Tuesday, December 8, 2015

An Updated Look at the 25 man Phillies Roster Projection

When the Phillies open up the 2016 season, they will have a 25 man roster. That's clear. Beyond that, most of the details are hazy. They are coming off of a 99 loss season, and they have exactly nobody with a guaranteed contract beyond 2016 besides Matt Harrison (who may or may not be healthy enough to ever pitch again). The team the Phillies bring to Opening Day won't look much like the 2015 Opening Day team at all, which is probably good, because that team was awful.

What we know is that the Phillies will have five starting pitchers, eight starting position players, seven relief pitchers, and five bench players. That's about all we know right now. Here's a look at how that roster looks today:

  • Starting pitching- Lock in Jeremy Hellickson, Aaron Nola, and Jerad Eickhoff. If he's healthy, lock in Harrison too. Right now, that would leave Adam Morgan as the fifth starter. The Phillies, due to Morgan's unproven standing and Harrison's health, could be looking for another veteran starting pitcher to help them get through at least until the trade deadline.
  • Starting Line-Up- You can write Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera in ink, Aaron Altherr, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, and Cameron Rupp in pencil, and put a marker down right now for Cody Asche or Peter Bourjos in left field, and a platoon of Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf at first base. I'd say Bourjos is not really a starter at this point, so give the edge to Asche, but they could move him, provided they were getting some level of value for him. A left-fielder could be a need on the free agent market, provided the Phillies want to have someone more stable there until Williams arrives.
  • Bench- You have to reserve spots for the Ruf/Howard platoon, a fourth outfielder who is probably Bourjos, a back-up catcher who is currently Carlos Ruiz, and Andres Blanco as the primary middle-infield back-up. My assumption has been they would Rule 5 pick an outfielder or sign one, to fill out the bench. They could do the same with a middle-infield back up though, and simply count Ruf as their fifth outfielder. If they traded Asche, they would have room really for both positions to be filled yet. As is though, they have room for one or the other, most likely. I expect Darnell Sweeney to start the season in AAA, due to his existing options and rough go of it late last season.
  • Bullpen- Ken Giles has not been traded, and he's a lock. Luis Garcia, Elvis Araujo, and Jeanmar Gomez get to come in as the favorites for the other six spots. After that, it gets crowded, with Dalier Hinojosa and Hector Neris looking to hang onto spots, and Mario Hollands looking to reclaim one. Others in the mix will include righties A.J. Achter, Michael Mariot, and Dan Otero, and lefty James Russell. I would be less than shocked if the Phillies grabbed another reliever to look at between now and Spring Training.
My guess is that the Phillies will make two Rule 5 picks, and either sign or trade for another bench piece. It's possible they go get a starting pitcher yet, but it seems less likely, given their roster being at 38 of 40 spots full, and their possession of several very good prospect arms.

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