Sunday, January 24, 2016

The Bernie as Obama Comparison is Tired

It's a week out from the Iowa Caucus. A candidate who has the support of his party's liberal base, a well organized ground game in Iowa, and the support of the youth vote is possibly surging past Hillary Clinton, despite her establishment support and Des Moines Register endorsement. Is it 2008? Is it Barack Obama? No to both. It's Bernie Sanders, and his supporters want you to see the similarities.

The problem is that Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama. Forget Hillary for a minute, who is still Hillary, and let's focus on Bernie. Bernie is very different from Barack Obama. 2016 is very different from 2008. There are many things to consider-

  • Despite being the grassroots favorite in 2008, it's important to note that President Obama fought his way up through the Chicago political establishment to become U.S. Senator, while Bernie Sanders has consistently turned away the Democratic establishment in Vermont on his way to being a U.S. Senator. These guys have very different political identities.
  • President Obama was a unique, "first of his type" candidate as the eventual first African-American President. Bernie is hardly the first white guy, Senator to run to the left of the establishment pick. We've had Eugene McCarthy, George McGovern, Bill Bradley and others. Some won. Some lost.
  • Yes, Republicans have called Barack Obama a socialist, communist, usurper, and all other kinds of "political slurs." President Obama is not a socialist, or any of those other things though. We can debate whether or not Bernie Sanders is, or whether or not it's a good or bad thing, but he says he's a Socialist. Republicans will do what they may with that. It's more plausible that the public will believe their characterization, given his embrace of it.
  • In 2008, most of the advantages were swinging the Democrats way heading into that election. In 2016, we could face a recession, serious unrest in the Middle East, global market fears, and many domestic fights that don't necessarily swing our way.
  • Barack Obama was from neighboring Illinois, and was decently well known to Iowans. He also could send loyalists into Iowa to campaign for him. Bernie Sanders does not enjoy these advantages in Iowa. He does in New Hampshire though.
  • In 2008, the caucus was held while colleges were not in session, making it much more difficult for President Obama to turn out college students. He did it though. It actually should be somewhat easier for Bernie to make good on his advantage with youth, as school will be back in session.
  • The 2008 race had six Democrats, with three who had a shot to win by caucus night. In 2016, there are just three Democrats running, with just two viable candidates to win. The race is shaped different.
  • President Obama had a much more modest domestic agenda in 2008 than Bernie Sanders does today. He wasn't proposing "Medicare for all," free college education, a major increase in the minimum wage, or many of the other expensive items in Bernie's agenda. President Obama did have a very aggressive foreign policy agenda, but that caucus was largely contested on those grounds.
I could continue to go on and on. Yes, both were the insurgent at the time, and both were running against Hillary Clinton. That's about the end of the similarities. Bernie Sanders candidacy is entirely his own, and assuming he can do the same things Barack Obama did eight years ago ignores the obvious differences.

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