Championship Sunday- Your Guide to the Conference Title Games

Later on today, the top four teams in the NFL this season will meet for the right to play in Super Bowl 50. The top two seeds in the NFC, Carolina and Arizona, will meet in Charlotte in the biggest games of Carson Palmer and Cam Newton's lives. In the AFC, we get one more Brady vs. Manning Bowl in Denver, when New England seeks to repeat as AFC Champs against the 2014 champs, Denver.

What are the stories you should watch for? Here's my take:

1. Tom Brady is the best- so can he prove it again?- Let's stop the comparisons, even to Manning, because Touchdown Tommy is the man for his generation. He's won four Super Bowls, six AFC titles, and been in ten of these AFC title games. Today he adds to that legacy. Can he beat Manning in one more big game?
2. Can Larry Fitzgerald get back to the Super Bowl?- When Larry Fitzgerald goes into Canton, I'm hoping he does so as a Super Bowl champion. This is probably his best chance to do it before his career is done. Can he repeat his divisional round magic?
3. How will conditions be in Charlotte?- Charlotte missed the worst of superstorm Jonas. It still got some wintery weather, and it's not used to that. What will conditions be like?
4. Will Manning get it done?- Peyton Manning has stupid good stats in his career, except for the stat of championships. Despite quarterbacking many great teams, he has one Super Bowl title and three AFC titles. This could be it for him, and at home against New England, no less. 
5. Can Cam become elite?- Cam Newton is the MVP this season. The question is whether or not he can prove it. He won a title at Auburn, but the Super Bowl is another beast. He can take a leap forward with a win today.
6. Which great NFC Defense gets it done?- Whether you want to talk about Arizona or Carolina, these teams play "man" football. These defenses bring it each week. Who brings it today?
7. How awesome is Denver's defense?- Denver had the best defense in football this season. Today, they face Tom Brady for a title. If they win, we'll remember them for being that good. If not? They were okay.
8. Can anyone guard Gronk?- Denver's defense is that good, but Gronk isn't a human-being. Can they even slow him down?
9. Carson Palmer goes for vindication- Carson Palmer developed a reputation for not being able to win the big ones. Then he won a big one last week. If he wins today, he silences a lot of critics of his NFL career.
10. Bill Belichick- best ever?- No other coach that is coaching today has a resume like Belichick. If he wins today, it's just another win for him, sort of. With a win today, he'll be coaching in his tenth Super Bowl in two weeks, or one-fifth of them all. That's kind of ridiculous.

My picks today? Neither Carolina or Arizona convinced me last week. I thought Carolina was the best team in the league through twelve games, and I've felt the same about Arizona since. The game's in Carolina though, which makes it interesting. I'm taking Carolina 24-20, a bit of reversal for myself, but home field is big here.

I'm a huge Brady fan, but not a Manning fan at all. Setting that aside, it doesn't seem like Denver should have won the head-to-head game, or won home field, but somehow they did. That somehow was their defense. So, do I do the unthinkable and bet against Brady and Belichick, or bet against the best defense in the game, at home? I've got Denver 20-17.

I'm actually fine with either NFC team, from a point of personal preference. In the AFC, I'm pulling for New England to crush them.

Looking Good, or Not Long for the Road- The NFL Playoffs are Coming

Someone is going to win Super Bowl L. It might be Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, Washington, Seattle, or Minnesota. It also might be New England, Denver, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City, the New York Jets, Pittsburgh, or Indianapolis. That's the best we can know.

Going into week 17 in the NFC, I don't think the contenders should shock you. I feel the best about Arizona right now, who is 13-2 and reeling off statement victories. Carolina is 14-1, and has been the best team for most of the year, and Cam Newton has played like an MVP. Seattle is "only" 9-6 and on the way to the Wild Card, but the two-time defending NFC Champs are white-hot right now. Those three teams are the class of the field for me. You can't count out Aaron Rodgers, because he's Aaron Rodgers, so Green Bay has a shot. Washington is playing really well right now, and won't be an easy out. Minnesota has had an outstanding, surprising year. Right now though, I'd take Arizona to win.

In the AFC, there's more room for error. I like New England with home-field, because Tom Brady is still throwing the ball for them, and because Gronk is my runner-up pick for MVP, if the award was actually all about value. Denver did beat the Pats this season, and their defense is good enough to win, but I don't see Osweiler winning in New England in January. Cincinnati seemed real, but Dalton's injury scares me off, as does the fact that he can't play on Wild Card Weekend. Houston has recovered nicely from a bad start, but won't win the AFC. Kansas City is on fire, and might be the scariest team to see in the post-season. If the Jets win against Buffalo and get in, they won't be easy to beat, but I don't see them winning three in a row to reach the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh needs a win and a Buffalo upset of the Jets to get in, but if they do, watch out. It wouldn't seem crazy to me if you said Pittsburgh gets in, and they and Kansas City both eliminate division champs in the Wild Card round. I like New England to edge either of them, or Denver, if they wrap up home field though.

