Hillary's Iowa Lead, and the Final Outcome

Now that the final Iowa Poll is out from the Des Moines Register, I think it is fair to say that Hillary has a narrow lead in the race for President. The previous Iowa Poll had Hillary up 42-40%, a narrow lead with a month to go that made me believe that Bernie Sanders was going to simply blow by her and win Iowa, relatively close. That a few weeks later, we're looking at a 45-42% Hillary lead means that never managed to happen. My prediction that Bernie would win isn't necessarily obsolete, but it's less likely. The Iowa Poll has a great record of nailing the final results in the caucus, and they continue to show Hillary leading, which at least should give pause to those who see a 2008 repeat.

The bottom line out of that poll is that the race stabilized, her fall stopped, and this race is in the hands of a hand full of caucus-goers. Hillary Clinton is now at 45%, and leading, but that is not 50%, and that does not show me how it will equate out into caucus delegates. On the one hand, she probably leads, even after second choicers decide. On the other hand, 10% are still undecided, and the race is well within range for them to decide the election.

Let's look at several factors that are still out there on this race:

• O'Malley's 3% in the poll represents a number so low that he's unlikely to win many delegates. In every caucus site in the state, you have to reach a 15% minimum to win delegates and remain viable. When you don't reach that point, you have to make a second choice. In the only polling on this that I have seen, Bernie leads Hillary by a 2:1 margin. If that is the final outcome, you can add 2% to Bernie and 1% to Hillary, which would make the race 46-44%. In other words, it's a significant group, in a close race, however this alone probably won't change the caucus. Bernie would still need more than that to win. Bottom line for Martin O'Malley though is that I'd be surprised if his 3% in the poll brings him 3% of the delegates won.
• If we assume that about one in ten Democrats are undecided, as this poll shows, this is where the race is likely to be decided. Again though, if Hillary in fact does have a 2-3% lead going into this vote, Bernie will have to win this group significantly. A 60-40% victory amongst the undecideds may get him a victory, but even at that level it's no lock. Bernie's likely going to need a huge number amongst these people, people who haven't been won over by anyone yet. I do assume he will at least win these people though, as I am not sure what new information about Hillary Clinton is going to change someone's mind at this point.
• So what about the "Benedict Arnold" vote, or the people who will change their mind? Amongst Hillary's supporters, 83% have made up their mind. Amongst Bernie's supporters, 69% won't change. In other words, this isn't likely to be Bernie's pathway to victory.
• Hillary leads amongst experienced caucus-goers, while Bernie leads amongst people who say they will "probably" go. The first time caucus-goers number is at 30%. Hillary leads amongst older voters, Bernie amongst younger voters. In short, if Bernie's going to win, he's going to need to have a great turnout game. He's going to have to do that with a tougher group of caucus-goers to turnout, and a rather average number of "new caucus-goers" coming out right now.
• In case you think there is an intensity gap in Iowa? Both have over 80% approval, she has a narrow lead on the question of "enthusiasm" for one of them being nominee.
• Yes, this race is within the margin of error. Bernie could actually be ahead. When several polls in a row show a narrow lead for a candidate though, I tend to believe it. It's worth entertaining that he might be ahead, but I'm fairly confident in the consistency here, and that it's the Iowa poll.

All of that leads to one conclusion- it's really, really close, but Hillary is likely to win. If Bernie is going to win, he will do so by driving turnout north of 200,000, and winning by a much larger margin in Johnson, Story, and Polk Counties. Hillary can put the race away by holding her own in the east and beating him much worse in Western Iowa than is expected. I'm watching counties like Black Hawk (Waterloo), Dubuque, Scott (Davenport), and Linn (Cedar Rapids), all quite large, and all being counties where I could see either of them doing very well. 

The bottom line? Hillary managed to stabilize the race in Iowa over the last month, and probably leads a very narrow race. Bernie can still win Iowa, but it's going to be considerably harder than it looked a few weeks ago.