The Main Event in the Lehigh Valley?

Incumbent State House members haven't been losing re-elections in the Lehigh Valley. In all the years I've been around, I've never seen an incumbent lose a general election for their seat. I've seen them lose primaries, I've seen seats flip because of the incumbent leaving. I haven't seen them just lose. The last time that actually went on around here was back in 1994, and that was a generational shift. One of the people to "wave in" that year was Republican Julie Harhart, in the 183rd district. Now, she's retiring.

This is a real swing seat, and it's open. Mitt Romney apparently carried it (I hear) by a point or so, but the overall Democratic performance index for the seat is above 50%. Amongst the towns in the seat are Northampton, parts of Whitehall and South Whitehall, and Lehigh Township. Democrats rack up their votes in Northampton and Whitehall, while Republicans run up their numbers in Lehigh Township and Moore Township. It's actually a very competitive seat, when incumbency advantages are removed.

The Republicans have a crowded field of three- Cindy Miller, Marc Grammes, and Michael Molovinsky are running. Young Democrat Doug Waterman has announced his candidacy, and a Whitehall Commissioner is going to enter, but hasn't yet (I'm not breaking their name here). If the Democrats don't destroy themselves in the primary, they have a very decent chance against this quite conservative Republican field in a Presidential campaign. This election will probably be one of the most competitive in the Lehigh Valley in a long time.