Who do I like to win the Super Bowl right now? Arizona. I like them to beat New England. I like them to beat Carolina in the NFC title game, after they beat Green Bay, and Carolina edges out Seattle in a thriller. I like New England to beat Pittsburgh/New York in the divisional round, and Kansas City to beat Denver. I like New England to edge out Kansas City in the AFC title game.

All of this is tentative, of course. I'll make final picks after Week 17.

Thanksgiving Football Predictions

It's Thanksgiving. That means football. Yes, it means football first. I know there's a holiday and all, but it's all about the pigskin. Without any delay, my football picks-

• Easton vs. Phillipsburg- If you read no further, that's fine, because this is what matters today. It's game #109 in the historic high school rivalry that has went on over a century and been featured on ESPN. Since 1915, the game has been played on Thanksgiving, pitting two of the most historic programs in their states. Phillipsburg is #1 in wins in New Jersey history. Easton is #2 in Pennsylvania, and in the top ten in the nation. This year Easton is 8-4, but coming off of a brutal playoff loss to Parkland. Phillipsburg is 9-1 and will play against New Jersey's #1 team, Middletown South next week. On paper, the Liners are favored to win their second straight, and I've pretty much thought they would since last weekend. I'm having a bit of second thoughts though. The favorites are never really favored in this game, and many years the team that is done in playoffs comes out and plays a better game in this one. If this game was played last week, i'd have picked Phillipsburg by two scores. Today? Easton 24-14
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions- The Eagles have to win this game. At 4-6, things could get ugly if they do not win this game. If they win, they go to 1/2 game back in the division. On the other side, the 3-7 Lions have won three straight, and are playing good football right now. The Eagles are not. On a short week, playing poorly, I don't like the match-up much. Yes, the Eagles won last Thanksgiving. They've stunk ever since. The Eagles may need this one, but I doubt they get it. Detroit 24-20
• Northampton vs. Catasauqua- This is the most under-appreciated rivalry in the Lehigh Valley. In just a few short years, they will be at 100 games too. They don't get the ESPN games and local media coverage, but these two schools have built a neat little rivalry. In recent years, at least since 2008, Northampton hasn't been so good in the Lehigh Valley/Eastern Pennsylvania Conference. Catty plays in the smaller school Colonial League, and they have their good and bad years there. Almost every year, the bigger Northampton is still favored. This year, both schools had a tough season, and have a shot to redeem themselves tomorrow. Northampton is always the favorite in this one, unless Catty is great. Catty is not great. Northampton 24-7
• Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys- Are the Panthers really this good? Yes. You don't go 10-0 in the NFL and not be that good. They are the real deal. Are they going to go 16-0? Not likely. Is a short week normally bad for Tony Romo at this age? Yes, but he had two months off before last Sunday. This game is in Dallas, and last Thanksgiving they were humiliated. They have to win this game to stay in playoff contention really. Dallas 28-24
• Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears- This is an old, historic rivalry game that belongs on Thanksgiving night.While this year the Packers are a lot better than their neighbors from the south, you never know when these teams play. The truth though is that Green Bay is retiring Brett Favre's number,  they're a better team, and they have something to play for. Gotta take the Pack. Green Bay 31-10

Week 11 Football Predictions

Last week I went 15-3 on my high school predictions. I'm 135-36 on the season, which is my final number for the regular season. Here's my predictions for week eleven.

• Wyoming Valley West 35 Nazareth 28
• Liberty 49 Stroudsburg 28
• Easton 21 Freedom 14
• Parkland 42 Delaware Valley 7
• Lehighton 28 Blue Mt. 14
• Bethlehem Catholic 35 Saucon Valley 21
• Notre Dame 35 North Schuylkill 14
• Northwestern 28 Salisbury 21
• Tri-Valley 28 Williams Valley 14
• Marian Catholic 28 Mahanoy Valley 21
• Northampton 21 Pope John Paul II 7
• Palisades 28 Meyers 21
• Southern Lehigh 28 Jim Thorpe 21
• Central Catholic 35 Valley View 7
• Emmaus 28 Williamsport 7
• Pleasant Valley 35 Reading 14
• Warren Hills 21 Old Tappan 14
• Phillipsburg 28 Woodbridge 7
• Belvidere 21 Roselle Park 14

