It's Trump's to Win, But...

Donald Trump should win Iowa tomorrow. He has a 5% lead. He's leading nationally. He's getting all the coverage. He's clearly the candidate surging late in Iowa. In short, him losing would be a real surprise.

It might happen though. Donald Trump may very well have 28% support, but is that going to show up? Can he get them to the Iowa Caucus? If he does, are his precinct captains good enough at this to keep them together? Sure, the Republican process is easier than the Democratic process, but it's still not a primary election.

Trump should win. Ted Cruz has an organized following though. Marco Rubio and Ben Carson do too. I would be surprised if Trump loses obviously, but is he as organized as they are? If he is, tomorrow night will be a coronation. If he isn't, someone else will win Iowa in a shocker.