clear, I do think that if I were the GM, I would have picked an offensive lineman at #8 and drafted a Hackenberg type in the third round, at a lower risk, but that's not how the Eagles went. Carson Wentz is the future now, and he will be the Eagles quarterback in due time. It doesn't matter that he didn't play at a Michigan or Ohio State (neither did Ben Roethlisberger, and he clearly sucks, right?). What matters is that he has the talent and the make-up to be a big time QB.

Will Carson Wentz lead Philadelphia on a Broad Street parade? Time will tell. I'm buying in though that we just hit a home run- like I did in 1999.

Hey Sleeves...

Let me start by saying this- I don't necessarily blame Sam Bradford for his recent behavior. In the NFL, you have a limited window to make money thanks to the non-guaranteed nature of their contracts, and when that's over, you're done. When the Eagles traded up to #2 in the 2016 NFL Draft, the writing was on the wall for Bradford that he both wasn't long for starting in Philly, and that he may not get that second year on his deal. I don't blame him for demanding a trade, and in the process trying to kill his own value to the Eagles. With a fairly large payroll number by him the next two years, he's not easy to move. Bradford was simply being a smart business man.

Playing the leverage game only works for so long though, and there's another side to this reality- Bradford's situation is no one else's fault. Sam Bradford is not a bad NFL quarterback, he's a roughly average quarterback, if he stays on the field. His problem is that the expectations on him were much higher. He was picked #1 overall by the then St. Louis Rams. and just hasn't been that player. He's good enough to play and start for the right price. He's not the guy the Eagles are going to build the future around though. Now, in the interest of trying to guarantee himself something he really hasn't earned yet in the league, he's risking his job as a starter, just to prove a point.

I don't think the Eagles did Sam Bradford a solid, if they indeed didn't tell him this was their direction when they signed him. Sam Bradford is being compensated healthily though to play a boys' game as an adult. He's a multi-millionaire, for playing football. Yes, his team picked someone who will compete for his job with him. He still has a big time contract, as he has since being picked #1 in the 2010 draft, and should show up and play football for that money. He of all people, should know that Carson Wentz is guaranteed absolutely nothing.

No, I'm Not Giving Jeffrey Lurie Any Credit

Holy $%*&:

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — He hasn’t been wrong too often. His body of ownership proves he’s been more right than wrong, and it’s a fact that often gets lost in the constant quest for the missing bauble—a Super Bowl.

In 22 years owning the Philadelphia Eagles, Jeffrey Lurie has only witnessed six losing seasons. He’s arguably the city’s best pro owner over the past two decades and though the Eagles have not been to the playoffs since January 2013, Lurie’s track record shows he knows how to win.

In Lurie’s tenureship as owner, the Eagles have been to the playoffs a dozen times. They’ve been to five NFC championship games. The franchise has won more under Lurie than any previous owner.

Stop it, stop it, and stop it. No. Jeffrey Lurie is a nice enough guy on TV (I don't know him personally), and I think he does care about the team winning, so I give him that. I also give him this- he doesn't have a Super Bowl title. He's had one Super Bowl loser in his 22 seasons. One. Carolina has had two. The Giants have been to three, and won two. Pittsburgh has been to three, and one two. Traditional juggernauts in New Orleans, Tampa, and Seattle have a title. Seattle has actually been in three since the Eagles lost the Super Bowl. Get on an interstate in Philadelphia and drive to the next city- their football team has had more success in the Lurie era. He tries hard, I support that. Don't tell me he's a winner. Don't tell me he's arguably the best owner during his time in Philadelphia- the Phillies had a parade and a couple of World Series appearances in that time. They have a title to point to.

Then there's this:

And think about this: have you ever heard a departed Eagle complain about how they were treated during their time in Philadelphia? It doesn’t happen.

Terrell Owens? DeSean Jackson? C'mon, let's not go there.

