The 2016 Phillies are not the easiest roster to predict at this point. They have spent the off-season building up depth, and being committed to giving as many looks in 2016 as they can to players who might be part of the future puzzle. The Phillies don't expect to be a 90 win team in 2016, or probably even an 80 win team. They expect to find some players who will be on a future good team.
The Phillies will bring 53 players to Clearwater. No more than 40 (sort of) can leave with a Major League roster spot. Only 25 will get to go to Opening Day. The AAA team will have 25 spots waiting for worthy players. It will be a competitive camp.
The 25 Man Roster
The 25 man roster will consist of five starting pitchers, two catchers, at least four outfielders, at least six infielders, another bench spot, and seven relievers. Who will they be?
Catchers- The Phillies are bringing four catchers to camp, lead by veteran Carlos Ruiz and the guy who seemed to take his starting job as 2015 went, Cameron Rupp. Jorge Alfaro also comes to camp with a 40 man spot, but his chances of making the team are near zero. Veteran J.P. Arencibia comes to camp on a minor league deal, and figures to be the competition for Ruiz and Rupp. I see the chances for Arencibia as quite slim though, given the rather full 40 man roster the Phillies have. He would have to clearly outplay one or both current catchers, and even then I think the Phillies would only give him a spot if they could trade one of the incumbents. Bet on Rupp and Ruiz.
Infielders- You can virtually lock in that Maikel Franco will be the third baseman this season. You can virtually lock in that Freddy Galvis will at least start the season at shortstop. While I do think the Phillies will give Odubel Herrera a look at second base for the long-term, I tend to think he won't be there for Opening Day of this season, so I do think Cesar Hernandez will be there, especially because he is out of minor league options. It is my guess that Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf aren't stone-cold locks to make the team, but are very likely to platoon at first base. If that is all the case, the Phillies have one, possibly two spots left for bench infielders.
Outfielders- Odubel Herrera would start out the season as a lock to make the team regardless of position. I thought for a while that the talk of him playing some second base in the Spring meant he was going to move there. Given the current composition of the roster though, and what the Phillies need to see this year, that doesn't make sense. It makes more sense for him to stay in center, and let them evaluate Hernandez and Galvis a little bit longer, in light of J.P. Crawford's impending arrival to take the shortstop job. With that in mind, I'm guessing now that Herrera starts on Opening Day in center field. That means that 40 man roster-mate and prospect Roman Quinn is bound for the minors. That leaves the two corner outfield spots in the line-up, and you can pencil Aaron Altherr in as the likely right-fielder. This leaves Cody Asche, Peter Bourjos, and Tyler Goeddel to compete for left-field. While Goeddel seems likely to make the team, at least to me, I'd expect this really to be about Asche and Bourjos. In my view, playing Asche and hoping he plays well enough to increase his trade value is what makes sense.
The Bench- By virtue of saying Rupp and Ruiz are making the team, I have filled one of the five spots right there. By saying Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf are going to platoon at first, I've filled 40% of the bench before you can even look at them. If Asche and Bourjos end up sharing left-field, that is three. Tyler Goeddel, as a Rule 5 pick, has to make the team and stay all year to stay with the Phillies. Bet on that. That of course means that 4/5 of the bench is filled. Andres Blanco played well last year as a utility infielder. He has a major league contract and 40 man roster spot. The Phillies need someone to back up in the middle-infield this season. It would make complete sense then that Blanco has the upper hand against non-roster invitees Emmanuel Burriss, Ryan Jackson, and Angelys Nina. Darnell Sweeney would appear to be his real competition. The youngster didn't fare all that well after the Phillies got him in the Chase Utley trade, but he's versatile, young, and talented. He also has options though, and would benefit from regular starts in AAA. My guess is that Rupp/Ruiz, Howard/Ruf, Asche/Bourjos, Goeddel, and Blanco open the season on the bench. With that said, all the other candidates are intriguing in their own way, and might get lucky with a good Spring and a health issue somewhere.
Starting Pitchers- Currently, twelve pitchers are on the 40 man roster and primarily viewed as starting pitchers. Jesse Biddle and Matt Harrison are unlikely to compete in Spring Training, as Biddle will miss most (if not all) of the season after Tommy John Surgery, and Harrison has not been healthy in quite some time. Of the remaining ten, you can pencil in Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vincent Velasquez as the favorites. Brett Oberholtzer and Adam Morgan will be the primary competition, which David Buchanan and Alec Asher will get a look too. The rotation is quite righty heavy though, making one wonder if someone is heading to the bullpen amongst the five favorites. Severino Gonzalez will be pitching to convince the team he deserves a spot in the crowded AAA rotation. I could absolutely see someone being traded yet.