I went 6-1 on college games last week, and i'm 55-13 on the season. For week eleven, my picks are:

• Notre Dame 45 Wake Forest 10
• Temple 24 South Florida 17
• Pitt 24 Duke 21
• Nebraska 27 Rutgers 14
• Lehigh 27 Colgate 21
• Moravian 21 Muhlenberg 14

I went a pedestrian 7-6 on NFL games this past week, and I'm just 77-56 on the season. My week ten predictions are:

• Jets 24 Bills 21
• Ravens 21 Jaguars 17
• Steelers 17 Browns 14
• Panthers 27 Titans 14
• Rams 31 Bears 10
• Buccaneers 24 Cowboys 21
• Packers 31 Lions 17
• Eagles 24 Dolphins 20
• Saints 35 Redskins 31
• Vikings 28 Raiders 24
• Broncos 31 Chiefs 10
• Patriots 31 Giants 28
• Seahawks 28 Cardinals 27
• Bengals 35 Texans 14

Last week I went 28-10. On the season, i'm 267-105.

Week Ten Football Predictions

It's the tenth week of competitive football in 2015. I guess it's really almost Winter. It's also November, rivalry month. This weekend is senior night at Easton and Moravian. It's Eagles-Cowboys II week. In other words, it's a great weekend to be in the Lehigh Valley to watch football. I went 6-1 last week on college games, and i'm 49-12 on the season. I went a pedestrian 7-7 on pro games last week, and i'm 70-50 on the season. I went 12-5 on high school games, and i'm 120-33 on the season. For the week I was 25-13. On the season i'm 239-95.

College

• Notre Dame 27 Pitt 24
• Northwestern 20 Penn State 17
• Temple 34 SMU 13
• Michigan 45 Rutgers 10
• Holy Cross 24 Lehigh 21
• Colgate 38 Lafayette 10
• Moravian 28 Juniata 7

NFL

• Bengals 37 Browns 14
• Bills 24 Dolphins 21
• Packers 31 Panthers 28
• Jets 21 Jaguars 17
• Rams 27 Vikings 21
• Patriots 42 Redskins 24
• Saints 49 Titans 14
• Steelers 31 Raiders 21
• Giants 42 Buccaneers 21
• Falcons 17 49ers 3
• Broncos 31 Colts 3
• Eagles 24 Cowboys 14
• Chargers 37 Bears 21

High School

• Easton 35 Nazareth 28
• Liberty 24 Freedom 21
• Parkland 49 Emmaus 21
• Whitehall 42 Northampton 14
• East Stroudsburg North 21 East Stroudsburg South 7
• Stroudsburg 42 Pleasant Valley 14
• Pocono Mt. West 42 Pocono Mt. East 35
• Dieruff 28 Allen 7
• Bethlehem Catholic 35 Central Catholic 21
• Notre Dame 49 Wilson 0
• Pen Argyl 14 Bangor 7
• Saucon Valley 42 Palisades 14
• Northern Lehigh 28 Palmerton 14
• Northwestern 42 Catasauqua 7
• Southern Lehigh 28 Salisbury 21
• Phillipsburg 42 Scotch Plains 7
• Warren Hills 28 Hackettstown 21
• Belvidere 21 Bound Brook 7

Week Nine Predictions

The NFL is reaching the mid-point, college football is in the stretch run, and high school football is down to it's last two weeks. The weather is about to get cold-cold, not just cold, and the football is getting hot. Let's get to this week's picks.

High School

• Easton 28 Freedom 21
• Parkland 38 Nazareth 21
• Stroudsburg 42 Northampton 14
• Liberty 35 Central Catholic 21
• Bethlehem Catholic 49 Allen 7
• Dieruff 28 East Stroudsburg South 7
• Whitehall 28 Emmaus 21
• East Stroudsburg North 35 Pocono Mt. West 7
• Pleasant Valley 28 Pocono Mt. East 0
• Notre Dame 35 Saucon Valley 28
• Southern Lehigh 42 Catasauqua 7
• Northwestern 35 Northern Lehigh 28
• Salisbury 28 Palmerton 14
• Wilson 28 Bangor 7
• Palisades 35 Pen Argyl 7
• Belvidere 28 Arthur L. Johnson 0
• Warren Hills 28 Scotch Plains 21

College

• Pitt 28 UNC 24
• Penn State 31 Illinois 21
• Notre Dame 31 Temple 17
• Wisconsin 42 Rutgers 17
• Bucknell 38 Lafayette 7
• Lehigh 24 Georgetown 21
• Moravian 28 Gettysburg 14