I like the off-season the Eagles have had. I like the hiring of Doug Pederson. I like that Jeffrey Lurie gives a damn about his fans, the city, and his team. Really! I am hopeful that this is the time we get it right, as I was hopeful for Ray Rhodes and Andy Reid, and while I was a 100% skeptic of Chip Kelly from the start, I was hoping against hope then too. It just wasn't happening. This time, I hope it will, and the start has me excited- but please, don't start the stupid "Eagles hype" in March. This franchise has not been a winner, and it needs to prove it can win before it can start talking about how great it is. That includes the owner, who has zero titles in his 22 years. You play the game to win the title. If you're not winning it, you're losing. Losing one Super Bowl in 22 years does not make one confident in the results ahead. Let's hope for a course correction in the Pederson era.

I'm Trying Not to Follow the Eagles Drama, But...

C'mon, Byron Maxwell can't do a push-up? For real? Of course the Eagles made an amazingly awesome trade to get rid of him and Kiko Alonso, and there had to be drama anyway. It's the Eagles way. Howard Eskin claims the trade will still happen, but even so, the drama of it is disappointing, if not surprising.

Welcome to the Eagles way. The team goes 7-9, and is several years from contention, but we're going to hear about them 24/7 in the Philadelphia press in these early days of free agency. The "drama queens" of the city are making lots of moves, and thereby overshadowing the Flyers playoff run and the Phillies spring training. While I do not subscribe to the "Philly is a football town" theory, given the attendance streak the Phillies had in recent years and the sell-outs the Flyers always enjoy, clearly the talk radio scene is dominated by the Eagles.

With that said, I can't help but weigh in on the Eagles off-season so far. We fired the coach before the season ended, which was what I was hoping for. We've signed a number of team-friendly extensions, which is always good. I'm happy that they didn't overpay for Bradford, but did keep him. Riley Cooper is gone. I'm also really happy with the Doug Pederson hire. No, he's not a big, flashy name, but Doug has shown himself to be a realistic, sober-minded football guy in his short tenure as coach. This week though, he's topped himself. Kiko Alonso? Gone. Byron Maxwell? Gone. DeMarco Murray? Gone. The Eagles moved up in the first round, and moved lots of bad salary. I'm quite happy with this week.

I'm kind of sick of the constant Eagles talk in Philadelphia sports, but I'm also happy with the direction the team is now going in. Is Doug Pederson the answer to Philadelphia's prayers? No idea yet. I do like what I'm seeing though. As long as the Eagles keep making moves that make sense to me, I might even eventually like the constant talk surrounding them.

I'm Swearing Off Philly Sports Talk Radio

Today, the Phillies will open Spring Training. The Sixers and Flyers are currently playing real games. One would think that both WIP and the Phanatic in Philadelphia would be talking about one of those three teams. They are all very young teams that are moving in a new direction, and may be on the rise. Instead though, Philadelphia sports talk radio is all about Sam Bradford, and whether the Eagles will put the "franchise tag" on him. It's all about a 7-9 team that hasn't won a title in over 55 years, has a new, unproven coach, and who consistently insists on having their drama play out on the front pages of the city's papers.

I just don't care.

The Eagles haven't been a real Super Bowl contender since 2008, and nothing involving their current quarterbacking situation is going to change that status. They refuse to rebuild, and their owner refuses to commit to a defense-first attitude that could make them a serious force.

I just don't care.

So, until the radio stations want to start discussing some of the teams who are trying to build a champion, I don't have a need to listen. I don't need to hear twelve different opinions on whether they should (obviously) sign Fletcher Cox to a long-term deal. I certainly don't need to hear terribly mistaken fans who think signing Bradford back is the difference between 4-12 and 12-4. I'm sorry, I'm least excited about the Eagles, of the four teams in the city right now. This isn't to say I have no interest, it's to say that my interest was killed long ago by being continually fed constant Eagles talk on the radio. I get it, they have an off-season. They're a 7-9 team though. Let's stop acting like anything all that big is going on with them.

