Why I Think Bernie Will Win Iowa, Why It's No Lock, and Why It Might Not Matter

Iowa Caucus going Democrats just aren't enamored with Hillary Clinton. She may or may not win them in the end, this time, but eight years ago they sank her candidacy with a third place finish. It appeared that she was safely on her way to victory this time, but now that's not so. The Des Moines Register's last poll showed her lead all the way down to 2%, putting her in danger of losing again. This contest continues to be a problem for her.

Hillary Clinton's lead is down to 42-40% in the DMR Poll, the one poll I'd typically bet on in Iowa. The reason it got closer was a drop in support for Clinton, not a rise in support for Bernie. Even so, Bernie seems to have the momentum out there, not Hillary. If this seems to be 2008 all over again to you, it might be. That's also no lock. This movement in the race means one of two things will happen: Either momentum will carry Bernie to victory or voters who went undecided will decide he's not a viable choice to lead the party forward.

I've worked in Iowa twice, including on a caucus, and have a few theories about the state of the race with six days left. Here are my thoughts:

I think Bernie Sanders will win Iowa
My guess is that momentum leaning his way will carry Bernie Sanders to a victory. The race is very close, and while much has been made that his campaign is not Obama's, he's still running a very solid Iowa operation. Martin O'Malley is unlikely to be viable in much of the state, and so his supporters will get a second choice on caucus night. In the only polling on that subject that i've seen, Bernie leads big. If the race remains very close, that might just decide the caucus. If the caucus is just made up of people who caucused before, Bernie is in trouble, but the "enthusiasm gap" leans his way, and Hillary is scrambling to close it. Demographics and ideology also lean his way- the state is largely white, and the caucus-goers are more liberal than the population at-large. Bernie is also polling very strong in delegate-rich Eastern Iowa, much like President Obama did.

All of this ads up to my guess right now- Bernie will win, close, in Iowa. He won't crush her, I don't think, and it may not be that he ends up actually winning Iowa once they get to state convention, but for now he'll be up.

It's Not a Lock Though
Hillary isn't behaving like she's dead in Iowa. Lena Dunham, Demi Lovato, and Bill Clinton aren't surrogates you send into a state you're toast in. Sure, it's better for her if she wins there, so of course she should try, but if she were out of it, you'd see her sending resources elsewhere.

Here's the alternative scenario to Bernie's momentum carrying him to victory in Iowa- he never really had a chance. The race got close because Clinton supporters in Iowa moved back to undecided. They haven't been with Bernie yet. Perhaps him getting close, and therefore being viewed more seriously, will convince Iowans that he's not worth the chance. Perhaps they will come home to her in the closing weeks, and stick with the "safe" pick. It would be a break from the 2004 and 2008 contests, where momentum carried the day, but it wouldn't be outlandish to think it could happen.

Winning Iowa Might Not Matter
In 2004, a victory in Iowa shot John Kerry from the middle of the pack nationally to the nomination. in 2008, President Obama's Iowa victory was the key in spring-boarding him to the nomination. In 2016, Bernie Sanders may not be in the same position. President Obama's victory in Iowa was such a big deal in no small part because it defied all history on demographic politics to see an African-American Presidential candidate win in such a white state. For many reasons that have been discussed, Bernie winning in such a white state is not as big of a deal. Iowa only will have a dramatic impact on the race if Hillary wins it- because it will probably end the nomination fight, for all intents and purposes.

Bernie Sanders ultimately needs to follow a similar path to John Kerry's 2004 path, sweeping Iowa and New Hampshire to have any kind of shot at the victory. Even then, Clinton holds a substantial lead in national polling, and a particularly strong lead amongst African-American voters who will be key in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday. Even as Bernie's "surge" has been ongoing over this past month, it hasn't lead him to better numbers amongst this key demographic yet. If he's losing amongst African-Americans, Latinos, and other key groups within the party, he's not going to be the nominee without narrowing the margins. That's particularly key when you think about Nevada, South Carolina, and the "SEC States" that will vote on Super Tuesday.

Finally, there is the ace-in-the-hole of all of this- I think President Obama wants Hillary Clinton to be the nominee. If Hillary can simply hold on in either Nevada, South Carolina, or both, I think it's entirely possible that he will endorse her. That would be a substantial blow to Bernie's chances of winning the nomination.

Bernie has to win Iowa, and New Hampshire, to win the nomination. Even if he does that though, he still would be an underdog to win. I would predict a Sanders victory in Iowa, but I'd also argue that this isn't that crucial to the end result, ultimately.