Relief Pitchers- The Phillies will bring 21 relief pitchers to camp, not counting Velasquez, or even other starters like Asher that could be considered for a conversion. They have just seven spots to hand out. Things are crowded.
On the 40 man roster are 2015 regulars Luis Garcia, Elvis Araujo, and Jeanmar Gomez. Also on the roster is veteran late-inning arm David Hernandez. These four would stand out as likely to make the Opening Day roster at least.
Seemingly unlikely to make the team would be non-roster invitees Greg Burke, Reinier Roibal, Gregory Infante, Frank Herrmann, and Chris Leroux. Also unlikely to break camp are less experienced 40 man members Jimmy Cordero, Colton Murray, Michael Mariot, and Edubray Ramos.
This would seem to leave eight relievers for three spots. On the 40 man roster you have two lefties, 2014 regular Mario Hollands, who missed 2015 with Tommy John surgery, and Rule 5 selection Daniel Stumpf, as well as non-roster invitee lefty James Russell. On the 40 man roster you have righties Dalier Hinojosa and Hector Neris, and non-roster invitees Ernesto Frieri, Andrew Bailey, and Edward Mujica. The Phillies could also consider Velasquez here. I would guess that Hollands has the initial edge amongst the lefties, if he looks anything like he did in early 2014. I would also guess that the Phillies are looking for a closer amongst their non-roster righties. I'd guess right now that Bailey leads that pack, if he's healthy, followed by Mujica and Frieri.
So i'm betting on the Phillies bringing a bullpen north of Bailey, Garcia, Araujo, Gomez, Hernandez, Hollands, and Mujica.
The 40 Man Roster
This means the Phillies will be optioning down a few players and freeing up a few spots. First, Biddle's spot will be opened because of his 60-Day DL stint. If Stumpf indeed doesn't win a bullpen spot, his spot will also open up. Harrison could be on the 60-Day DL as well, opening another spot. Either way, the Phillies would fill the two open slots with Bailey and Mujica.
The Phillies would be optioning down a number of 40 man members, at the moment. Jorge Alfaro is likely to be sent to Reading to catch. Roman Quinn will be in Lehigh Valley or Reading, manning center field. Darnell Sweeney seems likely to be the primary second baseman in AAA in the early going. Oberholtzer seems likely to start out at least in AAA, along with Morgan, Buchanan, and Asher. Severino Gonzalez will have to go somewhere, but i'm not sure there's room in AAA for him. Hinojosa, Neris, Mariot, Ramos, Cordero, and Murray all need to fit in a bullpen somewhere.
That would seem to leave the Phillies with about 39 spots on the current roster. They would leave themselves room for one player to be added when needed. The real question mark remains in the bullpen, where they have so many roster spots currently committed. Certainly if they don't pick two non-roster invitees there, it leaves them more space to work with in AAA, and on the roster. Health will obviously change their needs in Spring Training, and perhaps force that.
The IronPigs Roster
This is fairly close to impossible to predict at this point. It would seem that the IronPigs will get a nice collection of prospects though to work with, at least for a while. Their rotation will likely include some portion of Velasquez/Oberholtzer, Morgan, Buchanan, Asher, and Gonzalez, and probably prospects Thompson and Eflin as well. Roman Quinn and Darnell Sweeney seem likely to get optioned to here, and Nick Williams and Andrew Knapp seem likely to be in the AAA line-up at least to start. Obviously, whether right away or in a bit, J.P. Crawford will arrive in Allentown too. They have a boat-load of relievers to choose from, regardless of who the Phillies pick.
This roster will also have some interesting options from the non-roster pool, we hope. Burriss, Nina, and Jackson all are very compelling possibilities here. Arencibia would be a very good fit in AAA, working with a lot of younger arms. Obviously the sheer volume of relievers is hard to cut through, but some of them could fit well here. It's also worth noting that some guys are already on that roster. Ken Roberts, Joely Rodriguez, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, and Tommy Joseph are all former 40 man roster members, while Gabriel Lino is an interesting catcher to watch. This is far from being settled, but the competition for the Pigs roster is going to be pretty intense.
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