I'm Fine With Doug

Doug Pederson is apparently the next coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. He lacks the resume of Tom Coughlin, or the trendy-support of Adam Gase, but he's our guy. You know what though? I'm fine with that.

You're going to hear a lot of people say why they don't like this hire. Some won't say it, but for them it's about his time as a player (basically a career back-up), and the lack of "luster" on him as the hire. Pederson did not have a lot of suitors for a head coaching job, though that should not matter. He was an Andy Reid "disciple," though I'm not sure why that's bad. His offense in Kansas City did not put up monster numbers, though I'm not sure that's a good metric for hiring a head coach. He didn't call plays in Kansas City- though again, i'm not sure why that matters for a head coach.

I do get it. The Eagles fanbase considers this an elite job. In many ways it is, but that doesn't mean it's for everybody. Eagles fans come to expect that an elite coach would want their job, and they'd get the trendy pick as head coach, like they did three seasons ago with Chip Kelly. Pederson doesn't fit that bill. He seems like a boring pick, running a rather conservative offense in Kansas City. He's the "vanilla" pick here, the one that doesn't really excite you.

All of this is fine though. If five years from now he's winning his second or third division title and taking the team deep into the playoffs (also known as contending), we'll all have a different take on Pederson. I'm approaching his hire as a positive, and waiting to see what he does. I'm starting out at least as a supporter.

I do have a few questions though:

1. What arrangement has been worked out with regarding personnel decisions? Chip ran Howie Roseman out, then fell on his own face this season, but nobody is exactly clamoring for Howie to make the decisions again. It will be interesting to see how the power dynamic works here.
2. Is he free to make decisions regarding his coaching staff? If not, why bother taking the job? There are reports that Jeffrey Lurie's pushing candidates to keep assistants on the current staff pushed away candidates like Tom Coughlin. I'd like to know the extent to which Pederson runs the staff.
3. How does he feel about the QB situation? He's been offensive coordinator in Kansas City with Alex Smith as his QB, not someone widely viewed as great. Does he feel Sam Bradford is "his guy." If not, who in the draft or free agency does he like? 
4. Is the team a few tweaks or years away from contention? Should we hope for a 10-6 team in 2016, or a high pick? Is the offense or defense further away? What is the top need to be addressed, and is it better addressed in the draft or free agency this year?
5. After Fletcher Cox, who else would he lock up, if anyone? What generally positively viewed players should be moved?

I'm pro-Doug tonight. How these questions get answered will show how I am in the long-term. 

I Don't Trust the Eagles

Yesterday, Jeffrey Lurie and his braintrusts went to Kansas City to interview Doug Pederson. Now, to be clear, I actually like Doug, and appreciate what he did in the past for the Eagles franchise (including taking one for the team in Donovan McNabb's rookie season). I would be fine with the team hiring him, and I'd be much more enthusiastic than I ever was in the Chip Kelly era. He's also not my first choice though. Nor was Adam Gase, or really any offensive coach they have interviewed.

I want a defensive coach. I want someone who is the "anti-Chip," a coach who does not want to "change the game." I want someone who gets it's about defense first. As you can see above, the top teams in defensive "points per game" are basically all playoff teams (besides the Jets, who did win ten games). That's not what the Eagles have been interviewing, for the most part.

This hire will tell us much about Jeffrey Lurie. I'm glad he fired Chip Kelly, who I never thought was a good hire. I'm still concerned that he hired Kelly, and seemed really intent on hiring him last time. I'm concerned about Lurie's obsession with offense. I'm concerned that Lurie doesn't get the distance between his team and the teams still playing in the playoffs. I'm concerned that he'll give a lot of power to another unqualified and unprepared coach, or hire someone who won't build the team right.

