Some Key Things to Watch in the Democratic Battle for Iowa

Des Moines is a really wonderful city. Here's the capitol.

The winner of the Democratic Caucus in Iowa might end up deciding the way the race for the Democratic nomination goes. We are under two weeks now from the February 1st caucus, and it's really close. If Hillary Clinton wins the Iowa Caucuses, she may roll to the nomination. If Bernie Sanders wins in Iowa, he may be able to sweep the first two, or maybe more states, and knock her off her feet. Polls suggest it's close though, so what should we watch for?

1. Martin O'Malley's supporters and their second choice- Iowa Starting Line explains this much better than me, but on caucus night you don't always get to support your candidate of choice in the Democratic Party. If your candidate does not have 15% of that caucus site, they are declared non-viable, and you have to pick someone else (or no one at all). That is likely to happen to O'Malley in a lot of places. Polling is few and far between on this, though the one that does exist suggests Sanders benefits here. If it's truly a single digit contest, this will matter.
2. Northeast Iowa- Eastern Iowa in general is the more liberal half, and Bernie Sanders should do rather well here. Northeast Iowa is a little different though. Dubuque and Waterloo are both Catholic-esque, blue-collar centers, with a viable labor presence and less ideological tilt. Barack Obama crushed Hillary Clinton in these areas last time, and there are pockets of Joe Biden loyalists up here. If Clinton is going to win, she needs to do well up here.
3. Independents- The Iowa Caucus is unique to many voters around the country because you can declare your party that day. Independents can show up and choose a candidate. Conventional wisdom for a long time was that they would caucus in the Republican side, because it's more interesting. With the Democratic contest narrowing, and the GOP contest growing more and more conservative, that's in question now. Who will they back?
4. Greater Des Moines- The Iowa Caucus "weights" counties by their size and Democratic performance. Polk County, home of Des Moines, is the runaway largest county in the state, and has some fairly progressive people in it. The counties around it are not as large, but they are significant and combined up with Polk, make up a very large minority of the delegates overall. If either candidate can win this region cleanly, they probably will win the caucus. Clinton is expected to win in Western Iowa, and Sanders should do well in Eastern Iowa. The center may break the tie.
5. College Towns- Howard Dean made Iowa City, Ames, Des Moines, Cedar Falls, Waverly, Grinnell, and other college towns centerpieces of his strategy in 2004, and he failed. In 2008, President Obama did the same thing, and it paid off huge for him. In 2016, Bernie Sanders has a commanding lead amongst the younger generation, and will look to repeat President Obama's performance. A good college program can swing Johnson, Story, Black Hawk, Polk, Poweshiek, Bremer, Dubuque, and Linn counties, potentially, to name a few. This will be crucial to Sanders' chances.

These are just a few keys to the Iowa Caucus, but they are good storylines to watch. One other thing to watch? The Des Moines Register. Their endorsement will be a major feather to one of the candidate's caps. If they poll again before the caucus (they just did one that had Clinton up 2%), that will also be worth watching- they're almost never wrong. With the race this close, I hope they do one more, just to see if it's still moving.

Either way, it's close in Iowa. Hopefully this helps you watch better.