My Iowa Republican Forecast

Donald Trump is filling every venue he uses in Iowa. He's drawing thousands of people to his events. He's clearly the candidate with the energy and enthusiasm in the Republican field in Iowa at this point. Ted Cruz is focusing on more "traditional" Evangelical audiences, and Marco Rubio and others are simply finding some spots for them to compete and try to surprise.

We have seen this before though on both sides. Huge crowds don't necessarily mean a better caucus performance, as sometimes it can be hard to turn out those people on caucus night. The reality is that those people all have to show up Monday night, on time, and go through the process. The Republican process is less quirky than the Democratic one, but it still requires organization to turn people out. Ultimately, the strength of Team Trump on the ground will decide this race.

I don't think Ted Cruz is in good shape. That he's turning to his original base in the closing days tells me he doesn't have momentum anymore. I also don't really think anyone else, including Marco Rubio, is in great shape to catch him. Even though Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum has won the last two caucuses, neither seems poised to take off next Monday and challenge again, and both could be done. Rand Paul could be in a position to surprise us Monday, as he has a pretty decent organization there, but he never really caught fire either. No one else seems like they are even really relevant.

I'm going to say Trump is the guy to beat Monday. All he has to do is turn out a large chunk of his crowds, and he should win Iowa. Cruz certainly does have a shot to win, but he also has a shot to disappoint and fall on his face. Paul and Rubio are the other two I'm watching closely, with Bush, Huckabee, and Santorum all likely to show up with some degree of support. Huckabee and Santorum's success or lack thereof will either kill or boost Cruz, while any caucus goers for Bush do a little more to kill off Rubio. A Trump win may put the nomination within his reach, given his New Hampshire lead. A Cruz win means he has a real shot to win the nomination. Rubio needs a strong third to boost him to a clear second or better in New Hampshire. Paul could revive his efforts with a third place finish. The stakes are high, but knowing that Trump did hire some solid Iowa operatives to do his caucus effort, I'd bet on his chances on Monday.