NFL

• Patriots 31 Dolphins 21
• Chiefs 20 Lions 17
• Chargers 31 Ravens 21
• Vikings 24 Bears 10
• Cardinals 17 Browns 10
• Steelers 34 Bengals 31
• Titans 13 Texans 10
• Giants 24 Saints 21
• Rams 27 49ers 3
• Falcons 17 Buccaneers 10
• Jets 24 Raiders 17
• Seahawks 24 Cowboys 10
• Packers 27 Broncos 21
• Panthers 24 Colts 14

What We Learned, Week Eight of Football

What we learned last week-

• The Eagles are who they are. They are not a contender to defeat teams like Carolina, Green Bay, or Atlanta. Cam Newton threw three interceptions, the defense played relatively well, and yet they could not win. At some point you accept reality.
• Football is alive in New York. Both teams have winning records, and the Giants are back in first. The Jets look like the better team, but the Patriots are in the way.
• I went 8-6 on the week, and I'm 63-43 in NFL games this year. I'm struggling.
• Temple gets to go into the Notre Dame game undefeated and the center of attention. Good for them. It's a long time coming.
• Penn State is bowl bound. Given that they aren't a national title or Big Ten title contender, the season is a success now, I guess.
• Pitt is 6-1. They are quietly a really good team. Their one loss was to Iowa, who is really, really good.
• I went 6-1 on college games this week, and I'm 43-11 on the year.
• I've been really good at picking high school games, but I got Easton wrong. They absolutely had to beat Liberty to have a shot at the playoffs. They did it easily. I thought they'd get crushed. Now they'll face Freedom, who just lost their first game. Should be interesting.
• It's safe to call Parkland the best team in the area.
• Phillipsburg still has one loss. This season is somewhat like last season, so far for them.
• I went 13-5 this week on high school games, my worst week yet. I'm 108-28 on the season though.
• My week record was 27-12. My season record is 214-82.

Eighth Week of Competitive Football Predictions

Through seven weeks of predictions, I have a 187-70 record. That's not bad, but the distribution is mediocre. I'm 95-23 on picking high school games and 37-10 picking college games. Those are good records. My NFL record is just 55-37 through six weeks, and I was a pedestrian 8-6 this season. One of the issues is that normal NFL trends aren't holding up so far this year- it's a strange football season. Just 10 teams have a winning record, and 14 are at .500 or above. A whopping 18 teams have a bad record right now. Some teams- I'm looking at you Seattle and Baltimore- have been huge disappointments. Teams like Kansas City, San Diego, and Detroit have been impossible to pick right. So, i'm struggling.

Anyway, here's this week's picks:

NFL

• Seattle 24 San Francisco 20
• Buffalo 27 Jacksonville 14
• Detroit 27 Minnesota 21
• Indianapolis 31 New Orleans 24
• Pittsburgh 17 Kansas City 10
• Miami 17 Houston 7
• New England 31 New York Jets 10
• St. Louis 27 Cleveland 10
• Atlanta 31 Tennessee 14
• Washington 17 Tampa Bay 14
• San Diego 34 Oakland 17
• New York 27 Dallas 21
• Philadelphia 27 Carolina 24
• Arizona 24 Baltimore 17

Lots of dangerous games in this bunch. There are too many teams I can't figure out. I keep waiting for them to get it together, and they don't.

College

• Temple 27 East Carolina 20
• Pittsburgh 34 Syracuse 20
• Penn State 24 Maryland 20
• Ohio State 45 Rutgers 14
• Lehigh 24 Fordham 21
• Holy Cross 42 Lafayette 10
• Moravian 27 Franklin & Marshall 14

Not many gimmes to pick. Temple keeps winning, but they scare me. Pitt looks good now, but scared me earlier. Penn State could definitely make me look bad. Just a tough week to pick.

High School

• Liberty 35 Easton 14
• Parkland 28 Freedom 21
• Bethlehem Catholic 42 Stroudsburg 35
• Nazareth 42 Whitehall 21
• Central Catholic 35 Northampton 14
• Emmaus 35 Pocono Mt. East 14
• East Stroudsburg South 21 Allen 7
• Pocono Mt. West 21 Dieruff 14
• Pleasant Valley 21 East Stroudsburg North 20
• Saucon Valley 63 Bangor 0
• Salisbury 28 Catasauqua 0
• Southern Lehigh 28 Northern Lehigh 21
• Northwestern 35 Palmerton 7
• Notre Dame 35 Palisades 14
• Wilson 21 Pen Argyl 14
• Belvidere 28 Pingry 21
• Phillipsburg 28 Hunterdon Central 27
• Warren Hills 21 Somerville 14

This should be an interesting week.