My Thoughts on the 12/15 GOP Debate

Not his finest night

Last night was the final GOP Presidential debate of 2015. That's the blessing. The curse is that we still had to sit through this, and the next two in 2016, before some of these guys have to start dropping out after Iowa on February 1st. This disgraceful mix of fear-mongering and ignorance must look utterly ridiculous to most. To me, it was an embarrassment to our country.

My thoughts-

• You know it's bad when a xenophobic ego-maniac like Donald Trump out-performs most of the stage, but that's exactly what happened. The rest of the field seemed mostly afraid to take him on, and he performed like someone protecting a lead. His bizarre mix of defending his anti-Islamic and anti-immigrant messages, boasting about the greatness he will bring our country, bashing the neo-cons, and committing to the Republican Party probably will add up to a performance that keeps him on top.
• The other "winner," if you will, was Chris Christie. It was classic bully-version Christie, which is what the Republicans want to see. While he played his tough-guy act well, the silver-lining for all sane people is that he did say he would shoot a Russian plane down over Syria- a statement that makes him sound reckless to any average voter (or at least it should).
• Rand Paul is still the arrogant jerk I always viewed him as, but  I actually felt for him a little bit last night- he didn't belong on that stage. He doesn't seem to get even yet that his isolationist views and calls for military spending cuts is a loser in that room. He's out of place and out of touch, even with his own party.
• Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio decided that last night was fight night, and Cruz made Rubio look like the light-weight that he is. Rubio's feeble attempt to distinguish himself from the one issue he had right, immigration reform, got taken apart by an eager Cruz. I don't know that Cruz had a great night with people outside of his own base, but he had a great night at beating up Rubio. I'd expect Cruz's momentum to continue.
• Jeb Bush finally showed some fight, both with Donald Trump and anyone else. The shame for Jeb is that it's probably too late. He's not in the right position to even pick up the pieces if Trump crashes. The presence of Christie and Rubio ahead of him in New Hampshire halts any chance there is for him to come through and actually win this thing. If he can't change that, he's no more relevant that Governor Kasich.
• Ben Carson became less and less relevant as the night went, while Carly Fiorina became more and more desperate and angry. I don't think either impressed anyone but their own supporters. 
• Governor Kasich showed up. That was his highlight.

At this point, I expect Iowa to be a fight between Cruz and Trump, and New Hampshire to ultimately come down to Trump and Christie. I think you'll see the remaining Kasich and Bush supporters in New Hampshire, and even some Rubio ones, move over to Christie in the closing weeks. In Iowa, I think we'll see Huckabee and Santorum's remaining hard-liners move over to Cruz, and he will win there. Ultimately we need to see what's happening in South Carolina and Nevada to get a good feel for who will win this nomination.