Time to Take a Potential Nominee Bernie Sanders Seriously

Bernie Sanders might win the Iowa Caucus. He should win New Hampshire. If he does that, he might be the nominee of the Democratic Party for President. I don't know many people who are Democrats who dislike Bernie, particularly on his positions, which mostly fit with the views of rank-and-file Democrats, me included. Bernie is right about campaign finance reform, he's right (in theory) about Wall Street, he's right about wages, and he's right about the issues facing the middle class. He has a great voting record. He's a true progressive champion of the cause, and in that sense he'd make a great nominee for the Democratic Party. Right?

Well, not so fast. Bernie has a very good record and has run a very good race, but the nominee of the Democratic Party has to win, and govern after they win. That's the point here. Supreme Court judges, Obama-era legislation and regulations, who will be in our cabinet, and who will craft budgets that will effect us for decades- that's what is at stake here. Presidential elections are not about making primary voters "feel good," or "sleep better," they are about winning. There are real world consequences to who we pick to represent our party, and we should face them. There are two real questions here- can nominee Bernie Sanders win the election, and can he govern if he does? That is what matters here.

Bernie Sanders does have an argument for his ability to win. We did this eight years ago, and Clinton supporters at the time said they had doubts about President Obama, and he did it. Sanders polls better (right now) than Hillary Clinton in head-to-head match-ups against the Republicans. He has less "baggage" with the public. His principled positions are straight forward, and the public likes that. The activists support him.

Let's look at the other side of this coin though. He polls well right now, but right now he's not taking Republican attacks. Sanders, in fact, is enjoyed help from the RNC, who actually sent out talking points re-buffing Hillary Clinton's attacks on him after Sunday's debate. That won't hold once he's the nominee. He's a self-described socialist, which they will turn into a Communist, trying to tie him to ugly images of North Korea, Cuba, and the old Soviet Union. Sanders is primarily dovish on foreign policy, and the Republicans will air ads of ISIS beheading people and committing atrocities in an effort to drive home the point that Sanders is too weak to protect us from the threats. They will put out inflated price-tags on his plans for universal health care, student loans, and public works, and they will accuse him of wanting massive tax hikes across the board, which will not poll well. This is just a small taste of what they will say, and we already know from the start that their voters will buy into it. There's at least a decent chance that independents will buy into it too, especially because it is new to them. Sanders has disavowed Super-PACs and other ways for him to compete against the Republican noise machine, that will seek to define him no sooner than he defeats Hillary Clinton.

So can he survive it? Should we believe in his strengths, or his weaknesses? Well, national elections are won one of two ways- you either win over the "swing" voters, or you inspire your base and turn out more of them. Let's be clear, Sanders message is to the base, not the swing voters. With that in mind, the question is, can he increase his base? I have my doubts. First off, the "white liberal activist" crowd, or as the GOP used to call them, "Latte-sipping liberals," have been the backbone of Bernie's base, and they always show up. Can Sanders motivate and turn out demographic groups in our base that have less consistent voting records- African-Americans, Hispanics, young people- the way Barack Obama did? Polling suggests he's only strong amongst the young people in that bracket. Therefore I'm not sure he can expand the electorate to the level he needs to. There are also questions about his temperament, and how he would hold up under the microscope of general election media coverage, some of which come from those who have covered him. Obviously he still has time to prove me wrong, but right now I'd be worried. It's at best a jump ball on whether or not he can win the election, and I lean towards no, at this point.

So then, question two- can he govern. Let's assume he does win for a second. Can he get anything done. The Senate, regardless of who leads it, is unlikely to have 60 Democrats willing to back a very progressive agenda. The House is unlikely to turn Democratic in 2016. Will that Congress pass Medicare for all, major reforms to higher education, massive infrastructure spending, and some of the other further left ideas in Sanders' platform? Will the next Congress pass things well to the left of President Obama's initiatives that barely or didn't pass in 2009-2010, when the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress? That seems unlikely to me. Beyond that though, how will Sanders play to some of our allies and enemies in the world? How will his foreign policy views play in Europe? How about in Israel or Saudi Arabia? South Korea? These are legitimate concerns to consider.

This is not to be taken as comment on Hillary Clinton, who I will similarly put under the microscope soon. This is an evaluation on Bernie Sanders, the actual candidate. I think he's a great Senator. I think he'd have a shot of winning the election even, particularly in a race against a polar-opposite like Trump or Cruz. I have my concerns about Bernie's candidacy though. He's run a wonderful race, and his staff deserves a lot of credit for getting him to the point of a serious look, as does he. We have no reached a point though in this race where it's time to take Bernie Sanders more seriously than clearly his opposition did, and to make sure we know what we're getting with him as a nominee for President.