The Democratic Contest Could Begin or End in Iowa

I am operating under an assumption- Bernie Sanders is going to win New Hampshire. It's not because Hillary is hated there (she won there in 2008), or because he has a particularly amazing team there (I don't know that), but mostly geography. Bernie Sanders is the U.S. Senator from Vermont. Before that, he was their lone Congressman. He also served as the Mayor of Burlington, their largest city. Vermont is next to New Hampshire, he's well liked in the region, and he has relationships there. I'd be lying if I didn't say I think he'll win there.

I also think that won't be enough for him, if that's all he does early. Sanders is down by a mile in South Carolina, and Nevada is heavily machine driven, which will favor her. If he's going to compete to win in either of those states, he needs to have serious momentum on his side going in. Bernie's not going to cut into her big lead in South Carolina just because he wins the state next door to his home one. Voters there are far too sophisticated to buy into that.

The race could either become competitive, or be over, on the night of February 1st. If Bernie Sanders wins Iowa, and then New Hampshire, he will shake Hillary Clinton's foundation in a way that even Barack Obama never did (he only won Iowa). If Hillary Clinton wins Iowa, the feeling of inevitability could even put his New Hampshire victory in question, and help her steamroll him out of the way on her way to the nomination. We've seen this before- John Kerry took a victory in Iowa and rode it to the nomination without a lot of fight, beating another Vermonter in New Hampshire the next week. History could repeat itself.

So while you hear a lot of news about New Hampshire and the other early states, on the Democratic side, Iowa is where the action is. What happens in the Hawkeye state could decide who wins the election in 2016.