I have a hard time trusting the guy who hired Chip Kelly to hire the next football coach of the Eagles. I'm very willing to support a hire, even a less-than-perfect hire like Pederson would be on paper. I just am very skeptical that things are going to get better in any kind of fast manner.

The Decisions Ahead of the Eagles

I feel liberated as a fan. I love the Eagles, but I really didn't like the hire of Chip Kelly. I also didn't like Nick Foles. In the course of 2015, both got sent packing from town, and now both of their jobs are front and center as the Eagles move forward. What we know, right now, is that the Eagles need a GM, a coach, to make a decision at quarterback, and have the 13th pick in the draft, as well as no second round pick.

In all of these decisions, the important factor is where you think the Eagles are now. I think they are a 7-9 team that didn't sniff the playoffs. I don't think they "underachieved," or "have talent," or any other positive spin on their season. I think they are a team that missed back-to-back playoffs, and have gone 8-12 in their last 20 games. In other words, I don't think they are that close to contending for a championship. I would not be shocked if they are three years from contending for a championship. Could it be faster? Sure. I'm not assuming success though with a franchise that last won a title 55 years ago. I'll take the safe, conservative outlook that they are two years from the playoffs and three from contention.

So, with that, my opinions on the off-season:

• The Eagles should hire a strong football guy/GM- A lot of people are wrapped up in whether or not Eagles' lifer Howie Roseman has the GM job. Whether he does or doesn't, I would like to see the Eagles have a strong football guy, independent of the coach, come in and run the football operation. If they report to Howie, whatever, because I see that as little different from reporting to the owner. I just don't want them to be the coach's "yes man."
• The Eagles should hire an NFL coach, preferably a defensive minded one- Don't read that as meaning they need to hire someone who's been a head coach, because I don't mean that. I mean I want an NFL guy. I don't want a gimmicky coach, especially a college coach, but someone who gets the way the league works, gets the personalities, and will build a fundamentally strong team. I would be fine with an accomplished head coach like Payton, but I think right now my expectation is a defensive coordinator type. I'm not against an offensive coordinator, I just think defense wins championships. Sean McDermott, Adam Gase, and Hue Jackson do stand out to me, amongst the coordinators out there. I'm not "anti" Duce Staley though either, but I'm somewhat skeptical of hiring inside. No matter what, I want someone who gets the NFL "culture," and who has the patience to deal with a season of rebuilding the roster.
• I would not give Sam Bradford a huge deal- I think Sam Bradford did a decent job this year. He wasn't an All-Pro QB, but he wasn't bad either. All discussions about Bradford's season are a straw man though in the debate about whether or not to sign him back. Sam Bradford had a good enough season that he shouldn't want a one year deal from the Eagles. The Eagles are further away from winning a title than just retaining Bradford. If the goal is winning a title, I still am not convinced that Bradford is that kind of QB anyway. I'm not against a 2-3 year type of deal for him, per se, I just don't really see the point of it for either side. If the Eagles decide to rebuild the roster, next year is a lost season, and you would actually want the team to get a high draft pick. Bradford's actually too good for this team win less than six games. I think I lean towards signing a reclamation project QB (RG3, Kaepernick, etc.) and drafting a QB in the early rounds this year. That's not the quick way to 10 wins, I get that, but it seems to check off more boxes.
• Lock up the defensive front- Can we get Fletcher Cox signed long term? Maybe a deal for Bennie Logan or Vinnie Curry? To me, the front is this team's strength. Cox is the best player on the team. I'd like to keep him around a while.
• Draft some O-Line Help- Championships are won on the line. The Eagles line is thin, and needs talent. I'd like to see them draft a lineman or two in this draft, and fill out the roster. I'm fine with keeping Jason Peters, the more I read and think about the season, but his age isn't going down, so the Eagles would be well advised to build depth around him.

Those are my big points right now. I'd like to give DeMarco Murray a better look in a downhill running system, and I'd like to see them get a receiver or two, though I'm not sure they have room to draft one. Past that, I'm still beaming because Chip is gone. It's a new day for the Eagles.

I Hate Being an Eagles Fan Sometimes

Yay, we swept the Giants.... or not yay. Not yay at all, because we have a lower draft pick now. Not yay at all, because we will play a second place schedule instead of a third place schedule. Not yay at all, because instead of playing the Rams in London, we'll play Seattle out there. I hope that 35-30 win felt really good.

Had the Philadelphia Eagles lost yesterday, they would have finished 6-10, instead they are 7-9. The win made the Eagles the second place team in the NFC East, meaning next year they will host Atlanta and visit Seattle, while the Giants will get to play St. Louis and New Orleans. The Giants get to pick ninth, the Eagles 13th in the draft.

Obviously this is hard, because no self-respecting coach or player is going to throw a game. Should Pat Shurmur, who is probably fired today, have played all back-ups? Yeah, I'd say so. Does that mean the Eagles would have lost? Tough to tell. You know that in a week where their coach was fired, there was a pride issue in the Eagles locker room, and a desire to show they really do have talent. They went out and played hard, and got a win, which is what you hoped for all year.

Unfortunately though, for the second straight year, a meaningless Week 17 win in the Meadowlands means the Eagles give up draft slots. This year it cost them scheduling too. On next year's schedule now are playoff teams Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Washington, Seattle, Green Bay, and Minnesota. Tack on .500 Atlanta, and four other division games, and it's a tough schedule. The Eagles would be underdogs at least three times at home, right now, and probably be a toss-up in four of the other five games.

Well, at least they played hard, and won a game, and swept a season series, or something. I hope it was good entertainment.

Bradford or Not, I'm Avoiding the Eagles Off-Season Soap-Opera

After the Eagles make their decision on Chip Kelly, which I suspect will be his return for 2016, the next major soap-opera drama in Philadelphia will be whether or not they re-sign Sam Bradford. You'll hear it on talk-radio and see it on Twitter arguments. Fans of a team that is woefully inadequate on the whole will argue passionately over whether one borderline piece of the puzzle should be back or not.

For what it's worth, I'm not totally anti-Bradford. He got better as the year went on, and if you watched him, he really wasn't bad at all. If they had Marcus Mariotta instead of him, as supposedly Chip dreamed of, they wouldn't be in a much better position than they are right now. If they had Nick Foles, it would have been much worse. Bradford was not the big problem that some fans like to imagine. He also isn't a superstar though. He's not an elite QB that you want to commit big money to. If they can sign a reasonable deal, fine. I'd like to see them go look at other options, both in free agency and the draft, before they do that. Perhaps a more club friendly deal can be reached that brings in a "buy low" candidate, which could obviously fail, but also might have a higher ceiling. If he's back though, it won't upset me.

None of this matters though, which is my main point. I don't think Chip Kelly can hack it in the NFL, at least not in his current role. I'm not going to buy into media narratives that the Eagles are some kind of big players in free agency, just to keep the attention on a franchise that is neither close to winning, or has won in my lifetime. The Eagles are going to end up a six or seven win team. They last won a championship when my father was three. They seem to do a great job of winning the attention-grabbing game in the off-season. That hasn't helped matters though.

Will Chip re-sign Bradford? Will he fire Billy Davis? Will he cut DeMarco Murray? Will he cut Jason Peters? What veterans will he bring in from free agency, or rookies from the draft? I'm not paying attention to these small-time stories. If the Eagles make a fundamental change (to be read a complete nuking of the roster or a coaching change), I'll certainly give that a look. Anything less than that isn't going to change the outcome much. This team is not currently good enough to contend. They haven't been since 2008, at least. I'm going to avoid buying in too much to headline grabbing while the core of the roster isn't there. In short, I'm not going to watch this off-season as closely unless events dictate it's worth it. The Eagles haven't earned the over-abundance of attention they get from their fans.